The toolbox is empty. Russia knows this. Biden knows this. Blinken knows this. CNN knows this. The only ones who aren’t aware of this are the American people, says Scott Ritter.
By Scott Ritter
Special to Consortium News
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, in a hastily scheduled, 90-minute summit in Geneva yesterday, after which both sides lauded the meeting as worthwhile because it kept the door open for a diplomatic resolution to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. What “keeping the door open” entails, however, represents two completely different realities.
For Blinken, the important thing appears to be process, continuing a dialogue which, by its very essence, creates the impression of progress, with progress being measured in increments of time, as opposed to results.
A results-oriented outcome was not in the books for Blinken and his entourage; the U.S. was supposed to submit a written response to Russia’s demands for security guarantees as spelled out in a pair of draft treaties presented to the U.S. and NATO in December. Instead, Blinken told Lavrov the written submission would be provided next week.
In the meantime, Blinken primed the pump of expected outcomes by highlighting the possibility of future negotiations that addressed Russian concerns (on a reciprocal basis) regarding intermediate-range missiles and NATO military exercises.
But under no circumstances, Blinken said, would the U.S. be responding to Russian demands against NATO expanding to Ukraine and Georgia, and for the redeployment of NATO forces inside the territory of NATO as it existed in 1997.
Blinken also spent a considerable amount of time harping on the danger of a imminent military invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces said to be massing along the Ukraine-Russian border. He pointed out that any military incursion by Russia, not matter what size, that violated the territorial integrity of Ukraine, would be viewed as a continuation of the Russian “aggression” of 2014 and, as such, trigger “massive consequences” which would be damaging to Russia.
Blinken’s restatement of a position he has pontificated on incessantly for more than a month now was not done for the benefit of Lavrov and the Russian government, but rather for an American and European audience which had been left scratching their collective heads over comments made the day before by President Joe Biden which suggested that the U.S. had a range of options it would consider depending on the size of a Russian incursion.
“My guess is he [Russian President Vladimir Putin] will move in, he has to do something,” Biden said during a press briefing on Wednesday. While presenting a Russian invasion as inevitable, Biden went on to note that Putin “will be held accountable” and has “never have seen sanctions like the ones I promised will be imposed” if Russia were, in fact, to move against Ukraine. Biden spoke of deploying additional U.S. military forces to eastern Europe, as well as unspecified economic sanctions.
Biden then, however, hedged his remarks, noting that the scope and scale of any U.S. response would depend on what Russia did. “It’s one thing,” Biden said, “if it’s a minor incursion and we end up having to fight about what to do and not do.”
Almost immediately the Washington establishment went into overdrive to correct what everyone said was a “misstatement” by Biden, with Biden himself making a new statement the next day, declaring that he had been “absolutely clear with President Putin. He has no misunderstanding, any, any assembled Russian units move across the Ukrainian border, that is an invasion,” and that there should be “no doubt at all that if Putin makes this choice, Russia will pay a heavy price.”
And just in case the President was not clear enough, Blinken reiterated that point following his Friday meeting with Lavrov.
Immutable
The U.S. narrative about Russia and Ukraine was immutable; Russia was hell bent on invading, and there would be massive consequences if Russia acted out on its intent. This was no idle threat, Blinken said, but rather represented the unified position of the United States and its allies and partners.
Or was it? In a telling admission, CNN’s White House correspondent, John Harwood, stated that the “minor incursions” statement by Biden was harmless, because (Harwood said) Putin already knew through sources that this was, in fact, the U.S. position. As for Europe and Ukraine, their collective confusion and outrage was merely an act, a posture they had to take for public consumption, since the optics of Biden’s statement “sounds bad.”
In short, the lack of an agreed-upon strategy on how to deal with a Russian incursion/invasion of Ukraine was an open secret for everyone except the U.S. and European publics, who being fed a line of horse manure to assuage domestic political concerns over being seen as surrendering to Russian demands.
Biden and his administration are old hands at lying to the American public when it comes to matters of national security. One only need look to Biden’s July 23, 2021, phone call with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani for a clear precedent into this inability to speak openly and honestly about reality on the ground. “I need not tell you,” Biden told Ghani, “the perception around the world and in parts of Afghanistan, I believe, is that things are not going well in terms of the fight against the Taliban. And there is a need,” Biden added, “whether it is true or not, there is a need to project a different picture.”
This, in a nutshell, is the essence of the posture taken by the Biden administration on Ukraine. Blinken has indicated that the U.S. has a toolbox filled with options that will deliver “massive consequences” to Russia should Russia invade Ukraine. These “tools” include military options, such as the reinforcement of NATO’s eastern flank with additional U.S. troops, and economic options, such as shutting down the NordStream 2 pipeline and cutting Russia off from the SWIFT banking system. All these options, Blinken notes, have the undivided support of U.S. European allies and partners.
Public opening session between Lavrov and Blinken on Friday. (Ruptly screenshot.)
The toolbox is everywhere, it seems—Biden has referred to it, as has White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki. Blinken has alluded to it on numerous occasions.
There’s only one problem—the toolbox, it turns out, is empty.
While the Pentagon is reportedly working on a series of military options to reinforce the existing U.S. military presence in eastern Europe, the actual implementation of these options would neither be timely nor even possible. One option is to move forces already in Europe; the U.S. Army maintains one heavy armored brigade in Europe on a rotational basis and has a light armored vehicle brigade and an artillery brigade stationed in Germany. Along with some helicopter and logistics support, that’s it.
Flooding these units into Poland would be for display purposes only—they represent an unsustainable combat force that would be destroyed within hours, if not days, in any large-scale ground combat against a Russian threat.
The U.S. can deploy a second heavy armored brigade to Poland which would fall in on prepositioned equipment already warehoused on Polish soil. This brigade would suffer a similar fate if matched up against the Russian army. The U.S. can also deploy an airborne brigade. They, too, would die.
