For months now, the world has focused on the danger of nuclear war between the United States and Russia. But Iran and Israel could beat them to it.
Anti-aircraft guns guarding Natanz Nuclear Facility, Iran. (Hamed Saber/Wikimedia Commons)
By Scott Ritter
Special to Consortium News
The outbreak of conflict between Iran and Israel appears to have changed Iran’s stance against possessing a nuclear weapon as Israel is poised to strike after Teheran’s retaliation with two major attacks of drones and ballistic and cruise missiles.
Iran has issued at least three statements through official channels since April that has opened the door to the possibility of religious edicts against Iran acquiring nuclear weapons being rescinded.
The circumstances which Iran has said must exist to justify this reversal appear to have now been met.
No mere threats, these statements issued by Teheran should be viewed as declaratory policy indicating Iran has already made the decision to obtain a nuclear weapon; that the means to do so are already in place and that this decision can be implemented in a matter of days once the final political order is given.
The religious fatwa against possessing nuclear weapons was issued in October 2003 by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It reads:
“We believe that adding to nuclear weapons and other types of weapons of mass destruction, such as chemical weapons and biological weapons, are a serious threat to humanity…[w]e consider the use of these weapons to be haram (forbidden), and the effort to protect mankind from this great disaster is everyone’s duty.”
However, the Shia faith holds that fatwas are not inherently permanent, and Islamic jurists can reinterpret the scripture in accord with the needs of time.
Shortly after Iran launched Operation True Promise against Israel in April, Ahmad Haghtalab, an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander responsible for the security for Iran’s nuclear sites, declared:
“If [Israel] wants to exploit the threat of attacking our country’s nuclear centers as a tool to put pressure on Iran, it is possible and conceivable to revise the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear doctrine and policies to deviate from previously declared considerations.”
In May, Kamal Kharrazi, a former foreign minister who advises the Supreme Leader, declared: “We [Iran] have no decision to build a nuclear bomb, but should Iran’s existence be threatened, there will be no choice but to change our military doctrine.”
And earlier this month Iranian lawmakers called for a review of Iran’s defense doctrine to consider adopting nuclear weapons as the risk of escalation with Israel continues to grow. The legislators noted that the Supreme Leader can reconsider the fatwa against nuclear weapons on the grounds that the circumstances have changed.
These statements, seen together, constitute a form of declaratory policy which, given the sources involved, imply that a political decision has already been made to build a nuclear bomb once the national security criterion has been met.
Has the Capability
Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei can reverse the fatwa. (Khamenei.ir, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0)
Iran has for some time now possessed the ability to manufacture and weaponize nuclear explosive devices. Using highly enriched uranium, Iran could construct in a matter of days a simple gun-type weapon that could be used in a ballistic missile warhead.
In June Iran informed the IAEA that it was installing some 1,400 advanced centrifuges at its Fordow facility. Based upon calculations derived from Iran’s on-hand stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium hexaflouride (the feedstock used in centrifuge-based enrichment), Iran could produce enough highly enriched uranium (i.e., above 90 percent) to manufacture 3-5 uranium-based weapons in days.
All that is needed is the political will to do so. It appears that Iran has crossed this threshold, meaning that the calculus behind any Israeli and/or U.S. attack on Iran has been forever changed.
Iran has made no bones about this new reality. In February, the former chief of the Atomic Energy Organization, Ali-Akbar Salehi, stated that Iran has crossed “all the scientific and technological nuclear thresholds” to build a nuclear bomb, noting that Iran had accumulated all the necessary components for a nuclear weapon, minus the highly enriched uranium.
Two weeks later, Javad Karimi Ghodousi, a member of the Iranian parliament’s National Security Commission, declared that if the supreme leader “issues permission, we would be a week away from testing the first [nuclear bomb]“, later adding that Iran “needs half a day or maximum a week to build a nuclear warhead.”
A simple gun-type nuclear weapon would not need to be tested — the “Little Boy“ device dropped on Hiroshima by the U.S. on Aug. 6, 1945 was a gun-type device that was deemed so reliable that it could be used operationally without any prior testing.
