The Many Lessons of Ukraine War

Combatting Russia to the last Ukrainian was always an odious strategy, writes Chas W. Freeman in this expansive overview.  

Ukrainian soldiers May 2016 after the outbreak of civil war.  (Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0)

By Chas W. Freeman, Jr

Remarks by the author to the East Bay Citizens for Peace in Barrington, Rhode Island, on Sept. 26. 

Chas FreemanI want to speak to you tonight about Ukraine – what has happened to it and why, how it is likely to emerge from the ordeal to which great power rivalry has subjected it; and what we can learn from this.  I do so with some trepidation and a warning to this audience.  My talk, like the conflict in Ukraine, is a long and complicated one.  It contradicts propaganda that has been very convincing.  My talk will offend anyone committed to the official narrative.  The way the American media have dealt with the Ukraine war brings to mind a comment by Mark Twain: 

“The researches of many commentators have already thrown much darkness on this subject, and it is probable that, if they continue, we shall soon know nothing at all about it.”

It is said that, in war, truth is the first casualty.  War is typically accompanied by a fog of official lies.  No such fog has ever been as thick as in the Ukraine war.  While many hundreds of thousands of people have fought and died in Ukraine, the propaganda machines in Brussels, Kiev, London, Moscow and Washington have worked overtime to ensure that we take passionate sides, believe what we want to believe and condemn anyone who questions the narrative we have internalized.  

No one not on the front lines has any real idea of what has been happening in this war.  What we know is only what our governments and other supporters of the war want us to know.  And they have developed the bad habit of inhaling their own propaganda, which guarantees delusional policies.

Every government that is a party to the Ukraine War — Kiev, Moscow, Washington and other NATO capitals — has been guilty of various degrees of self-deception and blundering misfeasance.  The consequences for all have been dire.  For Ukraine, they have been catastrophic.  A radical rethinking of policy by all concerned is long overdue.

Whence & Whither NATO?

First, some necessary background.  The North Atlantic Treaty Organization came into being to defend the European countries within the post-World War II American sphere of influence against the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (U.S.S.R.) and its satellite nations. 

NATO’s area of responsibility was the territory of its members in North America and Western Europe, but nowhere beyond that.  The alliance helped maintain a balance of power and keep the peace in Europe during the four-plus decades of the Cold War. 

In 1991, however, the U.S.S.R. dissolved and the Cold War ended.  That eliminated any credible threat to NATO members’ territory and raised this issue: if NATO was still the answer to something, what was the question? The U.S. armed forces had no problem responding to that conundrum.  They had compelling vested interests in the preservation of NATO.

  • NATO had created and sustained a post-World War II European role and presence for the U.S. military,
  • This justified a much larger U.S. force structure and many more highly desirable billets for flag officers — generals and admirals — than would otherwise exist,
  • NATO enhanced the international stature of the American armed forces while fostering a unique U.S. competence in multinational alliance and coalition management, and
  • It offered tours of duty in Europe that made peacetime military service more attractive to U.S. soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines.

Then, too, the 20th century had appeared to underscore that U.S. security was inseparable from that of other north Atlantic countries.  The existence of European empires ensured that wars among the great powers of Europe — the Napoleonic wars, World War I and World War II — soon morphed into world wars.  NATO was how the United States dominated and managed the Euro-Atlantic region in the Cold War.  Disbanding NATO or a U.S. withdrawal from it would, arguably, just free Europeans to renew their quarreling and start yet another war that might not be confined to Europe.

So, NATO had to be kept in business.  The obvious way to accomplish that was to find a new, non-European role for the organization.  NATO, it came to be said, had to go “out of area or out of business.”  In other words, the alliance had to be repurposed to project military power beyond the territories of its Western European and North American member states.

“After 1991…NATO had to be kept in business.”

In 1998, NATO went to war with Serbia, bombing it in 1999 to detach Kosovo from it.  In 2001, in response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, it joined the U.S. in occupying and attempting to pacify Afghanistan. (Ukraine contributed troops to this NATO operation despite not being a member of the alliance.) In 2011, NATO fielded forces to engineer regime change in Libya.

The Coups & Rebellion of Russian-Speaking Ukrainians

In 2014 there was a well-prepared U.S.-sponsored anti-Russian coup in Kiev. (Reportedly, by 2014, various agencies of the U.S. government had committed a cumulative total of $5 billion or more to political subsidies and education in support of regime change in Ukraine.) After that, Ukrainian ultranationalists banned the official use of Russian and other minority languages in their country and, at the same time, affirmed Ukraine’s intention to become part of NATO.    

Among other consequences, Ukrainian membership in NATO would place Russia’s 250-year-old naval base in the Crimean city of Sebastopol under NATO and hence U.S. control.  Crimea was Russian-speaking and had several times voted not to be part of Ukraine.  So, citing the precedent of NATO’s violent intervention to separate Kosovo from Serbia, Russia organized a referendum in Crimea that endorsed its reincorporation in the Russian Federation.  The results were consistent with previous votes on the issue.

Russian Navy ships in Sevastopol, 2005. (Vyacheslav Argenberg, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0)

Meanwhile, in response to Ukraine’s banning of the use of Russian in government offices and education, predominantly Russian-speaking areas in the country’s Donbass region attempted to secede.  Kiev sent forces to suppress the rebellion.  Moscow responded by backing Ukrainian Russian speakers’ demands for the minority rights guaranteed to them by both the pre-coup Ukrainian Constitution and the principles of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).  NATO backed Kiev against Moscow.  An escalating civil war among Ukrainians ensued.  This soon evolved into an intensifying proxy war in Ukraine between the United States, NATO  and Russia.

Negotiations at Minsk, the capital city of Belarus, mediated by the OSCE with French and German support, brokered agreement between Kiev and Moscow on a package of measures, including:

  • a ceasefire,
  • the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the front line,
  • the release of prisoners of war,
  • constitutional reform in Ukraine granting self-government to certain areas of Donbas, and
  • the restoration of Kiev’s control of the rebel areas’ borders with Russia.

The United Nations Security Council endorsed these terms.  They represented Moscow’s acceptance that Russian-speaking provinces in Ukraine would remain part of a united but federalized Ukraine, provided they enjoyed Québec-style linguistic autonomy.  But, with U.S. support, Ukraine refused to carry out what it had agreed to.  Years later, the French and Germans admitted that their mediation efforts at Minsk had been a ruse directed at gaining time to arm Kiev against Moscow and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (like his predecessor in office, Petro Poroshenko) confessed that he had never planned to implement the accords.

[Related: SCOTT RITTER: Merkel Reveals West’s Duplicity and PATRICK LAWRENCE: Germany & the Lies of Empire]  

Moscow & NATO Enlargement 

In 1990, in the context of German reunification, the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and Russia’s abandonment of its politico-economic sphere of influence in Central and Eastern Europe, the West had several times somewhat slyly but solemnly promised not to fill the resulting strategic vacuum by expanding NATO into it.  

But as the 1990s proceeded, despite a lack of enthusiasm on the part of some other NATO members, the United States insisted on doing just that.  NATO enlargement steadily erased the Eastern European cordon sanitaire of independent neutral states that successive governments in Moscow had considered essential to Russian security.  As former members of the Warsaw Pact entered NATO, U.S. weaponry, troops and bases appeared on their territory.  In 2008, in a final move to extend the U.S. sphere of influence to Russia’s borders, Washington persuaded NATO to declare its intention to admit both Ukraine and Georgia as members.

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The eastward deployment of U.S. forces placed ballistic missile defense launchers in both Romania and Poland.  These were technically capable of rapid reconfiguration to mount short-range strikes on Moscow.  Their deployment fueled Russian fears of a decapitating U.S. surprise attack.  

If Ukraine entered NATO and the U.S. made comparable deployments there, Russia would have only about five minutes’ warning of a strike on Moscow.  NATO’s role in detaching Kosovo from Serbia and in U.S. regime-change and pacification operations in Afghanistan and Libya as well as its support of anti-Russian forces in Ukraine, had convinced Moscow that it could no longer dismiss NATO as a purely defensive alliance.

As early as 1994, successive Russian governments began to warn the U.S. and NATO that continued NATO expansion — especially to Ukraine and Georgia — would compel a forceful response.  Washington was aware of Russian determination to do this from multiple sources, including reports from its ambassadors in Moscow.  