There are no other options available to deploy additional U.S. heavy forces to Europe on a scale and in a timeframe that would be meaningful. The problem isn’t just the deployment of forces from their bases in the U.S. (something that would takes months to prepare for), but the sustainability of these forces once they arrived on the ground in Europe. Food, ammunition, water, fuel—the logistics of war is complicated, and not resolved overnight.
In short, there is no viable military option, and Biden knows this.
Empty Sanctions Too
The U.S. has no sanctions plan that can survive initial contact with the enemy, which in this case is the collective weakness of the post-pandemic economies of both Europe and the U.S.; the over-reliance of Europe on Russian-sourced energy, and the vulnerability of democratically elected leaders to the whim of a consumer-based constituency. Russia can survive the impact of any sanctions regime the U.S. is able to scrape together—even those targeting the Russian banking system—far longer than Europe can survive without access to Russian energy.
This is a reality that Europe lives with, and while U.S. policy makers might think hard-hitting sanctions look good on paper, the reality is that whatever passes for U.S.-European unity today would collapse in rapid order when the Russian pipelines were shut down. The pain would not just be limited to Europe, either—the U.S. economy would suffer as well, with sky-high fuel prices and a stock market collapse that would put the U.S. into an economic recession, if not outright depression.
The political cost that would be incurred by Biden and, by extension, the Democrats, would be fatal to any hope that might remain for holding onto either house of Congress in 2022, or the White House in 2024. It would be one thing if Biden and his national security team were honest and forthright about the real consequences of declaring the equivalent of economic war on Russia. It is another thing altogether to speak only of the pain sanctions would cause Russia, with little thought, if any, to the real consequences that will be paid on the home front.
Americans should never forget that Russia has been laboring under severe U.S. sanctions since 2014, with zero effect. Russia knows what could be coming and has prepared. The American people wallow in their ignorance, believing at face value what they are told by the Biden administration, and echoed by a compliant mainstream media.
Propaganda About ‘Propaganda’
One of the great ironies of the current crisis is that, on the eve of the Blinken-Lavrov meeting in Geneva, the U.S. State Department published a report on Russian propaganda, decrying the role played by state-funded outlets such as RT and Sputnik in shaping public opinion in the United States and the West (in the interest of full disclosure, RT is one of the outlets that I write for.)
The fact that the State Department would publish such a report on the eve of a meeting which is all about propagating the big lie—that the U.S. has a plan for deterring “irresponsible Russian aggression”—while ignoring the hard truth: this is a crisis derived solely from the irresponsible policies of the U.S. and NATO over the past 30 years.
While a compliant mainstream American media unthinkingly repeated every warning and threat issued by Biden and Blinken to Russia over the course of the past few days, the Russian position has been largely ignored. Here’s a reminder of where Russia stands on its demands for security guarantees: “We are talking about the withdrawal of foreign forces, equipment, and weapons, as well as taking other steps to return to the set-up we had in 1997 in non-NATO countries,” the Russian Foreign Ministry declared in a bulletin published after the Lavrov-Blinken meeting. “This includes Bulgaria and Romania.”
Blinken has already said the U.S. will reject this.
The toolbox is empty. Russia knows this. Biden knows this. Blinken knows this. CNN knows this. The only ones who aren’t aware of this are the American people.
The consequences of a U.S. rejection of Russia’s demands will more than likely be war.
If you think the American people are ready to bear the burden of a war with Russia, think again.
Scott Ritter is a former U.S. Marine Corps intelligence officer who served in the former Soviet Union implementing arms control treaties, in the Persian Gulf during Operation Desert Storm, and in Iraq overseeing the disarmament of WMD.
The views expressed are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of Consortium News.
Russia & China will prevail because they are adopting Sun Tzu’s War strategy? “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without having to fight”? That’s the Russian way of doing things unless pushed! America is also adopting Sun Tzu’s advice as well which is “In chaos there is opportunities” or what’s otherwise known as American Diplomacy! Unfortunately the US & its Western Vassals have gone overboard in the Chaos department & lost the plot, running around like chickens with their heads cut off by beating the drums towards World War 3?You’d have thought America had learnt from its disastrous mistakes in Vietnam & Afghanistan & other places but this Nation seems to be pathologically MORONIC, STUPID & DUMB & incapable of learning from DEFEAT? I believe that Russia & China need to prioritise the destruction of the American Dollar Hegemony, this is the main reason why America gets away with its Warmongering, by printing endless dollars to infinity to fund its out of control MIC without going Bankrupt? The entire World subsidises & enables America to behave like a Tyrant without suffering the Financial consequences? Russia & China must take away America’s capacity to FUND neverending wars by destroying their Worlds Reserve currency status which would cripple their capability to fund their Warmongering! America’s incessant need to control every Nation on Earth is nearing a tipping point, we are seeing it now in Global events & China & Russia won’t be putting up with American Geopolitical Games & nonsense any longer! Enough is enough!
Thank you for this great writeup. I only hope more people will read this here in Canada and oppose the steps the government will do. Sending young soldiers in a situation where they only come out in body bags. Hope some sane people with influence will stop this western made madness!
I love Scott’s take on the empty tool box. I’d add, the only thing emptier than our tool box is the heads of the people carrying it around.
Why is the focus on Ukraine and Eastern Europe? Russia’s main enemy is America. Shouldn’t they be reinstalling nukes in Cuba but even that would please America’s establishment because it would give them even more reason to have a ridiculously huge defense budget. The U.S. Establishment has really taken their forward defense grift to heart, and they don’t even consider Russia leveling Washington D.C. with nuclear weapons. We live in interesting times. I can’t imagine America’s war profiting grifters would make a deal with Russia that respected Russia’s security interests. They’ve got Russia pegged as a chicken and so far they’ve been right. I’m surprised they blinked on barring Russia from SWIFT. That was an extraordinary show of awareness from grifters that appear to be unaware professional liars.