Iran would need between 75 and 120 pounds of highly enriched uranium per gun-type device (the more sophisticated the design, the less material would be needed). Regardless, the payload of the Fatah-1 solid-fueled hypersonic missile, which was used in the Oct. 1 attack on Israel, is some 900 pounds—more than enough capacity to carry a gun-type uranium weapon.
Given the fact that the ballistic missile shield covering Israel was unable to intercept the Fatah-1 missile, if Iran were to build, deploy, and employ a nuclear-armed Fatah-1 missile against Israel, there is a near 100 percent certainty that it would hit its target.
Iran would need 3-5 nuclear weapons of this type to completely destroy Israel’s ability to function as a modern industrial nation.
Consequences of Pulling Out of Iran Nuclear Deal
U.S. team on way to JCPOA meeting at U.N., New York City, 2016. (State Department)
This situation came about after President Donald Trump in 2017 withdrew the U.S. from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — the JCPOA, better known as the Iran nuclear deal. The driving factor behind the negotiation of the JCPOA, which took place under President Barack Obama, was to shut down Iran’s pathway to a nuclear weapon. As Obama said,
“Put simply, under this deal, there is a permanent prohibition on Iran ever having a nuclear weapons program and a permanent inspections regime that goes beyond any previous inspection regime in Iran. This deal provides the IAEA the means to make sure Iran isn’t doing so, both through JCPOA-specific verification tools, some of which last up to 25 years, and through the Additional Protocol that lasts indefinitely. In addition, Iran made commitments in this deal that include prohibitions on key research and development activities that it would need to design and construct a nuclear weapon. Those commitments have no end date.”
Early on in his administration, in June 2021, after Trump had already pulled the U.S. out of the deal, President Joe Biden declared that Iran would “never get a nuclear weapon on my watch.”
The director of U.S. National Intelligence said in a statement released Oct. 11 that, “We assess that the Supreme Leader has not made a decision to resume the nuclear weapons program that Iran suspended in 2003.”
In the aftermath of Trump’s precipitous decision to withdraw from the JCPOA, Iran took actions which underscored that it no longer felt constrained by any JCPOA limits.
Iran has expanded its nuclear program by installing advanced centrifuge cascades used to enrich uranium and scaled back International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitoring of its nuclear program. In short, Iran has positioned itself to produce a nuclear weapon on short order.
While the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) currently believes that the Supreme Leader has not made the political decision to do so, an assessment published in July contains a telling omission from past assessments of Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
The February 2024 ODNI assessment noted that, “Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device.”
However, this statement went missing from the July 2024 assessment, a clear indication that the U.S. intelligence community, due in large part to the reduction in IAEA inspection activity, lacks the insight into critical technical aspects of Iran’s nuclear-related industries.
Senator Lindsey Graham, after reading the classified version of the July 2024 ODNI report on Iran, said he was “very worried” that “Iran will in the coming weeks or months possess a nuclear weapon.”
What Confronts the US & Israel
This is the situation confronting Israel and the United States as they decide on an Israeli retaliation against Iran for the Oct. 1 missile attack.
Iran has indicated that any attack against its nuclear or oil and gas production capabilities would be viewed as existential in nature. That could trigger the reversal of the fatwa and the deployment of nuclear weapons within days of such a decision being made.
President Joe Biden told reporters on Friday that he knows when and where Israel will strike but refused to say. Leaked U.S. intelligence documents in recent days showed the limits of U.S. knowledge of exactly what Israel plans to do.
The United States and nuclear-power Israel have long said that a nuclear-armed Iran was a red line which could not be crossed without severe consequences, namely massive military intervention designed to destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
That line has been crossed — Iran is a de facto nuclear power, even if it hasn’t taken the final steps to complete the construction of a nuclear bomb.
The consequences of attacking Iran could prove fatal to the attackers and possibly the whole region.