In February 2007, Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking at the Munich Security Conference, declared: 

“I think it is obvious that NATO expansion … represents a serious provocation …  And we have the right to ask: against whom is this expansion intended? And what happened to the assurances our western partners made after the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact?”  

Putin at 2007 Munich Security Conference. (Wikimedia Commons)

On Feb. 1, 2008, Ambassador Bill Burns, now the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, warned in a telegram from Moscow that, on this subject Russians were united and serious.  Burns felt so strongly about the consequences of NATO expansion into Ukraine that he gave his cable the subject line, “Nyet Means Nyet” (“No means no.”)

In April 2008, NATO nonetheless invited both Ukraine and Georgia to join it.  Moscow protested that their 

“membership in the alliance is a huge strategic mistake which would have most serious consequences for pan-European security.”  

By August 2008, as if to underscore this point, when an emboldened Georgia sought to extend its rule to rebellious minority regions on the Russian border, Moscow went to war to consolidate their independence.

Civil & Proxy War in Ukraine

Less than a day after the U.S.-engineered coup that installed an anti-Russian regime in Kiev in 2014, Washington formally recognized the new regime.  

When Russia then annexed Crimea and civil war broke out with Ukraine’s Russian speakers, the United States sided with and armed the Ukrainian ultranationalists whose policies had alienated Crimea and provoked the Russian-speaking secessionists.  

The United States and NATO began a multi-billion-dollar effort to reorganize, retrain and re-equip Kiev’s armed forces.  The avowed purpose was to enable Kiev to reconquer the Donbass and eventually Crimea.  

Ukraine’s regular army was then decrepit.  Kiev’s initial attacks on Russian speakers in the Ukrainian eastern and southern regions were largely conducted by ultranationalist militias.  

Prior to the U.S. and NATO decision to aid Ukraine against its Russian-backed separatists, these militias were commonly identified as neo-Nazi in the Western media.  They professed to be followers of Stepan Bandera — who has now been adopted as a revered national figure by Kyiv. 

[Related: ROBERT PARRY: When Western Media Saw Ukraine’s Neo-Nazis]

Bandera was famous for his extreme Ukrainian nationalism, fascism, anti-Semitism, xenophobia and violence.  He and his followers were allegedly responsible for massacring 50,000 – 100,000 Poles and for collaborating with the Nazis in the murder of an even larger number of Jews.  After the U.S./NATO proxy war broke out, despite their continuing display of Nazi regalia and symbols on their uniforms and their ties to neo-Nazi groups in other countries, Western media ceased to characterize these militias as neo-Nazis.

[Related: On the Influence of Neo-Nazism in Ukraine and Ukraine Parliament Cheers Nazi Collaborator]

By 2015, Russian soldiers were fighting alongside the Donbass rebels.  An undeclared U.S./NATO proxy war with Russia had begun.

Rebel armored fighting vehicles convoy near Donetsk, Eastern Ukraine, May 30, 2015. (Mstyslav Chernov/Wikimedia Commons)

Over the course of the next eight years — during which the Ukrainian civil war continued — Kiev built a NATO-trained army of 700,000 — not counting one million reserves — and hardened it in battle with Russian-supported separatists.  Ukrainian regulars numbered only slightly less than Russia’s then 830,000 active-duty military personnel.  In eight years, Ukraine had acquired a larger force than any NATO member other than the United States or Türkiye, outnumbering the armed forces of Britain, France and Germany combined. Not surprisingly, Russia saw this as a threat.

Meanwhile, as tensions with Russia escalated, in early 2019 the United States unilaterally withdrew from the Intermediate Nuclear Force (INF) Treaty, which had barred ground-launched missiles with ranges of up to 3,420 miles from deployment in Europe.  Russia condemned this as a “destructive” act that would stoke security risks.  

Despite ongoing misgivings on the part of some other NATO members, at American insistence, NATO continued periodically to reiterate its offer to incorporate Ukraine as a member, doing so once more on Sept. 1, 2021.  By that time, after billions of dollars of U.S. training and arms transfers, Kiev judged it was finally ready to crush its Russian speakers’ rebellion and their Russian allies.  As 2021 ended, Ukraine stepped up pressure on the Donbass separatists and deployed forces to mount a major offensive against them timed for early 2022.

Moscow Demands Negotiations

At about the same time, in mid-December 2021, 28 years after Moscow’s first warning to Washington, Putin issued a formal demand for written security guarantees to reduce the apparent threats to Russia from NATO enlargement by restoring Ukrainian neutrality, banning the stationing of U.S. forces on Russia’s borders, and reinstating limits on the deployment of intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles in Europe.  

[Related: John Pilger: War in Europe & the Rise of Raw Propaganda]

The Russian Foreign Ministry then presented a draft treaty to Washington incorporating these terms — which echoed similar demands put forward by former Russian President Boris Yeltsin in 1997.  At the same time, apparently both to underscore Moscow’s seriousness and to counter Kiev’s planned offensive against the Donbas secessionists, Russia massed troops along its borders with Ukraine.

On Jan. 26, 2022, the U.S. formally responded that neither it nor NATO would agree to negotiate Ukrainian neutrality or other such issues with Russia.  A few days later, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov laid out his understanding of the American and NATO positions at a meeting of Russia’s Security Council as follows:

“[Our] Western colleagues are not prepared to take up our major proposals, primarily those on NATO’s eastward non-expansion. This demand was rejected with reference to the bloc’s so-called open-door policy and the freedom of each state to choose its own way of ensuring security. Neither the United States, nor [NATO] … proposed an alternative to this key provision.”

Lavrov at the U.N. Security Council in September 2021. (UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe)

Moscow wanted negotiations but, in their absence, was prepared to go to war to remove the threats to which it objected.  Washington knew this when it rejected talks with Moscow.  The American refusal to talk was an unambiguous decision to accept the risk of war rather than explore any compromise or accommodation with Russia.  

“The American refusal to talk was an unambiguous decision to accept the risk of war rather than explore any compromise or accommodation with Russia.”  

U.S. and allied intelligence services immediately began releasing information purporting to describe impending Russian military operations in what they described as an attempt to deter them. (The “special military operation’ mounted by Russia bore little resemblance to the specific predictions put forward in this information warfare, which appears to have been designed as much to rally support for Ukraine and boost its morale as to deter Russia.)

Russia Invades Ukraine 

In mid-February, fighting between Ukrainian army and secessionist forces in Donbass intensified, with OSCE observers reporting a rapid rise in ceasefire violations by both sides but with most allegedly initiated by Kiev.  

Perhaps disingenuously, the Donbass secessionists appealed to Moscow to protect them and ordered a general evacuation of civilians to safe havens in Russia.  On Feb. 21, Putin recognized the independence of the two Donbass “people’s republics” and ordered Russian forces to secure them against Ukrainian attacks.

On Feb. 24, in an address to the Russian nation, Putin declared that “Russia cannot feel safe, develop, and exist with a constant threat emanating from the territory of modern Ukraine” and announced that he had ordered what he called a “special military operation” “to protect people who have been subjected to bullying and genocide . . . for the last eight years” and to “strive for the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine.”  

He added that:

“It is a fact that over the past 30 years we have been patiently trying to come to an agreement with the leading NATO countries regarding the principles of equal and indivisible security in Europe. In response to our proposals, we invariably faced either cynical deception and lies or attempts at pressure and blackmail, while the North Atlantic alliance continued to expand despite our protests and concerns. Its military machine is moving and, as I said, is approaching our very border.”

The official narrative put forward in U.S. and NATO information warfare against Russia contradicts every element of this statement by President Putin, but the record affirms it.