A sane option would be arms control and to respect Russia’s sphere of influence, but there is no weapon sales in that. America just wants to sell weapon systems. If we had competent leaders, they could thread the needle so the security of all would be respected, but there is no money in that. Militarism is a profitable gig for grifters that would otherwise be working low wage jobs. They’ll fight tooth and nail to keep their precious enemy. They are on full display with possible military deployments and faux diplomacy (maybe I should give them more credit like Ray McGovern has). It’s Russia’s move. Washington D.C. loves to do pretend diplomacy, ask the Iranians.
Let me give you this great quote to help put things in perspective…
…
“Russia plans to engage its nuclear weapons not against those countries where it was launched against Russia, but against the mastermind cities where all the decisions were made.
To be exact, it is Washington, New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and numerous other American cities.
Please fully understand, in case American nuclear weapons (or dual-purpose weapons) are launched from, eg. Taiwan, or Poland, the Russian response will be to hit New York or Washington.”
-Russian Duma deputy, Yevgeny Fyodorov.
…
This is Chinese policy as well.
Thanks for the reply. That is an interesting quote. Of course, Russia and China would respond to an American nuclear first strike. I would expect the opposite to occur too.
America just gave Ukraine $200 million more in military aid. It’s kind of in NATO already. Someone is making a lot of money from this tension. I haven’t seen Russia give a reason why American war profiteering grifters should quit militarily surrounding Russia besides Russians don’t like it. A war in Ukraine would be fun for the psychopaths that run America. They’d apply more sanctions on Russia, make money giving Ukrainians military arms as they pray for a quagmire, and teach Americans to be obsessed with Ukraine instead of their own destitution. If they lost Ukraine it would be an inconvenience to them but ultimately they’ll continue their behavior. They sit comfortably in North America without a worry with no reason to change their behavior towards Russia. In fact, they are emboldened to ramp up their militarism. They know Russia isn’t going to do anything to them personally because Russia doesn’t want to be bombed to smithereens either despite how miserable it is with its enemy militarily grifting on its border.
Besides Russia would need China’s help to give America a two front war that it would lose. Their safest option is to pull the economic rug from under America. I’ve wondered if the talks are Putin’s way of going through the motions in order to show his people and the world the character of America’s leadership, but so what? It would be out of character for America’s leaders to be reasonable.
Russia & The Former Soviet Union suffered 25 million dead at the hands of Imperialism’s worst crime of the 20th Century: The Nazi Invaders & Fascist Collaborators in Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and dozens of other countries perpetrated ‘Crimes Against Humanity’. Russia has not only The Right to stop the current Imperial aggression, but The Duty to do so. And those of us inside The U.S and The NATO countries who know the history have duty to Speak-Out and Fight-Back.
This article is what might be called varnished Ritter (and well worth the read). The unvarnished I happened to hear in a podcast over the weekend (The Critical Hour) with Scott R. and Ray McG. (It’s also embedded in Ray’s latest article for Antiwar)
Ritter makes a compelling point from a military perspective, namely that Russia isn’t going to waste much more time while Blinken and Biden do their winkin’, blinkin’ an’ nod routine as U.S./NATO continue to push weapons and fighters into Ukraine. He asserts the U.S. already has crossed Moscow’s red lines for the region and that unless it backs way off Russia will use its present military superiority to lay waste Ukraine’s infrastructure and manpower post haste and leave it, as Scott somewhat colorfully describes it, a smoking ruin (that’s paraphrase). He makes a compelling case that there’s nothing the U.S./NATO in its present capacity can do to stop them militarily, short of using nuclear weapons.
But then what happens after that (in either the lesser or greater smoking ruin case)?
Ray disagrees and thinks Putin is too clever to be baited into use of force and that he will work with whatever concessions the U.S. offers.
Personally, what do I know but that it looks like a fulcrum of teetering forces that could tip any which way? And I totally agree with the thrust of Susan’s comment and can add nothing more to it.
Biden doesn’t know which way is straight up. His handlers may, but not he.
Jesus Christ! What is the matter with these fucking assholes? Don’t they get the fact that they will destroy the entire world playing their god damned stupid military games? These jerks are not immune to nuclear war – none of us are! Talk about propaganda – the USA is the worst at not telling the American people the truth and Americans are just fucking lemmings jumping off the proverbial cliff…
Everyone is ignoring the reason for Donbas to exist. It is 90% Russian speaking area.
–
Bogdan Boutkevitch (Ukrainian journalist): “Ok, you ask me ‘How can this be happening?’ Well, it happens because Donbass, in general, is not simply a region in a very depressed condition, it has got a whole number of problems, the biggest of which is that it is severely overpopulated with people nobody has any use for. Trust me I know perfectly well what I am saying. If we take, for example, just the Donetsk oblast, there are approximately 4 million inhabitants, at least 1.5 million of which are superfluous. That’s what I mean: we don’t need to [try to] ‘understand’ Donbass, we need to understand Ukrainian national interests.
Donbass must be exploited as a resource, which it is. I don’t claim to have a quick solution recipe, but the most important thing that must be done – no matter how cruel it may sound – is that there is a certain category of people that must be exterminated.”
Transcript: “It’s perfectly simple. You need to kill 1.5 million people in Donbass”
Translated from Ukrainian by Valentina Lisitsa.
Video of Boutkevitch’s remarks: hXXps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9SOVarOFJk
–
That genocide is continuing across the Ukraine to this day, Russian language is no longer in schools or government.
The Ukrainian Government passed a law authorising the Military to return Donbas and Crimea to Ukraine by force, this means killing another 3-4 million Russian speakers. Why would Russia allow this?