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Biden says he knows when Israel will strike Iran but won’t share details. pic.twitter.com/BZcowjHJMj
— Iran Spectator (@IranSpec) October 20, 2024
Here are the docs. Looks like it’s just US observations while spying on Israeli drills. Biggest thing I think is the acknowledgment of Israel having nuclear weapons. https://t.co/c1AoQUYbvj pic.twitter.com/QHEedOEhV7
— Dave DeCamp (@DecampDave) October 20, 2024
Scott Ritter is a former U.S. Marine Corps intelligence officer who served in the former Soviet Union implementing arms control treaties, in the Persian Gulf during Operation Desert Storm and in Iraq overseeing the disarmament of WMD. His most recent book is Disarmament in the Time of Perestroika, published by Clarity Press.
The views expressed are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of Consortium News.
Danielle Pletka, senior fellow at the neoconservative American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and former congressional staffer for Sen. Jesse Helms (R-NC):
“The biggest problem for the United States is not Iran getting a nuclear weapon and testing it – it is Iran getting a nuclear weapon and NOT using it.
Because the second that they have one and they do not do anything bad, all of the naysayers are going to come back and say, ‘See, we told you Iran is a responsible power! We told you Iran was not getting nuclear weapons to use them immediately! We told you Iran was not seeking regional influence or regional hegemony through its acquisition of nuclear weapons!’
And they will eventually define Iran with nuclear weapons as not a problem.”
Source:
Eli Clifton, “Danielle Pletka: ‘The Biggest Problem’ For The U.S. Is Iran Not Using Nukes,” ThinkProgress (Center for American Progress), Dec. 3, 2011 – video available via Internet Archive’s Wayback Machine at tinyurl.com/PletkaIranNukes, and article cross-posted at Lobelog (lobelog.com/danielle-pletka-%E2%80%98the-biggest-problem%E2%80%99-for-the-u-s-is-iran-not-using-nukes)
All the comments here show how oblivious the west is to what’s going on in the world. Terror countries, unprovoked, shoot thousand of missiles accompanying a sickening assault on citizens. These countries lifeline is selling drugs around the world, they execute women for not being modest and are mostly hated by their own citizens. But the blame goes on US and Israel. You have never met the actual inhabitants of the planet you’re living on. Yet you think you know everything there is to know about them. Israel is not a sucker. They’re fed up with the west’s uncontrollable urge to buy quiet for the highest price. Even if it means the life of people down the road. This price has hit Israel, it’s already hitting Europe with the immigration, and it will eventually hit the US with China sitting patiently on the sidelines.
Israel chose to act. I wonder what the US and other western states would have done if being assaulted in such a way. I imagine the comments here wouldn’t be so lenient.
Ritter writes “Given the fact that the ballistic missile shield covering Israel was unable to intercept the Fatah-1 missile, if Iran were to build, deploy, and employ a nuclear-armed Fatah-1 missile against Israel, there is a near 100 percent certainty that it would hit its target.”
This ignores the THAAD anti-missile system the US has sent to Israel, which is “already in place” according to Lloyd Austin (Reuters, ‘US says THAAD anti-missile system is ‘in place’ in Israel’).
US anti-missile systems are all practically useless in actual warfare as shown in Ukraine, like all other NATO technology, and are very easily defeated. Iran also has hypersonic missiles that can’t be intercepted by any present technology.
Ultimately, nothing made by an American or vassal state is any good in a real war—they don’t fight them and everything of theirs including soldiers as well has zero real combat experience in an actual war. They are forces only good for occupying, bribing, and slaughtering poor countries like Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and Palestine.
Iran, on the other hand, is willing to fight an existential war of the kind the US has never even known on its own soil, and it has valuable intel and information on how to defeat NATO systems in a real war from the war in Ukraine, which is the only war of its kind since WWII.
I would therefore bet against THAAD and all other American systems. Its deployment is posturing by American politicians for the sake of those at home they are trying to appease; the goal is like in Ukraine never about the strategic and tactical reality on the ground, but about propaganda victories. That is the Empire’s Achilles heel (as geopolitical analyst Alastair Crooke put it).