Background to US-Russian Proxy War in Ukraine

In the post-Soviet era:

  • NATO — the U.S. sphere of influence and military presence in Europe — constantly expanded toward Russia’s borders despite escalating Russian warnings and protests.
  • By contrast, Moscow was in constant retreat. It had abandoned its sphere of influence in Eastern Europe.  It made no effort to reestablish it.
  • Moscow repeatedly warned that NATO enlargement and U.S. forward deployment of forces that might threaten it, especially from Ukraine, were a grave threat, to which it would feel compelled to react.
  • Given NATO’s transformation from a purely defensive, Europe-focused alliance into an instrument for power projection in support of U.S. regime-change and other military operations beyond its members’ borders, Moscow had a reasonable basis for concern that Ukrainian membership in NATO would pose an active threat to its security. This threat was underscored by U.S. withdrawal from the treaty that had prevented it from stationing intermediate-range nuclear weapons in Europe, including in Ukraine.
  • Moscow consistently demanded neutrality for Ukraine. Neutrality would make Ukraine both a buffer and bridge between itself and the rest of Europe, rather than part of Russia or a platform for Russian power projection against the rest of Europe.
  • By contrast, the United States sought to make Ukraine a member of NATO — part of its sphere of influence — and a platform for the deployment of U.S. military power against Russia.
  • Moscow agreed at Minsk to respect continued Ukrainian sovereignty in the Donbass region, provided the rights of Russian speakers there were guaranteed. But, with support from the U.S. and NATO, Ukraine declined to implement the Minsk agreement and redoubled its effort to subjugate the Donbass.

Feb. 12, 2015: Putin, French President Francois Hollande, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko at the Normandy format talks in Minsk, Belarus. (Kremlin)

  • When Washington refused to hear the Russian case for mutual accommodation in Europe and instead insisted on Ukrainian membership in NATO, the U.S. government knew that this would produce a Russian military response. In fact, Washington publicly predicted this.
  • Early in the resulting war, when third-party mediation achieved a draft peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, the West — represented by the British — insisted that Ukraine repudiate it.

This sad incident brings me to the war aims of the participants in the war.

War Aims in Ukraine

Kiev has not wavered from its objectives of:

  • Forging a purely Ukrainian national identity from which Russian and other languages, cultures and religious authorities are excluded.
  • Subjugating the Russian speakers who rebelled in response to this attempt at their forced assimilation.
  • Obtaining U.S. and NATO protection and integrating with the EU.
  • Reconquering the Russian-speaking territories Moscow has illegally annexed from Ukraine, including both the Donbass oblasts and Crimea.

Moscow clearly stated its maximum and minimum objectives in the draft treaty that it presented to Washington on Dec.17, 2021.  Core Russian interests have been and remain:

  • To deny Ukraine to the American sphere of influence that has engulfed the rest of Eastern Europe by compelling Ukraine to affirm neutrality between the United States / NATO and Russia, and
  • To protect and ensure the basic rights of Russian speakers in Ukraine.

Washington’s objectives — which NATO has dutifully adopted as its own ˆ have been much more open-ended and unspecific.  As National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan put it in June 2022,

“We have . . .  refrained from laying out what we see as an endgame. . .. We have been focused on what we can do today, tomorrow, next week to strengthen the Ukrainians’ hand to the maximum extent possible, first on the battlefield and then ultimately at the negotiating table.” 

Inasmuch as the first principle of warfare is to establish realistic objectives, a strategy to achieve them, and a plan for war termination, this is a perfect description of how to brew up a “forever war.”  As Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Libya, Syria and Yemen attest, this has become the established American way of war.  No clear objectives, no plan to achieve them, and no concept of how to end the war, on what terms, and with whom.

“Jake Sullivan’s description of U.S. objectives ….a perfect description of how to brew up a forever war.” 


The most cogent statement of U.S. objectives in this war was offered by President Joe Biden as it began.  He said his goal with Russia was to “sap its economic strength and weaken its military for years to come” — whatever it takes.  

At no point has the United States government or NATO declared that the protection of Ukraine or Ukrainians, as opposed to exploiting their bravery to take down Russia, is the central American objective.  

 Biden and Sullivan on Feb. 19 during the train ride from Przemsyl train station in Poland to Kiev. (White House/Adam Schultz)

In April 2022, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reiterated that U.S. aid to Ukraine was intended to weaken and isolate Russia and thereby deprive it of any credible capacity to make war in future.  

Quite a few American politicians and pundits have extolled the benefits to having Ukrainians rather than Americans sacrifice their lives for this purpose.  Some have gone further and advocated the breakup of the Russian Federation as a war aim.  

If you are Russian, you don’t have to be paranoid to see such threats as existential. Putin assesses U.S. war aims as directed at humbling the Russian Federation strategically and, if possible, overthrowing its government, and dismembering it.  The United States has not disputed this assessment.

Peace Set Aside

In mid-March 2022, the government of Turkey and Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett mediated between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators, who tentatively agreed on the outlines of a negotiated interim settlement.  The agreement provided that Russia would withdraw to its position on Feb.23, when it controlled part of the Donbass region and all of Crimea, and in exchange, Ukraine would promise not to seek NATO membership and instead receive security guarantees from a number of countries.  

A meeting between Putin and Ukrainian President Voldodymyr Zelensky was in the process of being arranged to finalize this agreement, which the negotiators had initialled ad referendum — meaning subject to the approval of their superiors.

On March 28, 2022. President Zelensky publicly affirmed that Ukraine was ready for neutrality combined with security guarantees as part of a peace agreement with Russia.  But on April 9 British Prime Minister Boris Johnson made a surprise visit to Kiev.  During this visit, he reportedly urged Zelensky not to meet Putin because (1) Putin was a war criminal and weaker than he seemed.  He should and could be crushed rather than accommodated; and (2) even if Ukraine was ready to end the war, NATO was not.

Johnson and Zelensky walking around the center of Kiev on April 9, 2022. (President of Ukraine)

Zelensky’s proposed meeting with Putin was then called off.  Putin declared that talks with Ukraine had come to a dead end.  

Zelensky explained that “Moscow would like to have one treaty that would resolve all the issues. However, not everyone sees themselves at the table with Russia. For them, security guarantees for Ukraine is one issue, and the agreement with the Russian Federation is another issue.”  This marked the end of bilateral Russian-Ukrainian negotiations and thus of any prospect of a resolution of the conflict anywhere but on the battlefield.

[Related: The Failed Ukrainian Peace Deal]

What Happened & Who’s Winning What

This war was born in and has been continued due to miscalculations by all sides.  NATO expansion was legal but predictably provocative.  Russia’s response was entirely predictable, if illegal, and has proven very costly to it.  Ukraine’s de facto military integration into NATO has resulted in its devastation.

The United States calculated that Russian threats to go to war over Ukrainian neutrality were bluffs that might be deterred by outlining and denigrating Russian plans and intentions as Washington understood them.  Russia assumed that the United States would prefer negotiations to war and would wish to avoid the redivision of Europe into hostile blocs.  Ukrainians counted on the West protecting their country.  When Russian performance in the first months of the war proved lackluster, the West concluded that Ukraine could defeat it.  None of these calculations have proved correct.

Nevertheless, official propaganda, amplified by subservient mainstream and social media, has convinced most in the West that rejecting negotiations on NATO expansion and encouraging Ukraine to fight Russia is somehow “pro-Ukrainian.”  Sympathy for the Ukrainian war effort is entirely understandable, but, as the Vietnam War should have taught us, democracies lose when cheerleading replaces objectivity in reporting and governments prefer their own propaganda to the truth of what is happening on the battleground.

“As the Vietnam War should have taught, democracies lose when cheerleading replaces objectivity.”

The only way you can judge the success or failure of policies is by reference to the objectives they were designed to achieve.  So, how are the participants in the Ukraine War doing in terms of achieving their objectives?


From 2014 to 2022, the civil war in the Donbass took nearly 15,000 lives.  How many have been killed in action since the U.S./NATO-Russian proxy war began in February 2022 is unknown but is certainly in the several hundreds of thousands.  

Casualty numbers have been concealed by unprecedentedly intense information warfare.  The only information in the West about the dead and wounded has been propaganda from Kiev claiming vast numbers of Russian dead while revealing nothing at all about Ukrainian casualties.  

It is known, however, that 10 percent of Ukrainians are now involved with the armed forces and 78 percent have relatives or friends who have been killed or wounded.  An estimated 50,000 Ukrainians are now amputees.  (By comparison, only 41,000 Britons had to have amputations in World War I, when the procedure was often the only one available to prevent death.  Fewer than 2,000 U.S. veterans of the Afghanistan and Iraq invasions had amputations.)  

Most observers believe that Ukrainian forces have taken much heavier losses than their Russian enemies and that hundreds of thousands of them have given their lives in their country’s defense and efforts to retake territory occupied by the Russians.