The US hegemony and economy is going to crater. The debt (at leat $96 trillion) cannot be paid, US will limp along printing money until inflation equals Zimbabwe and then people will starve. The US elite and bankers and politicians need someone-something to blame. Covid has failed as an excuse so they need an external enemy. Obama was to make it China, but China is too close and there will be no “NATO” to protect the US. So it has to be Russia.
Russia has been incredibly patient with the west. It is now over.
Putin has drawn the line and is saying : “shut up or put up.”
Like all bullies, the US will walk away muttering under its’ breath.
For a hegemony the U.S has been, it’s difficult (although necessary) for them to accept reality as the rest of the world see it.They (U.S) think or see the demands by Russia as a would be acceptance of defeat for them Yes,it would be a defeat of the hegemony but necessary for the U.S itself, Ukraine, EU and International security,peace and stability.Russia, certainly,will not back down on its demands as it would also cast them as weak and forever would live in the shadows of the U.S and NATO. However,if the U.S policy makers are wise enough,they can negotiate with Russia give in to their demands but retain their respect (albeit diminished a bit) but will would be viewed as a super power which is for International peace and stability. But,if it squanders this chance to project that other side as mentioned above,it would go down in history as a destructive power which wants to go down with the rest of the world.Therefore, it’s not yet too late for the U.S to show statesmen leadership not only to Americans but whole world.
One hundred percent correct in every particular.
The problem is that it appears that the CIA and the neocons and the Ukrainian hard liners are calling the shots. A war between Ukraine and Russia is (almost) inevitable. Only if Biden actually wants to rein in Ukraine can the war be avoided. And there is zero evidence of Biden wanting to do so, despite all the Pollyannas claiming that the mere fact of Blinken providing a “written response” to Lavrov next week is some huge sign of improvement. It is highly likely that there will be some Ukraine provocation in the next couple months, at the very least, if not a full-scale Ukraine attack on Donbass.
It appears the the presence of the nine (or ten depending on who’s counting) NATO military exercises to be held in Ukraine this year starting in February – with thousands of NATO troops, and hundreds of ships and aircraft – has been crafted to attempt to derail the Russian operational plan for dealing with a Ukraine offensive, or perhaps even to serve as cover for that offensive, or even as assistance for it. If so, the risk if that Russia will not hesitate to engage the NATO forces if they get in the way or engage Russian forces in any way. Despite Ukraine not being a member of NATO, and thus not covered by Chapter 6 of the NATO Charter which denotes what NATO forces apply in Chapter 5, if NATO squeals at losing some significant number of NATO forces, they probably will still invoke Chapter 5, which might force the US to insert itself. I find this doubtful, but anything is possible. And the CIA and the neocons may have intentionally set this scenario up.
Blinken has explicitly said that written response will not agree with Russian’s central concern – NATO expansion. Instead, it will address a range of side issues that Blinken things the US “can work with Russia” on. But the Russians have already said they will not be distracted by any such side issues. They will see Blinken’s response as non-responsive. At that point, expect the talks to end completely.
The State Department has Blikin and Nuland and we got Scott. I’m thinking Scott is the better source of reliable information.
We see how the German Vice Admiral felt about this story. Pretty good company to be in.
Thanks Scott and CN
All one needs to do to understand the hysteria created by the west about Ukraine is look up ” WEST EXECS”
Thank you Tony. I just looked them up. It is scary. Hiding in plain sight just like NED.
Here is a link to a The Intercept article about this unsavory organization that reminds one of a Democrat version of PNAC….
hXXps://theintercept.com/2021/07/06/westexec-biden-administration/
Right on, Mr. Ritter!
The only ones who aren’t aware of this are the American people, says Scott Ritter. WRONG! The Smart One won’t say anything and the Dumb One won’t know any better.
Very well said: “the U.S. and European publics, (who) being fed a line of horse manure …”.
The problem is that the public is addicted to horse manure, without which it cannot live. I see that in so many in my friends, family and acquaintance circle. There is plenty of good and nutritious food available (as at CN), but junkies do need their daily dope served by the corporate presstitutes. Interestingly, and sadly, hardly any of my otherwise intelligent acquaintances even know that CN exists. Dad, sad….
The role wittingly played by the corporate media in keeping the public ignorant and in manipulating public opinion is disgraceful, bordering on criminal. From the publishers, editors and producers all the way down to beat reporters, they are all complicit. By any measure, they are no better than the state-run media in the USSR.
It did not take the US long after its chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan to create a new area of conflict and geopolitical tension to justify its massive mis-directing of taxpayers’ money to the big armaments manufacturers and suppliers. The US has to have war in progress or ‘on the boil’ all the time, and the compliant corporate media, like a pack of hyenas, build up an atmosphere of war hysteria. So much for independent journalism! The fact is that Obama, Biden and Hilary Clinton overthrew the previous government in the Ukraine and installed a regime of neo-Nazis, anti-Russian fanatics and Wall Street stooges in its place, reducing that country to a plundered colony and plaything of the US military-industrial complex. Now the Ukraine is forced to squander its money buying weapons it cannot afford to fight a war it does not need and cannot win against its Slavic brothers. The USA has revealed itself to be the most aggressive, militaristic, imperialistic and quasi-fascist regime on the planet. The US is the greatest threat to world peace. From their safe position on the other side of the Atlantic they are trashing Europe and reducing the Ukraine to one more of their failed puppet-states. It’s time that European countries freed themselves from the shackles of American control and acted with self-respect. They are the ones who will be left with the carnage and wreckage that the US is creating in the Ukraine and in its relationship with Russia; the US can withdraw into its “splendid isolation” under the next president. Germany, as usual, will be left with the problem of taking in refugees from America’s wars. The arrogance and hypocrisy of the US in refusing to acknowledge Russia’s legitimate geopolitical strategic interests stinks to heaven.
Very well said, Stephen. It is not easy to bring all this information into one paragraph, but you did it.