Well said!
You could be right, but still, Ritter has ignored this system, which is designed to intercept things like the Fatah-1 missile.
This nuclear confrontation between two “lesser” powers was presaged by Nevil Shute in his novel, On the Beach (1957). It was assigned reading when I was a high school student in the early 60’s, and ought to be now. The maniacs who are leading us into the unthinkable are seemingly incapable, despite their lofty degrees, of recognizing how close we are to extinction.
Another pertinent book by Paul Erdman is titled “the crash of 79”. Perhaps a different calibre to Nevil Shute, but ominously close to today’s shenanigans.
Even better is an interview with historian, Avi Shlaim on The Thinking Muslim and his book; Three Worlds: Memoirs of an Arab-Jew.
As a high school teacher I suggested that teachers review the horror of nuclear war by showing “On The Beach,” Dr. Strangelove,” and especially “Fail Safe” with their students. The suggestion was rebuffed as not being relevant. As long as nuclear war is possible those three films should be compulsory.
Nuclear war not relevant! That explains a lot.
I show ‘Threads’.
Quite a few of those maniacs believe in “the Rapture”, in which good Christians (which they assume means themselves) will get wafted up to heaven while Mr Jesus eliminates the rest of us. Mike Pompeo is one, and Mike Pence regularly attends a church where this stuff is preached. These types like to think we are close to extinction, taking it as a sign their glorious day is nigh!
And not only through war. We seem hell bent on total destruction.
I’m sure it’s real, but from my reading it seems that it will be a matter of at least a few days or maybe even a week or two before 3 to 5 Iranian nuclear weapons are truly functional. If that indeed is the case I would imagine that the pressure on Netanyahu’s lunatic regime to launch a preemptive nuclear weapons attack on Iran would be so irresistible as to make it inevitable. But not to worry, because Biden says he already knows the where, when and how of Israel’s planned attack on Iran, and as we all know from his past performance he will establish a red line which Netanyahu will not cross and thus prevent Israel from attacking Iran with nuclear weapons. That of course is the way it should be. But alas, as we all know by now, when it comes to Israel and the U S it is the tail that wags the dog.
If only Russia had signed a partnership agreement years ago giving Iran the support it required, the Russian weapons also that could have been installed in Iran, what is happening right now, all the so-called red lines, would never have eventuated.
It seems fashionable these days to “have someone’s back” as we hear from the mouth of that demented arch criminal, Biden, in there with the genocidal Israel and supporting all their dirty deeds, boots and all, trying to create the climate for a controllable nuclear war far from mainland USA. He’ll do it too, before his time runs out.
Come on, China. A couple of nuclear submarines off the coast near New York. That should balance it up somewhat and finally make the American people, 33o million of them, realise what life is all about to have an albatross around your neck called Israel.
this could be read (by some) as a legitimization or justification for a devastating american-israeli attack on all important and vulnerable targets in iran. unlike mr ritter, i do not put it beyond certain, maybe all, segments of deciding forces to exactly let it progress in that way. i do not think that most of them mind that nuclear weapons are used (some are surely salivating at the prospect) as long as us-soil isn’t threatened. there’s ample indication that at least some ‘deciders’ do not care about iranian or israeli (or american) lives lost in the proces. (e.g. caitlin johnstone’s mentioning of the 50/50 chance of a russian nuclear escalation if the us escalated in the ukraine conflict and them going ahead with the escalation anyway).
Only thing standing in the way of Iran being obliterated is the “N” deterrent.
Israel has been supplied with 100’s of the buggers without so much as a word of censure.There is a whole list of other countries ‘N’ armed up to their back teeth ready to rock n roll into a planatary big bang party. I see even Kangaroo land has signed up to get Nuclear Submarines.Not a word from anyone.
If lran has learnt anything, is if you dont have the N-Bomb you will removed from the game. Saddam and Gaddafi are examples. Kim Jung Ung learnt from their examples and did not make the same mistake.