When the war began, Ukraine had a population of about 31 million.  The country has since lost at least one-third of its people.  Over 6 million have taken refuge in the West.  Two million more have left for Russia. Another 8 million Ukrainians have been driven from their homes but remain in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s infrastructure, industries and cities have been devastated and its economy destroyed.  As is usual in wars, corruption — long a prominent feature of Ukrainian politics — has been rampant.  Ukraine’s nascent democracy is no more, with all opposition parties, uncontrolled media outlets and dissent outlawed.

On the other hand, Russian aggression has united Ukrainians, including many who are Russian speaking, to an extent never seen before.  Moscow has thereby inadvertently reinforced the separate Ukrainian identity that both Russian mythology and Putin have sought to deny.  What Ukraine has lost in territory it has gained in patriotic cohesion based on passionate opposition to Moscow.

The flip side of this is that Ukraine’s Russian-speaking separatists have also had their Russian identity reinforced.  Ukrainian refugees in Russia are the hardest of hardliners demanding retribution from Kiev.  There is now little-to-no possibility of Russian speakers accepting a status in a united Ukraine, as would have been the case under the Minsk Accords.  

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And, with the failure of Ukraine’s “counteroffensive,” it is very unlikely that Donbass or Crimea will ever return to Ukrainian sovereignty.   As the war continues, Ukraine may well lose still more territory, including its access to the Black Sea.  What has been lost on the battlefield and in the hearts of the people cannot be regained at the negotiating table.  Ukraine will emerge from this war maimed, crippled and much reduced in both territory and population.

Finally, there is now no realistic prospect of Ukrainian membership in NATO.  As U.S. National Security Advisor Sullivan has said, “everyone needs to look squarely at the fact” that allowing Ukraine to join NATO at this point “means war with Russia.”  

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has stated that the prerequisite for Ukrainian membership in NATO is a peace treaty between it and Russia.  No such treaty is anywhere in sight.  In continuing to insist that Ukraine will become a NATO member once the war is concluded, the West has perversely incentivized Russia not to agree to end the war.  But, in the end, Ukraine will have to make its peace with Russia, almost certainly largely on Russian terms.

Whatever else the war may be achieving, it has not been good for Ukraine.  Ukraine’s bargaining position vis-à-vis Russia has been greatly weakened.  But then, Kiev’s fate has always been an afterthought in U.S. policy circles.  Washington has instead sought to exploit Ukrainian courage to thrash Russia, reinvigorate NATO and reinforce U.S. primacy in Europe.  


Has Mosow succeeded in expelling American influence from Ukraine, forced Kiev to declare neutrality or reinstating the rights of Russian speakers in Ukraine?  Clearly not.

For now, at least, Ukraine has become a complete dependency of the United States and its NATO allies.  Kiev is an embittered, long-term antagonist of Moscow.  Kiev clings to its ambition to join NATO.  Russians in Ukraine are the targets of the local version of cancel culture.  Whatever the outcome of the war, mutual animosity has erased the Russian myth of Russian-Ukrainian brotherhood based on a common origin in Kievan Rus.  

Russia has had to abandon three centuries of efforts to identify with Europe and instead pivot to China, India, the Islamic world and Africa.  Reconciliation with a seriously alienated European Union will not come easily, if at all.  Russia may not have lost on the battlefield or been weakened or strategically isolated, but it has incurred huge opportunity costs.

“Russia has had to abandon three centuries of efforts to identify with Europe and instead pivot to China, India, the Islamic world and Africa.” 

Then, too, NATO has expanded to include Finland and Sweden.  This does not change the military balance in Europe.  Western portrayal of Russia as inherently predatory notwithstanding, Moscow has had neither the desire nor the capability to attack either of these two formerly very Western-aligned and formidably armed but nominally “neutral” states.  Nor does either Finland or Sweden have any intention of joining an unprovoked attack on Russia.  But their decision to join NATO is politically wounding for Moscow.

Since the West shows no willingness to accommodate Russian security concerns, if Moscow is to achieve its goals, it now has no apparent alternative to battling on.  As it does so, it is stimulating European determination to meet previously ignored NATO targets for defense spending and to acquire self-reliant military capabilities directed at countering Russia independently of those of the United States.  Poland is reemerging as a powerful hostile force on Russia’s borders.  These trends are changing the European military balance to Moscow’s long-term disadvantage.

What about the United States?

In 2022 alone the United States approved $113 billion in aid to Ukraine.  The Russian defense budget was then less than half of that — $54 billion.  It has since roughly doubled.  Russian defense industries have been revitalized.  Some now produce more weaponry in a month than they previously did in a year.  Russia’s autarkic economy has weathered 18 months of all-out war against it from both the U.S. and the EU.  It just overtook Germany to become the fifth-wealthiest economy in the world and the largest in Europe in terms of purchasing power parity.  Despite repeated Western claims that Russia was running out of ammunition and losing the war of attrition in Ukraine, it has not, while the West has.  Ukrainian bravery, which has been hugely impressive, has been no match for Russian firepower.

Meanwhile, the alleged Russian threat to the West, once a powerful argument for NATO unity, has lost credibility.  Russia’s armed forces have proven unable to conquer Ukraine, still less the rest of Europe.  But the war has taught Russia how to counter and overcome much of the most advanced weaponry of the United States and other Western countries.

Before the United States and NATO rejected negotiations, Russia was prepared to accept a neutral and federalized Ukraine.  In the opening phase of its invasion of Ukraine, Russia reaffirmed this willingness in a draft peace treaty with Ukraine which the United States and NATO blocked Kiev from signing.  

Western diplomatic intransigence has failed to persuade Moscow to accommodate Ukrainian nationalism or accept Ukraine’s inclusion in NATO and the American sphere of influence in Europe.  The proxy war seems instead to have convinced Moscow that it must gut Ukraine, keep the Ukrainian territories it has illegally annexed and likely add more, thus ensuring that Ukraine is a dysfunctional state unable either to join NATO or to fulfill the ultranationalist, anti-Russian vision of its World War II neo-Nazi hero, Stepan Bandera.

The war has led to the superficial unity of NATO but there are obvious fissures among members.  The sanctions imposed on Russia have done heavy damage to European economies.  Without Russian energy supplies, some European industries are no longer internationally competitive.  As NATO’s recent summit at Vilnius showed, member countries differ on the desirability of admitting Ukraine.  NATO unity seems unlikely to outlast the war.  These realities help explain why most of America’s European partners want to end the war as soon as possible.

The Ukraine War has clearly put paid to the post-Soviet era in Europe, but it has not made Europe in any respect more secure.  It has not enhanced America’s international reputation or consolidated U.S. primacy.  The war has instead accelerated the emergence of a post-American multi-polar world order.  One feature of this is an anti-American axis between Russia and China.

“The war has accelerated the emergence of a post-American multi-polar world order.”

To weaken Russia, the United States has resorted to unprecedentedly intrusive unilateral sanctions, including secondary sanctions targeting normal arms-length commercial activity that does not involve a U.S. nexus and is legal in the jurisdictions of the transacting parties.  Washington has been actively blocking trade among countries that have nothing to do with Ukraine or the war there because they won’t jump on the U.S. bandwagon.  

As a result, much of the world is now engaged in pursuit of financial and supply-chain linkages that are independent of U.S. control.  This includes intensified international efforts to end dollar hegemony, which is the basis for U.S. global primacy.  Should these efforts succeed, the United States will no longer be able to run the trade-and-balance-of-payments deficits that sustain its current standard of living and status as the most powerful society on the planet.

Washington’s use of political and economic pressure to compel other countries to conform to its anti-Russian and anti-Chinese policies has clearly backfired.  It has encouraged even former U.S. client states to search for ways to avoid entanglement in future American conflicts and proxy wars they do not support, like that in Ukraine.  To this end, they are abandoning exclusive reliance on the United States and forging ties to multiple economic and politico-military partners.  Far from isolating Russia or China, America’s coercive diplomacy has helped both Moscow and Beijing to enhance relationships in Africa, Asia and Latin America that reduce U.S. influence in favor of their own.


In short, U.S. policy has resulted in great suffering in Ukraine and escalating defense budgets here and in Europe but has failed to weaken or isolate Russia.  More of the same will not accomplish either of these oft-stated American objectives.  Russia has been educated in how to combat U.S. weapons systems and has developed effective counters to them.  It has been militarily strengthened, not weakened.  It has been reoriented and freed from Western influence, not isolated.