I feel the same way about this sorry mess this country is in. But it is all deliberate and by design. Even people with delusions of grandeur can’t be that stupid as to want war with Russia. A war that can easily spread to include China and Iran. On the other hand, this is America in which Blinkin’ Ant (Antony Blinken) gets to play Captain America and the people get to endorse presidents that are chosen for them by the real rulers of this country.
I must admit sadly that it s hard to find a wise and intellectual thinking American, therfore first I want to congratulate you for your wise and thoughtful ideas. I am from Germany and in all discussions with americans I feel a taste of superiority and superficial thinking.
I am astonished about their neglect that russia is nuclear armed superpower which can in war end life on earth as we know.
If you talk all the time your opponent as unimportant and not to take serious than you got the public opinion easily that you do not be afraid about russia but we should all take russia serious when there is conflict with russia.
So first we must take russia demands for it s security very serious to have our security !
War is no option with russia and that must be clear to any fool !
Ukraine was not and will not be our main interest. That s the spehre of interest of russia and let it be. We can no have all regions in the world in our sphere of interest. We must differ between important and not so important. And honestly europe did never want ukraine be part of europe and nato because we want to avoid conflict with russia at the very beginning and it s wise to do so. The US must stop thinking it can control every country and region. Simple said avoid russia and try not to be close to russia for our own sake
I am from Germany too and agree on every point with you and thanks to Mr . Ritter for his analsis.
i have been following this story since 2014 and it seems to me that russia has shown a lot of patience and restraint.
I too have been following this subject since the first EuroMaidan and I too am impressed by Russia’s patience. I often wonder how USSR period Russian leaders would have exercised the same patience and restraint. For example, Nikita Khrushchev is said to have beaten the heel of his shoe on his table at the UN. Khrushchev, by the way, was the one who gave Crimea to Ukraine as a present (without asking the people) so they would vote to keep him as secretary general of the polit-bureau. We are very fortunate to have real grownups making policy and decisions in Russia.
As I have noted before the expression “All options are on the table” is code for “We don’t know what to do next”
Just an add on from overseas indies in Europe – Nordstream II was paid for by Europe and from what I glean, Putin wasn’t exactly all excited about it (maybe he understood how difficult it would be contending with the global bully). It’s up to the Europeans to have thrown money down a pipe for nothing, or to start using it regardless of the environmentalists denouncing it (absolutely, but once an alternative is in place so Europeans don’t freeze). Putin apparently is, however, quite pleased with the new ones being built on the eastern side of the great landmass called Eurasia!
“The consequences of a U.S. rejection of Russia’s demands will more than likely be war.”
The one big error in this article. We’ve been here before, in the days of the Cold War with the Soviet Union – which included Ukraine. There were far worse crises, the starring example being the Cuban Missile Crisis. Both sides backed down. Why? MAD- Mutual Assured Destruction. An insane thing to rely on, but it worked before and it will work again. It’s the same reason the US Navy can provoke China: both sides are constrained by nuclear weapons. Imagine a Russian nuclear attack on Eastern EUrope: Russia is IN Eastern Europe, and downwind. They aren’t crazy and they aren’t going to do that.
In reality, both sides will make some quiet concessions and wipe the fear-sweat off. Which may not make Biden look good; but Americans don’t vote based on foreign policy, unless there are a lot of bodies coming home.
And no, I’m not normally optimistic.
You are correct that Americans don’t vote on foreign policies but one thing that has become worse in the last few years is the severe polarization in the society. If Biden is seen as backing down, you can just envision the news coverage. Dems will lose the midterm and we will see the return of right wing fascists wanna be (not Trump but worse). I do not vote for either parties (prefer Green) but these are some scary times. I hope you are correct but I am not so optimistic.
I strongly suspect this entire debacle is about posturing and buying political capital. Biden stands to lose Democratic support in both the House and Senate next year and will have his hands tied on all domestic issues. Looking tough remains his only asset and the only thing that will get him reelected.
On the other hand, I strongly doubt Putin has any intention of invading Ukraine. It is far more likely that the current war between the Kiev and the separatists in the Donbass region adjacent to the Russian border will spill across the border. That would be reason enough for Putin to place troops along the border. I certainly would if I were in his position. (I wouldn’t want you idiots duking it out in my back yard.)
The biggest threat I see is that NATO officials ignore Putin’s warning and move into Ukraine. That would truly be crossing a red line. Putin’s demand that they not do so is perfectly reasonable given NATO’s hostility toward Russia. If I were in his position, I would make it abundantly clear that I didn’t want NATO forces right on my border. (How would you feel if your house was surrounded by an armed hostile mob.) Hopefully, cooler heads will prevail in NATO and put a halt into its eastward expansion.
If the US does not remove its troops and weapons away from Russia’s border, I expect to see Russian and Chinese troops and weapons begin to get much closer to US borders via ship and in Cuba. By what logic could the US protest? The idiots in Washington could be unleashing a military free for all if it doesn’t trigger a nuclear nightmare first.
Logic?
It is embarrassing and frightening that our lives are so recklessly put in danger by having a cadre of shallow blowhards led by Biden and Blinken represent us in this crisis. Russia’s demands are all reasonable. They have been made necessary for Russia[s security due to 30 years of aggression by the U.S. and its Western allies. Cessation of that aggression is the best course of action. That would properly resolve the crisis. However, I don’t think that anyone representing the U.S. is wise enough to follow that course of action. The U.S. does not practice diplomacy. All its representatives know how to do is insult, threaten and bully others. Putting the likes of Biden and Blinken up against Putin and Lavrov is a laughable mismatch. The lack of probity and competence at the top of our government is a trend which is not encouraging — George W Bush, Hillary Clinton, Trump, Biden, Blinken, Nuland, etc. I left out Obama because he does have the necessary intellect and at least some sense of history. But, then, he was also a war monger and bragged about how good he was at “killing people”, not to mention the bailouts…and a long list of other misdeeds. But I digress. I do wonder if there are any adults in Washington, D.C. If there are any, I hope that someone will call them and put them in charge of this mess the neocon fools have gotten us into.