There is no good guys here.lts just humans being humans as the enivitable appointment with their destiny draws closer.
Satan respects no one. Its such a shame that with all the Internal Problems America has the INDUSTRIAL/MILITARY guys are pushing the entire world to un-imagined suffering. When will Man learn? May God Save Us
Look on the bright side, the only ‘success’ the idf has is with there aircraft. If some are shot down and the F35s don’t fly for any reason it might make them look a lot weaker.
Hello Scott: I have been following your articles since the Bush/Cheney traitors attacked you for exposing their treasonous PNAC plans. Israel was involved and pushed the U.S. into wars for their benefit. Trump tried to get Iran to respond to his actions against them but they did not take the bait. Now israel is doing all it can to drag the US into a war with Iran. Israel has been a curse on the U.S. for decades and now have very strong support from their US lover – Trump. It is disgusting listening to Trump brag about his treasonous love for israel. The world will never have a chance at peace until israel is removed, by any means necessary, along with the US traitors. Israel’s gluttony for power has put it in serious danger of being destroyed, ironically by the country they tried so hard to attack using the US military. Iran has played their cards well, with the help of Russia+ for sure. I think israel is finally heading for the garbage heap of history.
Emperor Joe “I am running the world” Biden has everything going according to the American/Zionist plans. Now the obvious argument is that Israel MUST first strike Iran before the Persians can retaliate.
Although State Media has emphasized Trump’s support for Israel, Biden has scuttled the Abraham Accords which Trump pushed for a modicum of peaceful co-existence between the Arabs and Jews in the MidEast. John Kerry, as a private citizen (presumably registered with FARA) advised Iran NOT to negotiate with the Trump administration long before Trump withdrew from Obama’s deal in May, 2018; tellingly, Biden has refused efforts to re-instate the Obama Plan (the only tangible results of which were US support for the Saudis’ Yemeni genocide). Looking at Genocide Joe “I am a Zionist!” Biden’s and Trump’s fealty to Israeli/ American donors (and even RFK Jr’s even more strident support for Israel), it is clear that all Americans are under Israeli control. As a recent Glenn Greenwald Palestinian interviewee noted, “We had none of these problems when Trump was President, and seriously, how much worse could it be?”
Much like the US Coup in Honduras in 2009 under Hillary, who said it was not a coup since by law that would eliminate military aid (Honduras was soon another US-sponsored narco state), Biden’s administration refuses to admit to funding and fully supporting the Genocide of the Palestinians, since it is against US law to support genocide.
We are all downwind.
The title does not serve Mr. Ritter well, because, as he acknowledges, Iran’s bomb is not actually here; it could be, in a matter of days or weeks.
Unfortunately, that’s a compelling reason for Israel/US to attack: they might be able to derail the process. They might also trigger an actual nuclear exchange, which would affect all of us, via the winds. Israel is a small place; Iran’s chances of hitting something vital are quite good. Maybe that’s why they haven’t counter-attacked yet. Last time, the retaliation was mostly symbolic; this time, we shall see, I assume Iran’s missiles are on a hair trigger, to be launched at any sign of an attack from Israel – or the US.
Fingers crossed.
What about the “earthquake “ in the desert south of Tehran. About 4 on the Richter scale.
My money is on a Nuclear test
Bibi is totally out of control, including any influence of the US. If the US turned off the money faucet to Israel, Bibi might listen, but he is committed to attacking Iran. A new nuclear power. While the other nutcase, Zelensky, demands NATO or nukes. It’s the West against the rest. May rationality eventually prevail.
The goddamn neocons are undoubtedly happy now – their dreams of perpetual war (INCLUDING nuclear war) are progressing ‘nicely’. Instead of the world trying to slowly evolve into something more peaceful/humanistic, we’re slowly regressing to 1913 Europe, or something similar, but with even MORE destructive weapons that everyone will use because ‘they had no choice’. Our lizard brains triumphant over our better angels…
As if possessed…the hole we are digging keeps getting deeper and deeper.
Insanity is running rampant!