If the purpose of war is to establish a better peace, this war is not doing that.  Ukraine is being eviscerated on the altar of Russophobia.  At this point, no one can confidently predict how much of Ukraine or how many Ukrainians will be left when the fighting stops or when and how to stop it.  Kiev just failed to meet more than a fraction  of its recruitment goals.  Combatting Russia to the last Ukrainian was always an odious strategy.  But when NATO is about to run out of Ukrainians, it is not just cynical; it is no longer a viable option.

Lessons to be Learned from the Ukraine War

What can we learn from this debacle?  It has provided many unwelcome reminders of the basic principles of statecraft.

  • Wars do not decide who is right. They determine who is left.
  • The best way to avoid war is to reduce or eliminate the apprehensions and grievances that cause it.
  • When you refuse to hear, let alone address an aggrieved party’s case for adjustments in your policies toward it, you risk a violent reaction from it.
  • No one should enter a war without realistic objectives, a strategy to achieve them, and a plan for war termination.
  • Self-righteousness and bravery are no substitutes for military mass, firepower, and stamina.
  • In the end, wars are won and lost on the battlefield, not with propaganda inspired by and directed at reinforcing wishful thinking.
  • What has been lost on the battlefield can seldom, if ever, be recovered at the negotiating table.
  • When wars cannot be won, it is usually better to seek terms by which to end them than to reinforce strategic failure.

It is time to prioritize saving as much as possible of Ukraine.  This war has become existential for it.  Ukraine needs diplomatic backing to craft a peace with Russia if its military sacrifices are not to have been in vain.  It is being destroyed.  It must be rebuilt. The key to preserving Ukraine is to empower and back Kiev to end the war on the best terms it can obtain, to facilitate the return of its refugees, and to use the EU accession process to advance liberal reforms and institute clean government in a neutral Ukraine.

Unfortunately, as things stand, both Moscow and Washington seem determined to persist in Ukraine’s ongoing destruction.  But whatever the outcome of the war, Kiev and Moscow will eventually have to find a basis for coexistence.  Washington needs to support Kiev in challenging Russia to recognize both the wisdom and the necessity of respect for Ukrainian neutrality and territorial integrity.

Finally, this war should provoke some sober rethinking in Washington, in Moscow, and by NATO of the consequences of diplomacy-free, militarized foreign policy.  Had the United States agreed to talk with Moscow, even if it had continued to reject much of what Moscow demanded, Russia would not have invaded Ukraine as it did.  Had the West not intervened to prevent Ukraine from ratifying the treaty others helped it agree with Russia at the outset of the war, Ukraine would now be intact and at peace.

This war did not need to take place.  Every party to it has lost far more than it has gained.  There’s a lot to be learned from what has happened in and to Ukraine.  We should study and learn these lessons and take them to heart.

Ambassador Chas W. Freeman chairs Projects International, Inc. He is a retired U.S. defense official, diplomat, and interpreter, the recipient of numerous high honors and awards, a popular public speaker, and the author of five books.

This article is from the author’s website and republished with permission. 

Views expressed in this article and may or may not reflect those of Consortium News.

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48 comments for “The Many Lessons of Ukraine War

  1. Cesar Jeopardy
    October 8, 2023 at 17:08

    A very good summary of events leading to the SMO in Ukraine. But it does not appear that anyone in U.S. has learned anything. The administration certainly doesn’t care about Ukraine or Ukrainians. The U.S. is desperate to hold onto it’s unipolar global hegemony, and will sacrifice Ukraine to do it. The main problem with that strategy is that it’s backfiring.

  2. CaseyG
    October 8, 2023 at 14:19

    Compared to Russia, and seeing how Biden operates, I would not trust the U.S. if I was Russian. I think Joe Biden has lost his mind, or what what was left of it. America has lost so much trust by so many, and that includes a huge block of US citizens.
    Earth, our only home, is undergoing great changes in climate which will impact all life on Earth. And as for US citizens, we truly do not seem to matter, as corporate America rules all. Russia is logical , but America is not.

    As the old poem says, ” This is the way the world ends, not with a bang–with a whimper.” Sadly, that appears to be our collective future. And to borrow another line—-most of all I miss that line of the Preamble : ” To PROMOTE THE GENERAL WELFARE.” America needs that most of all.

  3. Greg Grant
    October 8, 2023 at 11:35

    Amazingly good article, thank you! Took me a couple days to get through it, but it was worth it.
    The one thing I missed in your list of four things that were “compelling vested interests in the preservation of NATO” was any mention of how NATO helps to justify the $1 trillion military budget. (I refuse to call it “defense”)
    War is good for business. You recognized that it has helped the Russian economy, but there must be an incredible amount of money being spent by military industrial lobbyists here to keep this going.

  4. James White
    October 8, 2023 at 08:34

    Starting in the early 1990’s, it took NATO 30 years to build up and equip Ukraine’s armed forces into the largest in Europe. It has taken Russia less than two years to destroy what NATO built in 30. What was NATO’s purpose, other than threatening Russia with hordes of expendable Slavs? NATO’s callous sacrifice of Ukrainian lives is one of the greatest crimes against humanity in world history.

  5. Arch Stanton
    October 8, 2023 at 04:14

    Excellent article but often annoying as the author implies equivalence to both Russia & the US in terms of responsibility and prolonging the war, it is the US alone that desired this war, heck they spent $5bn formulating it so please stop blaming Russia, a county whose concerns have been deliberately ignored.

    • Tim N
      October 8, 2023 at 18:41

      Yes, that is one of my criticisms too. Freeman lays out the case, truthfully, devastatingly, that the US was and is responsible for the war, yet apparently felt compelled to include “Moscow” as one of the great centers of disinformation and propaganda in this war the Russians tried hard not to ultimately participate in. The US got the war it planned for, while Russia got the war it had hoped never to fight. All in all,though, this piece is very good, and should be printed on the front page of every newspaper and read aloud on all newscasts for a month straight.

  6. Mickykarim
    October 8, 2023 at 00:17

    The Ukraine war, rather Putin Russia breach of the sovereignty of another country is an ABSURDITY of both grave and immense proportion.

    It also connotes the need for quality leadership which is currently lacking on the globe.


  7. Cara
    October 7, 2023 at 19:43

    This is among the best summaries I have read of the historical context of this conflict, including where things stand at the moment. I am grateful to have all of this so clearly articulate in one essay. Thank you, CN, for publishing it!

    That said, there are two pieces missing in my read. First, there is the significant role U.S. neoconservatives played in provoking the war. Destabilizing Russia has long been at the top of the neocon agenda, including using Ukraine to accomplish that goal. And the Biden Administration is full of neocons. Second, what other option did Putin realistically have? He repeatedly attempted to use diplomacy right up until the war began. Indeed, as we now know, the West corrupted the diplomatic process with the Minsk Accords. The U.S. wanted this war, as Lloyd Austin admitted, in order to weaken and destabilize Russia. Some in the U.S. even want the Russian Federation broken up, as Mr. Freeman noted. Russia has a right to sovereignty and territorial integrity and to have its security interests respected. Ukraine made a fateful and fatal mistake when it abandoned neutrality. Call me a “Putin supporter” because I am.

    • Robert
      October 8, 2023 at 10:15

      Agree with you Cara. I say with some caution that I also find myself in the somewhat uncomfortable position of stating that I support Russia in this war. It comes down to the simple belief that Russia/Putin have a much better vision for the world than Biden, Blinken, Sullivan, Nuland, Boris Johnson, Stoltenberg, and VonderLeyen.

      I view the United States involvement in this war to be among the dumbest and most reckless decisions any US Presidential Administrations has made in my lifetime. The decision to do a proxy war against Russia involved gross miscalculations about the strength of the Russian government, military, and the Russian people. It also grossly miscalculated the response of non western world governments.

      One the very few correct calculations the Biden Administration made was that Ukraine might really fight until the last Ukrainian soldier is dead.