BRAVO……you summed it all up . I agree wholeheartedly, thank you..
There must be some adults in DC somewhere – but they’re kept out of the State Dept which seems to be speaking on behalf of the profiteers/warmongers.
Any spoken initiative that sounds like an effort to use Responsible Statecraft is quickly self-censored and walked back with the usual threats seemingly to appease the war machine
Our future and that of the planet don’t seem to be of concern to them.
The US is caught in Thucydides’s Trap. The only real question is if they will stand down or will they double-down on the stupidty that got them here.
Reference Forrest Gump: “Stupid is as stupid does.”
Based on our friends in the EU, there’s only a rare few who are obsessing over the US/Russia issue. Ditto for most of the US population.
So while some in the press: reporters/journalist/geo-political observers write endlessly about this subject matter, the vast majority of several million EU/US citizens go about the business of living.
This is especially true of Western European citizens, even though they are far closer, geographically, than the Americans.
Based on reading history, we are not at a crucial point in caring about the issue.
To the extent certain of Muh European Allies(R) are getting cold feet.
1. Germany in particular stands to suffer if gas supplies are curtailed. Even if Russian gas were to be replaced by ‘Merikun Freedom Molecules(R), the infrastructure to do so is not in place and will take time and money to construct. Even if that infrastructure is built, gas will be much more expensive, and Europe will be at the mercy of a master that has a nasty habit of dragging its vassals into its foreign adventures.
Of course, the hypocrisy of European Greens replacing a reliable supply of natural gas via existing pipelines (which pipelines are pretty much carbon-neutral) with future LPG deliveries by supertanker (which are some of the biggest carbon emitters in existence), all because their American masters ordered them to do so, is too rich for words.
2. Expect a new wave of refugees. While these refugees are white Europeans, if Europe accepts this wave of refugees, doing so will make it that much harder to reject the wave of brown non-European refugees that will surely result from America’s future imperialist wars.
The European Vassals (ex Poland and the Baltics, which are only too happy to cut off their own noses if doing so might somehow spite Russia) cannot be too jazzed about the prospect of 1. or 2., all as the results of a war that in no way benefits them.
3. Another NATO failure will surely damage its credibility like nothing else.
The other people who are unaware of this are our congresscritters which is far more dangerous.
One can only imagine what the world would be like if, in 1990, we had heeded Gorbachev’s desire to incorporate Russia into a Western alliance. Instead, the lunatic cold-warriors chose to pursue “full-spectrum dominance,” and in so doing, a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for peace was squandered. But don’t look to the American media to pursue this angle. They’re too busy with their blood-curdling headlines about the Evil Empire 2.0.
Yes.
This is a tragedy for Europe.
We missed the unique opportunity for a prosperous harmonic European future.
Where’s the profit in that for the US merchants of death?
I remember well when the Iron Curtain and the Wall came down in Germany. The first who went East were the looters from the West. They took everything they could. Same as in the former USSR .
What Ritter does does not address, and which seems to be ignored by other independent journalists is the framing of a discussion as to what constitutes a Russian invasion or military incursion. Blinken and the MSM refer to continued Russian aggression. I assume this is in reference to the establishment of the break away provinces, now republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. Biden slipped and spoke of no U.S or NATO response if Russia had a minor incursion. Does this mean a Russian military response to the probably partially controlled Ukrainian Nazi units stationed on the “eastern front” who are hell bent on sabotaging Nord Stream 2? It seems we are at a point where Nord Stream 2 is a reality and its disruption, the result of a Russian response to a military provocation, would jeopardize western alliances. The continued discussions in Geneva signal to me that the U.S. accepts this reality, if only begrudgingly, but has a problem with the crowd it supports in Kiev, the eastern front, Riga, etc.
April Glaspie moment
The situation is ripe for a black flag operation to tip this confrontation into war. Such an incident could sponsored by interests that have not yet been mentioned. We need to rethink the recent history of the break-up of the Soviet Union and ask why that event has lead to re-kindled tensions between Russia and the West. The catastrophe of the Versailles agreements was known to bear the fruit of WWII. That was why America offered the Marshall Plan to the defeated countries of that 2nd war. Why then was there no comparable plan of economic rehabilitation and education offered to the Soviet nations when their communist economies failed? Why was Russia left to be eaten by the wolves (read: Oligarchs)? Who were those Oligarchs?…and why were they been termed “Oligarchs”? An economically healthy Russia (and Soviet States) could have been a win/win solution for most of the West…and the world. So why didn’t this happen? Why has the West continued to ostracize Russia? Who has this benefited from teasing the bear in the cage?
It wasn’t just Russian oligarchs that fed off the Soviet carcass but Washington and Wall Street moved in during the Yeltsin days too.
Noted somewhere on the Internet, it’s a possibility that Russia is being “invited” to absorb the Donbass, therefore removing the “conflict” and therefore allowing UA to join NATO.
I do not know if this is the case, Russian speaking people go to the Dnieper and include Odessa…For what concerns NATO, president Putin does not want any part of Ukraine to join it!
another brilliant article by Scott as in the last few days especially amongst his consistent collection. Thank goodness for sane and extremely capable independant analysts and writers.
As always Mr. Ritter is right on and to the point with his facts.
May God help us that Biden and his Neocon warmongers don’t get us into a war with the Russian Bear.
Do they not read history, Russians have always defended their homeland from invaders and have rarely lost. Never corner a bear.
Thanks Consortium News for publishing Scott’s articles on the Ukraine situation. I have found his, and Ray McGovern’s analysis commonly published at AntiWar, most insightful.
I thank them both for their insights.