Iran needs to take the overt statements and threats of Israel at their word. They will attack, just like a rabid animal with no logic or purpose other than blood.
Iran should preemptively launch on Israel and completely, utterly destroy this modern day parasite on humanity. It’s probably the only thing that will save the human race.
Indeed. Israel is a cancer on humanity.
Given the perilous stupidity of Joe Biden I wonder if any of us has a future.
Is there no end to injustice and arrogance? It seems not, especially for the usurper Zionist state and its allies, the United States and Europe. The West is undoubtedly aware of the impending legal consequences for Netanyahu and Trump, both of whom have acted recklessly and with impunity. Israel is currently under the leadership of a dangerous fanatic who will stop at nothing to protect himself. It is imperative that the world intervene to halt this madness.
The recent attack by Hamas on Israel resulted in the tragic loss of over 1200 lives. In response, Israel has inflicted devastating casualties on Gaza, with more than 42,000 fatalities. Lebanon has also suffered thousands of deaths, the vast majority of which are innocent civilians caught in the crossfire. This senseless violence must cease.
Yes, Trump acted recklessly in unilaterally abandoning the JCPOA, but beyond a few weasel words about resuming talks with Iran at the beginning of his term, according to Foreign Policy magazine, the long-ago failed talks have been “replaced with … nothing.”
so much madness of a few old men
ready for showdowns at any cost.
do they honestly think they’ll CON_
tain + survive their nuclear strikes?
what have we [not] done to deserve this?
Scott you still wrote?
Thank you for it!
Humanity is thinking about what you stated hereunder:
“Iran is a de facto nuclear power, even if it hasn’t taken the final steps to complete the construction of a nuclear bomb.” – Scott Ritter, October 2024
Julia Eden
And you sincerely believe that quibbling, in all this madness; promoting the misandry of old men is useful, and NOT merely unhelpful age discrimination?
Think about it: What have ‘you’ done individually, in your life so far NOT to deserve what is happening today?
Are the ‘we’ you speak of, guilt free?
Back to Hannah Arendt: When all people are guilty it means no one is guilty. She was specifically, of course, referring to Germany’s actions during WWII, but the same holds true today. There are specific people who are very guilty and should be held responsible for what is going on, but “civilization” seems designed for psychopaths to thrive. I have no fondness for people who uphold the status quo, usually through fear or passivity, but I do not hold them responsible for the criminality of our governments.
Whether this chain of events unfolds is entirely in the hands of a senile American Zionist: Joe Biden.
Word is is that Sullivan and Blinken are running the show.
You left out Jack Lew, the other US Zionist sitting at the table next to Blinken with Netanyahu in TelAviv ( see todays Times of Israel photo 10/22)
As Trita Parsi said earlier, the kicker–>> #5 as to why the docs were leaked: “A Western diplomat recently told me that the only way to stop the war is to have the players who forced Biden off the ticket in July repeat their feat by forcing Biden to stop Netanyahu.” How pathetic that US State Dept. Zionists: Blinken, Biden and Lew–>> WILL NEVER STOP NETANYAHU so that EU diplomats with FVEY access NEED TO FORCE A STOP ON BIDEN,BLINKEN, LEW>> ZIONIST KILLING MACHINE.
“All of this while Washington continues to nurture the mythology that its “leadership” is what holds the world together…”
Here’s full quote–>>” There are several theories regarding the leaked US intelligence reports depicting what the US intel has picked up about Israel’s pending plans to attack Iran. The last one is the kicker.” #5
5. Finally, since the US investigation is looking at outside actors, the question is if a close American ally – a Five Eyes state (FVEY) or a NATO ally with access to FVEY intelligence – has leaked it. If so, it would suggest that close US allies are so frustrated with Biden’s refusal to stop Netanyahu from starting the largest war in the Middle East since World War II that they are taking matters into their own hands to sabotage Netanyahu’s escalation plan. A Western diplomat recently told me that the only way to stop the war is to have the players who forced Biden off the ticket in July repeat their feat by forcing Biden to stop Netanyahu.