    • Eddie S
      October 8, 2023 at 10:40

      I’m in 100% agreement with you on the role of the U.S. neo-cons in their responsibility for the bellicose foreign policy of the U.S., including this tragedy In Ukraine. The world had a golden opportunity in 1991 to evolve towards a more peaceful world (no, it wouldn’t have been all unicorns and rainbows, but it could have notched-down the US military spending by 50% or more) but—thanks to the intercession of the neo-cons, that chance was lost. Now it’s not hard to envision an accidental nuclear war occurring…

    • Caliman
      October 8, 2023 at 13:00

      The genius of the system is the multiple layers of propaganda, one on top of the other, all aimed at busying the population from dealing with a rather simple truth: that our american system has always been about crony capitalist corporatism and that military and mineral corporations are always first in line at the trough.

      So you get the awesome theater of Neocons against neoliberal interventionists: one side arguing for “muscular foreign policy, democracy promotion, a mighty hegemon of liberalism” and such claptrap while the other side talks about “women and LGBT rights, racism, liberalism, rule of law, etc.”. Both sides agree that “mistakes were made” in the past; but it always seems like ore of the same types of things that were mistakes in the past are the only things that they continue to offer into the future and more trillions are spent on “defense” forever more.

      Just an example: if the Sec of Def, Mr. Austin from Raytheon, says something, you can be sure that it’s some obfuscatory message to deflect from the truth. As in, “oh yes, our aim is to weaken and destabilize Russia” … no, our aim was, is, and will always be to create was and chaos in the world, because that is good for business. These are the same people who were shocked in 1990 when the USSR fell apart; they thought that cold war racket would last forever and had to scramble fast to find substitutes until the next cold war was ginned up.

  8. robert e williamson jr
    October 7, 2023 at 18:29

    For years I have said that the people who run and work for the National Security and Intelligence Community are out of control. The result is they present a clear and present danger to the public they are swore to protect.

    Here we have the information to prove why the previous statement is true.

    This a very powerful masterful piece written by Mr. Freeman, a man who deals in facts and the reality those facts support.

    His effort is proof to me I have been right on the bullseye with what I have said about this travesty all along.

    ” This situation should have been handled much differently.”

    Our leadership is piss poor and the Ukrainian War is the proof. Far too many Old warriors no longer in the military have populated these agencies as advisors and yes men.

    What a friggin’ mess. We having fun yet?

    Thanks CN

    • Robert
      October 8, 2023 at 10:29

      Well stated Mr. Williamson. If I had an ideal Presidential candidate he/she would state unequivocally that from Day One of his/her Presidency the goal would be a 4 year plan to reduce by 10% each year the budgets of our Department of War, State Department, and CIA.

      When Eisenhower was in office most residents of what was then a small group of Deep Staters in D.C. regarded Ike as out of his depth as President of the United States. Turns out that Eisenhower saw the risk of the rise of our Military Industrial Complex with more clear and accurate vision better than anyone else living at the time.

      • robert e williamson jr
        October 8, 2023 at 15:35

        Thanks for the reply, Robert.

        Your second paragraph is a Doozy. The Deep Staters have and always will criticize anyone and anything the reveals their true intensions. Now we have a country full of individuals with paralyzed brains, those brains frozen with fear of the “State”.

        I’m hoping you read the article here by Chas. W. Freeman. His effort has been like a breath of fresh air to me.

  9. Lois Gagnon
    October 7, 2023 at 18:19

    This is a pretty good accounting of what led to the war in Ukraine, but I still think too many experts are not connecting the dots. In WWll, there were US and European corporations that continued to support the Nazi regime even after the U.S. entered the war.

    The US and the rest of the West are now living under total domination of corporate control. It should come as no surprise that these same corporate dominated countries (all members of NATO) are supporting Nazis in Ukraine AND giving standing ovations to WWll Nazis. There is no mystery here. I think the Russians have been forced to reckon with the rise of Western fascism yet again. They have no more illusions of what the endgame is. It’s about time we in the West part with our own illusions of what and who we are dealing with as well.

    The powers that be are working overtime to disguise their intent. Too many are falling for the propaganda. The Russians are holding the line on this insidious ideology. We best figure out who the bad guys are.

  10. Kerry Johnson
    October 7, 2023 at 14:16

    I would give this article a “B-”. It gathered a lot of background information into one place, while pointing out some of the deceptiveness of the U.S. government and NATO, and is clearly written.

    I would like to dissect the article, in its entirety, but will only make a few comments (not entirely coherent with each other, in sequence)

    Freeman seeks to build up his credibility as a ‘neutral commentator’, but does not ultimately succeed — his background as a “diplomat” and “defense official” still hang around him like a bad odor — he cannot shake his ultimate fealty to “western” governments and capitalist ideologies.

    Historically, Freeman assumes that the U.S.S.R., in its entirety, posed a threat to Europe, the U.S., and the rest of the “free (“capitalist” — immoral and parasitic) world” (and likely that any and all nations that experimented with “communism” or “socialism”); and he assumes that his readers do as well. (As an aside, the U.S. government continues to consider “Russia” — NO LONGER THE U.S.S.R. — an “enemy government”, with no discernible reason … that I’ve heard of. Anyone in any authority in Russia, who was paying attention, could see that it was being treated as an “enemy nation”, even though it did not seek out such a status — at one point it even sought to join NATO!)

    He made a few good points about the rationalizing arguments for the preservation of NATO, but then added: “Disbanding NATO or a U.S. withdrawal from it would, arguably, just free Europeans to renew their quarreling and start yet another war that might not be confined to Europe.” ??

    Most of the essay is another rehash of information and history that is well-known to most folks who are fair-minded and paying attention

    Freeman calls into question the appeal that “Donbas’s secessionists” made to Moscow for aid as “perhaps disingenuous”, for no reason that I can understand (but perhaps thrown in to build a tad credibility as a ‘neutral commentator’)

    The so-called “legality” of NATO expansion is a deceptive phrasing — it is the underlying geopolitical motivations that are the real point of discussion here — WHY DOES NATO WANT TO EXPAND?

    As well, the “illegality” of Russia invading Ukraine is a distraction thrown up by the U.S. and lackey-states. When does the U.S. ever care about international legalisms? The only explicit concern put forth by the U.S. government are “the rules”, that it alone creates and enforces (much like any mafia operation).

    (I have to question whether or not Freeman is consistent in all his writings and thoughts, about such questions of “international legality”, or are these comments only thrown in to bulk up his essay?)

    Good line: “At no point has the United States government or NATO declared that the protection of Ukraine or Ukrainians, as opposed to exploiting their bravery to take down Russia, is the central American objective.”

    (The “neos” in Washington, whether of so-called “liberal” or “conservative” variety, are crazy sociopaths, who have little interest in what are the best solutions for humanity — only themselves and their respective world-views/ideologies.)

    “In continuing to insist that Ukraine will become a NATO member once the war is concluded, the West has perversely incentivized Russia not to agree to end the war.” (I read this as NOT “perverse”, or contrary to U.S. objectives, but totally in line with U.S. objectives — to “weaken Russia”. The “West” is merely being deceptive, rather than “perverse”)

    Good line: “Washington has instead sought to exploit Ukrainian courage to thrash Russia, reinvigorate NATO and reinforce U.S. primacy in Europe.” (Why, then, does Freeman work so hard to avoid condemning “the West”, for its treacherous behavior towards the interests of all humans on this planet?)

    “Russia may not have lost on the battlefield or been weakened or strategically isolated, but it has incurred huge opportunity costs.” (What alternative did Russia really have, given the explicit motivations and goals of those in charge of the U.S. government?)

    Freeman thinks that this “war” was a series of ‘blunders’ (sort of his underlying thesis, maybe similar to the rationalizations given for the U.S. invasion of Iraq, etc., instead of deliberate acts of domination), but it was U.S. ideologically driven, from beginning to whatever happens in the coming years. He refuses to recognize his own arguments, that in effect ‘justifies’ the behavior of the Russian government

    Freeman seems to think that the U.S. is a “democracy”, instead of the objectively observable oligarchy that it really is

    Many of the governments of Western Europe were colonialist, and are now Neo-colonialist, as well as the U.S. government. These are intentionally parasitic arrangements, causing pain to most of the people of the world, in order to benefit the tiny minority in the dominating nations. Europe/NATO and the U.S. are NOT the “good folk” in the world (and NEVER have been), that the mainstream media and educational systems portray.