Not “think again”. But start thinking, because you weren’t. Cheers!!
If Russia can’t be beaten on the ground, as Ritter asserts, then I have to wonder whether these idiots actually think that they can get the upper hand by unleashing a “controlled” nuclear attack on Russian troops. I know it seems MAD, but the neocon psychopaths driving the Biden Administration into war with Russia may very well consider it as the most “rational” response if they want to “win.” I’m also suspicious of the “false flag imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine” propaganda point. In other words, why are they saying this? Is it part of their strategy to bring it on? The anti-Russian neo-Nazi hot heads in Kiev don’t need a false flag. They may very well feel emboldened enough to attack the Donbass, fully expecting that the US will back them up when Russia responds, crying out loud, “See there! We told you so! Russia is invading Ukraine!”
Does Biden son still occupy a “seat” on the Ukraine Gas company in spite of no special expertise or ability to speak the language? Remember when Biden blackmailed Ukraine by with -holding Ukraine Aid? Also, NATO refuses Russia entry in NATO and recall when the US, et. al, held maneuvers on Russia’s border after moving tanks missiles etc to the border? But most importantly, Crimea has Russia’s only access to a warm water port threatening to ice-lock Russia in for winter. But who says international relations have to be “fair” or ethical? Certainly not the “get rich” Bidens who use international relations as the means to put money into family coffers.
Is it not clear from Biden saying that ‘[Putin] has to do something,’ that the US is cornering Russia and therefore Russian concerns are based entirely in reality? Usually people don’t have to do anything if they aren’t being forced to by outside influences. In my mind that statement made the President is an admission that the US is looking for a fight and doing what we can to start one.
Although there are reasons enough; power, money and prestige, for the US military/industrial complex and their government lackeys to push for a new Cold War, I cannot help but think that the drama over Ukraine, and Russia and China especially at this particular time is being fomented by the fossil fuel industries & friends to undermine any real effort to “keep fossil fuels in the ground,” which is the only plan that makes a difference.
Since, without action there is only another eight to ten years before the permafrost feedback loop is slated to kick in, now would be the time to confront, deflect and disrupt any concerted effort at climate change mitigation. Once that permafrost-melting tipping point is reached, which is only one of many but one of the worst (permafrost contains three times the amount of greenhouse gases that are currently in the atmosphere), that is all she wrote. No sense trying after that. Once tipped, there is no turning it off and all those gases will be dumped in a relatively short period of time, like it or not. What is that, an 8C or more degree rise in temperature? That should be fun. Look what 1.2C is doing today. All the super duper fusion reactors, etc. in the world won’t be of any help after that feedback loop kicks in. The only “plan” that matters is cutting emissions by 50% by 2030. If that is not the plan, there is no plan, which it seems was always the Biden admin’s intention. So, let’s go to war instead. After all, “America is back.” Perhaps the only good thing about this will be to demonstrate unequivocally to the world that it’s not only Trump and the GOP that are loony-tunes, it is America itself. Better if Europe and the rest of the world were to realize that now, instead of later.
You would think that the basic requirement for any rational, competent government would be to avoid war, and extinction. And yet, the Biden administration just could not wait to clear the desk of other “piddling matters” so it could get to work on its new Cold War project. The ultimate competent incompetence of small minds and small characters. After all, any fool can destroy things. That takes no special talent or ability. In this the US abounds. In contrast, creating something of value, like a society that works and prospers and evolves to the future, that is true competence, which is certainly not to be found in either the DP or GOP, and not even on the horizon.
I heard Biden say that “We just didn’t anticipate a GOP that would be dedicated to making us fail.” I guess he wasn’t around for the Obama admin… Oh, wait. OMG, the Democratic savior, the competent answer to Trump, the “real America,” yada, yada, yada, blindsided! Then again, it was the Dems themselves who scuttled his already inadequate non-plan. I wonder if they’re going to try using that “Look at the other guy…” slogan for upcoming elections. In the meantime, the world burns and stumbles closer to going out with a bang while “good guy” Biden presides.
In other words, there is no leverage. It is a lose all around proposition for the ne0-libs and friends. Good! Changes are in the air and US domination can no longer continue as is has since the USSR collapsed. The Russia/China alliance is simply too strong for this declining empire to challenge without unimaginable loses. The price is too high to even consider and as such it is time for a reality check if these politicians are even capable of that.
“without unimaginable loses”
The losses are easy to imagine, at least, for the near future. E.g. inflation, lack of certain goods (actually, bare shelves in many departments) etc. Nothing THAT bad, but not palatable to voters.
Spot on analysis. Living here in Germany and watching Blinkin plead to the German public on national TV to send Ukraine weapons and try to pull europe into another was was a bit pathetic.
I’m just happy that Germany has refused to do so.
I suspect you (and most of the German public) were played for suckers. The German government can proclaim loudly they are refusing US requests for German arms shipments (which are not really needed, since the USA, Canada, Poland et al. will provide all the Ukrainian military can handle), while sending lots of non-weaponry military needs, such as field hospitals (announced today), refusing to allow Nord Stream 2 to come on line, hindering trade in other ways, etc.
Me too.
Another great CN assessment. Thank you, Mr. Ritter. One can almost be hopeful. As seems the case, the sanctions would have far more than a chilling effect on Europe–they would be in the deep freeze. Brits are every bit as much propagandized as we fools–Biden/Blinken standing for “western values” against Putin who just can’t wait to invade Ukraine. If he’s so eager, why has he waited? Surely he has held the strategic advantage for years. Stupidity abounds.
I agree with much of what Scott Ritter says except for the final point. I don’t believe that Russia will invade Ukraine, thus there will only be a war if the US/NATO or Kiev authorities start it. There is absolutely no reason for Russia to initiate a war. While Ukraine is a brother country for Russia, as long as the current stalemate stands, Russia can afford to sit back, grab a bowl of popcorn, and watch the US and NATO chase their tail. Ukraine is a failed state already and is descending further into the economic abyss with each passing day. In 2024, the contracts for Ukraine to act as a transit country for Russian gas will expire. It will not be renewed. At some point the US and EU will realize that Ukraine is a hole that they have been throwing money into without having any prospect of a return on their investment. Russia doesn’t need this economic albatross around its neck. Everything that Ukraine used to supply to Russia has already been sourced either domestically or from China. So unless the US starts the war, there will be no war.
FWIW: I don’t think Ritter ever said Russia would initiate invasion of Ukraine. I could be wrong. Folks might want to check out the Pepe Escobar interview on “Moderate Rebels” from last week. He strongly parallels what Ritter says here. However, he also states that if Russia attacks anyone, it will include NATO forces stationed in countries other than Ukraine. If one reads Ritter here carefully, there is nothing NATO can do about it. There will be no response.
The consequences for the American Economy will be dire. You ain’t seen nuttin yet.
Not to forget that just a while back, Ukraine started selling its SOIL. Yep, its that bad.
you are right, Russia should have little interest in starting a war, given Ukraine situation NOW. But leaving Ukraine absorption into NATO running free isn’t a problem of today. it is a problem of tomorrow; Yes, taking Crimea control saved Sevastopol, for the time being, but with Ukraine in NATO, explicitly or implicitly, the Black sea fleet and the Southern front would be indefensible, so next step will be losing control to the west of Armenia, Georgia and the Caucasus area as a whole. This would finish syria and complete Iran surrounding, so that iran could be conveniently iraqized, and free central asia hydrocarbon resources to be routed to western europe. At that point, Russia could only capitulate.
All good points Pete, except that Ritter didn´t say anything about Russia invading Ukraine. He said that if the US/NATO rejects Moscow´s demands, there will likely be war. And there is no reason to think that it would be fought on Ukrainian soil. More likely it will be some of the forward posts in Eastern Europe that will be destroyed. That´s what this is really all about, not Ukraine (for all the reasons you listed).
It´s interesting that Pres. Biden personalizes this… Putin this and Putin that, as if he is the sole decision-maker. It plays pretty well with the portrayal of Putin as a dictator, thug, KGB agent, power hungry despot bent on rebuilding the USSR. It also bolsters Ritter´s point that all this talk is for the domestic audience. We (I am a US citizen) have been well trained to accept this as god´s truth.
“The consequences of a U.S. rejection of Russia’s demands will more than likely be war.”
Scott never said Russia was going to invade Ukraine. Where did you even get that?
I think you are right. Ukrainians (except the north west) and Russians are brothers and sisters. The natural affiliation interrupted by the 2014 us instigated coup will return by sheer gravity.
Considering the reckless aggressive propaganda in the West, one may wonder if perhaps the West wants a war?
Even our Swedish prime minister talks about protecting our western way of living!
Exactly so, and how many times has Russia said this in words even the ignorant masses in the EU and the USA could understand!! Mr Ryabkov said on the first day of “talks” with Sherman “I can’t understand the US obsession with the “proposed”Russian attack on Ukraine . This will not happen and cannot happen. The USA has no legal or political right to tell Russia where to put its own troops on its own soil”. Since then countless accusations, maps,plans, “putin’s desire”….. have filled nearly every Western news outlet. NONE of them relate to facts,just speculation avoiding the Russian clear explanations.
Scott Ritter fully agrees with you as he does not believe that “Russia will invade Ukraine…” He has written so repeatedly. Why would Russia ever do that? The purpose of all her force projection is the inclination of the Bandera Nazis in Ukraine to crush the Donbass and evidently get rid of all things Russia. Unless they are unbelievably idiotic, they will back off and Russia’s mission is accomplished. There is an answer to this crisis: the Minsk agreement, or the Minsk II agreement, that the US so far has failed to honor or seek to implement, choosing instead to further its own way of aggression to fulfill a Russiaphobic fantasy. That the answer will include a backing-off of NATO projections and aggressions is the best hope forward.
As we all know ? The USA needs enemies to survive, the MIC needs enemies to survive. What would the USA do without Russia and China?
An economy based on war cannot survive. The USA must change or die.
It’s long past time to disband this aggressive alliance of militarists called NATO. Its only function is to ensure that member states keep the money flowing to the weapons corporations. As for Russia, anyone with even a smidgeon of historical knowledge from 1812 to 1962 and beyond knows that Putin has good reasons for demanding that the West keep well away from Russian borders.
“… anyone with even a smidgeon of historical knowledge from 1812 to 1962 and beyond knows that Putin has good reasons for demanding that the West keep well away from Russian borders.”
Yes, why is Russia’s numerous invasions from the West never mentioned??
(Rhetorical question)
Russia did not start this pissing contest, the USA did.
Russia is not even really apart of it.The “pissers” are the USA/NATO, whose greed and lust for power drives them, while Russia merely asks for respect for its security, which even they can see is needed or why do they feel the need to lie up against Russia’s borders and tell it to stop non-existent aggression? They have decided Russia is an enemy. Russia has tried for years to be a “partner” and is shunned, sanctioned and treated as if it were unreasonable.
rosemerry: That is very well put, and such a tragedy. Thank you. What is necessary for a future on this planet is mutual respect and cooperation in a multi-polar world. America is ideologically opposed to that for its own selfish reasons (ego). If the world was smart, it would shun this incarnation of America. Certainly, do not expect nor allow America to lead. It cannot even control itself, let alone anything else. In every area, America, driven by its own self-interest-above-all-other-considerations has relinquished any leadership capability. It acts only as a spoiler and should be placed in quarantine until/if its insanity has passed.
For that to happen, this economic model that has been imposed by the western powers need to be dismantled. Most of Asia, African and Latin American countries are bullied into debt by IMF and WB.