    Nuclear war is still quite a sword hanging over all of us, placed over our heads largely by the U.S. government, by its sociopathic seeking of world dominance

  11. Cynic
    October 7, 2023 at 11:26

    This is as objective and neutral as an American point of view can get, which is quite surprising. “Almost neutral but still on the side of the Americans” I thought, until I get to read that it is written by a retired American ambassador. Much less odious than the usual American articles, quite nice to read.

    • Michael Walk
      October 8, 2023 at 05:37

      This has been exactly the course of my thinking when reading this piece. Remarkably honest, for example in mentioning the prior referendums in Crimea 1991, 1992 and 1994, showing a majority of Crimeans wanted to be independent from Ukraine. Still US biased in calling NATO expansion legal and calling Russia’s recognition of independent Donbass republics illegal. Whatever this even means.

  12. Em
    October 7, 2023 at 11:23

    A synoptic View of Complex Matters

    The communal concepts of the fairer exchange of the ‘GOODS’ of the Planet have always been the stimulus for unbridled American capitalism’s paranoia!

    In all the analyses concerning the formation of the NATO bloc, has anyone given a thought to why the USSR/Russia was arbitrarily and undemocratically designated the enemy, and excluded from NATO membership?.

    After-all, the defeat of Nazi Germany would not have been accomplished without the participation and sacrifice of the Soviet Union spilling more blood than all of the European ‘allies’ combined.

    The false notion of a unified international anti-’communism’ has always been the lifeblood of the antipathetic, plutocratic, American capitalist model of economic exchange.

    Fact: At the time of NATO coming into force, there was no such defensive alliance known as The Warsaw Pact countries.

    What’s the difference, objectively speaking, between the descriptions, “American sphere of influence” and “the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (U.S.S.R.) and its satellite nations”?
    Ambassador Freeman’s subjective unconscious biases!

    In the American ideological construct, ‘sphere of influence’ and ‘satellite nations’ are not equally valid concepts, interchangeable, yet both descriptions are constructs of the fallible human mind.

    However, the American interpretation of international diplomacy standards are NOT: “what’s good for the goose (MUST also be) good for the gander.”

    The only difference, therefore, is in the notion of the one ‘exceptional’ nation not permitting any challenges to its concept of how things ought to be.

    The former, esteemed Ambassador, refers to “The alliance helped maintain a balance of power and keep the peace in Europe during the four-plus decades of the Cold War”, taking for granted that “we” all know to which side he is referring.

    Talk about unconscious, one-sided analysis, unintentional as it may indeed be.
    Nevertheless, his genuine, delicate exposure, and especially his mastery of the highly complex details is appreciated!

  13. jamie
    October 7, 2023 at 03:28

    Once was about religion, then about race, now about political ideology, always about cultural superiority, always about access to resources, about holding higher grounds, always about fear, emptiness, being lost despite being rich and powerful, hence the rage that follows, always about limited understanding of the human dynamics and potential, always stuck in Hulk’s skin to solve human problems with Bruce Banner long gone, we always been like this.
    Russia tried a different approach, tried to negotiate, to come to senses, but they knew no one can’t reason with us when it is about limiting our power; so Russia did what we have done for centuries; use military force and secure those areas that are strategically important for the survival of the country, securing the Azov sea, Crimea, the “door” to the black sea, the transit route for military and commercial purposes, securing a buffer zone of more than 100km around the Azov sea, that’s what Russia wanted all along by faking the desire to conquer the capital; of course if the Zelensky’s regime had fallen even better, but the main goal had been achieved, in my opinion. A military success for Russia
    And, thinking that the whole “defensive” NATO had participated in helping Ukraine to win the war, that is a crushing defeat; perhaps the “the biggest one” and sure not the last, the signs, for a culture that has used military superiority to achieve wealth, the end of western economic domination and international influence.

  14. Commander McBragg
    October 7, 2023 at 02:45

    Russia was thought to be the weaker partner of a China-Russia coalition. How wrong this proved.

  15. Theophilus
    October 7, 2023 at 02:02

    I suppose Ambassador Freeman feels obliged to tilt his analysis in favor of the ‘noble brave unified Ukrainians’ and the great losses of Russia.
    What he has left out is that Ukraine voted 70% in favor of negotiations with the Donbass and Russia at the last presidential elections. It was on this basis that Zelensky (and Poroshenko before him) was elected. This policy was always impossible because the people who control Ukraine – the extreme nationalist nazi sympathisers and their CIA backers would not allow it. Zelensky was specifically informed by the Azov mob that they would kill him if he tried it and they did kill one of the peace negotiators who was considered too pro Russian without a murmur of protest from the West.
    So the poor Ukrainian recruits find themselves fighting for something they voted against. How come? Because Ukraine is a Stalinist state and uses enforcement troops to make sure soldiers do not desert or runaway. If they try they shoot them in the back. The also compulorilty drug them. Despite this thousands are deserting and millions have fled the country to avoid the war.
    Charles Freeman is right to point out that there is some allegance to Ukraine and that the war has reinforced this. But this is only because of a totalitarian blizzard of misinformation about Russia and Russians who are portrayed as monsters and incompetent idiots. One of the reasons for Russia going for a long war may well be to unravel this nonsense and other Western lies.
    The final omission in this article is the dramatic change that occured in 2018 with the introduction of powerful new Russian nuclear weapons against which America and Europe have no defence. (See the articles and books of Andrei Martyanov ‘Losing military dominance’. It may be this is the real reason why Russia waited to intervene until they had achieved this military rreassurance and could no longer be eaaily blackmailed with nuclear annihilation.

  16. alley cat
    October 7, 2023 at 01:54

    Overall, a fine analysis, with the following exceptions:

    “Russia’s response was entirely predictable, if illegal, and has proven very costly to it.”

    Condemning Russia’s intervention as illegal is too facile. Americans commit war crimes whenever it suits them. Prime examples are Afghanistan and Iraq. The U.S. played a key role in overthrowing Ukraine’s elected government to replace it with anti-Russian stooges. How legal was that? The U.S. has no qualms about turning Ukraine into a nuclear-armed military fortress in order to undermine Russia’s nuclear deterrence. Undermining Russia’s nuclear deterrence would necessarily mean the destruction of Russia. Does any sane person honestly think Russians will allow it to happen, because to prevent it would be “illegal”?

    “Since the West shows no willingness to accommodate Russian security concerns, if Moscow is to achieve its goals, it now has no apparent alternative to battling on.”


    “Unfortunately, as things stand, both Moscow and Washington seem determined to persist in Ukraine’s ongoing destruction.”

    If Russia has no alternative to battling on, then it’s not to blame for battling on. It’s senseless to blame Russia for our government’s intransigence.

    “Washington needs to support Kiev in challenging Russia to recognize both the wisdom and the necessity of respect for Ukrainian neutrality and territorial integrity.”

    Again, Ambassador, too facile. That ship left port eighteen months and five-hundred thousand lives ago.

  17. Joseph Tracy
    October 7, 2023 at 00:57

    The author’s statement that Russia has not been able to conquer Ukraine is misleading. That has never been a stated goal, whereas the defense of Russian speaking areas, a neutrality agreement and denazification of the army are. Strategically there are several reasons why trying to conquer the whole of Ukraine would be a bad idea for Russia: 1)ruling an entire region where you are hated is a giant headache, 2) a full scale attack would invite a broader European war, 3) the defensive lines Russia has established have allowed them to devastate the Ukrainian army with far fewer losses than pursuing more territory, 3) They have shown conclusively that Ukraine will never recover the Donbass or Crimea and have put Ukraine in a weak position for a settlement, 4) they have held to their original goals and shown their strategic partners that they are reliable 5) if they do decide to take a significantly Russian area like Odessa, Ukraine’s severe losses will make it hard to stop them, 6) despite massive propaganda, 55% and growing US voters want spending on Ukraine war to end, and a growing group of republicans oppose the war; this direction is likely to increase if recent wars are an indicator.
    Generally a good detailed review of the history and reality from an authoritative figure, with only a few questionable assessments, the one cited in the paragraph above being the most difficult to defend.

  18. Jeff Harrison
    October 6, 2023 at 22:00

    They won’t be learnt. The incredible arrogance and hubris of “The Beltway” has no plan to leave anytime soon. We need a little humility before any of this changes.

    • Annette
      October 7, 2023 at 12:49

      Straussians are completely devoid of humility, shame, and respect for others.

      Fun fact from World Jewish Congress website: “In 2023, Ukraine is home to 45,000 Jews, making it the fourth-largest Jewish community in Europe and the 11th-largest in the world. Ukrainian Jews are prevalent throughout Ukrainian society, including high offices of the state.”
      Is this why ethnic Ukrainians are sent by “high offices of the state” to die, by tens of thousands every month, on the frontline in a war against Russia?

      Meanwhile, BlackRock (Larry Fink) is disappointed that too much arable land in Ukraine is used for cemeteries. The western Money Mafia and corporations have acquired 1/3 of Ukrainian land.

  19. Wayne
    October 6, 2023 at 19:51

    Freeman’s history of the conflict and his capacity to identify with the Russian perspective show him why he was a great diplomat. But I think he still harbors delusions about the war and its consequences still common to Americans of his pedigree. Russia has all along been fighting the war its own deliberate way in the full awareness that it is fighting the US, not just Ukraine, and that it could all too easily transform into a direct war with the US. Russia is taking its time, gaining in military strength and deploying weaponry as good and in many cases superior to anything the US/NATO can field so that when Ukraine yields it will be ready, if need be, to take on the US/NATO. At the same, it is successfully reorienting its economy to the East and has China at its back to keep it strong for the long term. Meanwhile, Europe is on a steep path downward economically, will be faced by a military superpower on its borders, and has become dangerously dependent on an unreliable ally far across the ocean that is determined to profit from Europe’s weakness in every way it can. As I see it, Russia has only to wait for the day, probably not too far off, when saner people will come to power in enough European countries to cry uncle and meet Russia’s (generous) term for security and sanctions-free relations, which will probably be the end of most unified European agreements and institutions. And it will happen even quicker if the US demands that Europeans give up on their Chinese economic ambitions when the US decides its time to crack down hard on China.
    I also think Freeman vastly overestimates the enduring hostility of the vast majority in Ukraine towards Russia. In the aftermath of a convincing defeat, the Maidan regime will get most of the blame for the misery their ambition and misrule produced, and the control of media and education in the hands of anti-Maidan forces will smooth the way for most Ukrainians for reconciliation to the new order. People will want peace and at least the hope of future prosperity, and if Russia offers them that, they will probably abide and adapt. After all, the two peoples (if they aren’t actually one) have a common history religion and language, and will easily fall back into old ways of cohabitation if given time and a fair shake. Freeman may not realize that, but Putin surely does.

  20. Raymond J Comeau
    October 6, 2023 at 18:51

    I agree with much of this article. However I believe that more respect should be given to Russia because the United States was guilty of provoking Russia into attacking Ukraine

    • October 6, 2023 at 20:47

      You are RIGHT!

    • gwb
      October 6, 2023 at 20:58

      Russia has actually been quite restrained all along. It’s never been explained, who the snipers were who fired on the crowd in Maidan in February 2014, that resulted in Yanukovich’s ouster – or who really shot down MH17 – that disaster was swept under the rug – the official story has more holes in it than Swiss cheese. And blowing up the Nordstream pipelines was perfectly legal, of course – Olaf Scholz didn’t utter a peep in protest. And don’t forget the Time magazine story in January 2021 about the Azov battalion’s Facebook recruiting of neo-Nazis. It wasn’t as if we didn’t know about this.

      • David Otness
        October 7, 2023 at 23:35

        The Maidan Square Sniper / Shooters (includes ballistics-trajectories)


    • rosemerry
      October 7, 2023 at 02:08

      Yes. all of the steps recounted here were against Russia when really after “the end of the Cold War” there was no attempt by the USA to accept this as the time to have peace now that the “wicked commies” were gone. Instead, enmity with Russia was assumed and the 1990s destruction of Russia was a big step to future conflict.

  21. Sam F
    October 6, 2023 at 17:52

    An excellent essay by Chas Freeman. Those are indeed the many lessons, unlearned in the echo chambers of mass media, which I hope receive much broader attention in the aftermath.

    With the plan of preventing such wars, I am founding the Congress Of Debate ( to conduct moderated online debates protecting all viewpoints on policy issues, and make summaries available via internet, as well as dramatized versions. Critical comments there are very much appreciated. I hope to have the internet operations going in a year or so.

    Thanks to Consortium News for this essay!

  22. gwb
    October 6, 2023 at 17:28

    Well, the “sober rethinking in Washington … of the consequences of diplomacy-free, militarized foreign policy” won’t come from anyone in the diplomacy-free State Department, whose current principals were partly responsible for egging the Ukrainians on in this dangerous game of chicken with Russia.

  23. Adele Abrahamse Roof
    October 6, 2023 at 16:56

    This piece by Ambassador Freeman is brilliant, well-informed and highly readable. I so appreciate that an 80 year-old retired diplomat would take his precious time to try to inform US citizens of the costs of US involvement in this war. Unfortunately, those who most need to read this balanced and unbiased history probably won’t. For me, this issue is of the highest priority. I don’t see myself voting for anyone who wants to continue this horrible conflict that is destroying Ukraine and quite possibly leading the US into nuclear conflict with Russia.

  24. Joe Wallace
    October 6, 2023 at 16:34

    This is a splendid commentary. Thank you, Chas W. Freeman, for your objective, sober, thoughtful, measured analysis.

  25. Valerie
    October 6, 2023 at 15:53

    From the article:

    “NATO’s area of responsibility was the territory of its members in North America and Western Europe, but nowhere beyond that.”

    BOGOTA (Reuters) – Colombia will next week formally join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, making it the only Latin American nation in the alliance, President Juan Manuel Santos said late on Friday.
    May 26th 2018

    Strange. I never knew Colombia was in North America or Western Europe. I always imagined it to be “beyond” that.

    • kashmir
      October 6, 2023 at 20:13

      Exactly! Well said Valerie

      • Valerie
        October 7, 2023 at 04:11

        I was dumbfounded when i read about this in 2018. It really disturbed me. And now we see their capabilities to undermine countries and citizens.

        • Em
          October 7, 2023 at 10:28

          For what it’s worth to you individually!

          Apologies for attempting to clarify the current factual details.
          There are crucial differences between actual NATO membership and partnership.

          Since you read the Reuters article, of May 2018, Article 10 is still in force.
          It does not permit “full membership” – obligations and ‘benefits’ in NATO to countries outside of Europe.

          • Valerie
            October 8, 2023 at 02:34

            Well noted. Thankyou Em. But it would appear NATO is still outside their borders in regard to this:

            “NATO’s area of responsibility was the territory of its members in North America and Western Europe, but nowhere beyond that.”

            (Even with just a partnership)

            • Em
              October 8, 2023 at 09:50

              Absolutely agree!

    • Jeff Harrison
      October 6, 2023 at 21:54

      Well, see? That’ll teach ya.

      • Valerie
        October 7, 2023 at 04:08

        LOL. Never underestimate TPTB. They can move whole nations with the stroke of a pen.

    • LarcoMarco
      October 9, 2023 at 00:55

      Gustavo Preto was recently elected as Colombia’s first “leftist” president. It remains to be seen whether he will challenge the presence of US military bases.

  26. All we are saying
    October 6, 2023 at 15:39

    Other authors theorize that the United States have indeed realized their goals. Russia and the European Union are weakened and the economical ties between them are shattered ( SWIFT, Nordstream.., sanctions). But the control the United States has over Western Europe is enforced. Economically the United States benefits by selling its expensive fracking gas to Western Europe.
    The United States won´t reach world dominance in this process. But they are clearly dominating Western Europe.

    • Kazimir
      October 6, 2023 at 20:20

      Exactly as they did in World War II supporting and financing HItler et al to weaken Europe… now they support and finance Nazi Ukrainians for the same goal you described…

      And here is the problem: Why a nation of war criminals as USA should dominate the world? To achive what, sorry? Maybe it’s time to get rid of United Criminals of America once for all!

    • rosemerry
      October 7, 2023 at 02:12

      Europe has helped this process by its weak capitulation to the primacy of the USA even while the USA is losing world influence. All of the EU States plus the UK are faltering economically, as they deserve by their stupid acceptance of the Western media lies and weak incompetent behaviour of their leaders.

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