The EU Will Not Stand by Iran

While European leaders have made noises that they will defy Donald Trump’s reneging on the Iran nuclear deal and resist U.S. sanctions, in the end the Europeans will give in to U.S., argues Alexander Mercouris in this commentary.

By Alexander Mercouris

Ever since Donald Trump’s announcement that the U.S. would pull out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (“JCPOA”) with Iran and would unilaterally impose across-the-board sanctions on that country, a procession of European leaders including the leaders of the U.S.’s most powerful European allies – Britain, France and Germany – have publicly declared their intention to stand by the JCPOA.

There is also brave talk of the EU creating safeguards for European companies which in defiance of the U.S. continue to trade or do business with Iran.

President Rouhani of Iran – who has a big personal stake in the JCPOA, which he personally negotiated – has for his part said that Iran will for the time being abide by the terms of the JCPOA whilst it waits to see how Europe will react.

In the meantime the talk of the EU standing up to the U.S. over the JCPOA has increased talk – or hope – that a corner in U.S.-EU relations has been turned, and that the EU will henceforth increasingly defy the U.S., making Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of the JCPOA a further step in the decline of U.S. power.  These words of Craig Murray’s may stand as a good example:

We are yet to see the detail, but by all precedent Trump’s Iran sanctions will also sanction third country companies which trade with Iran, at the least through attacking their transactions through U.S. financial institutions and by sanctioning their U.S. affiliates.

But at a time when U.S. share of the world economy and world trade is steadily shrinking, this encouragement to European and Asian companies to firewall and minimise contact with the U.S. is most unlikely to be long term beneficial to the U.S. In particular, in a period where it is already obvious that the years of the U.S. dollar’s undisputed dominance as the world currency of reference are drawing to a close, the incentive to employ non-U.S. linked means of financial transaction will add to an already highly significant global trend.

In short, if the U.S. fails to prevent Europe and Asia’s burgeoning trade with Iran – and I think they will fail – this moment will be seen by historians as a key marker in U.S. decline as a world power.”

I do not share these expectations or these hopes.

Whilst there is no doubt European leaders are deeply shocked by Trump’s announcement of a pullout from an international agreement in negotiating which the EU played a large part, I strongly doubt that they will find the courage or the willpower to defy the U.S. by in effect encouraging their companies to continue to do business with Iran.

Market Size Matters

Airbus: Unlikely to risk U.S. fines. (Airbus)

It should be said that even with such active encouragement it is unlikely in my opinion that big European companies like Daimler or Airbus will risk U.S. fines by continuing to do business with Iran.  Even if European governments were to guarantee them against any losses caused by such fines, they would worry about losing access to the U.S. market, which utterly dwarfs Iran’s.

Given the head of steam that has built up inside the Trump administration against Iran, only if the EU were to threaten publicly to impose reciprocal sanctions on U.S. businesses doing business in the European Single Market might there be a real possibility of the US being deterred from imposing penalties on European companies which continue to do business with Iran.

Frankly I think there is no prospect of that happening because there is no unanimity within the EU behind it (Poland and the Baltic States would certainly oppose it) whilst I am sure that even the big EU states – Britain, Germany, France, and Italy – would in the end be unwilling to risk an all out rupture with the U.S. on such an issue.

Quite simply, though the Europeans are anxious to trade with Iran and to do business with Iran, Iran is not big enough, and trade with Iran is not important enough, to make the risk of an all-out rupture with the U.S. worthwhile.

I am sure that the Europeans – angry though they certainly are – will therefore in the end knuckle down, and do as the U.S. tells them to do.

That almost certainly means that the JCPOA is doomed.  The Iranians have made clear that they will not stick with it if there are no economic benefits to them from doing so.  I expect within a few weeks – as it becomes increasingly clear that the EU is not prepared to defy the U.S. – that the Iranian nuclear programme will resume with a vengeance.

At that point the danger of a U.S., Israeli and Saudi attack on Iran will grow.

In fact this episode has been a profoundly humiliating one for Europe, exposing the extent of its powerlessness.

Not only did Trump ignore pleas to stand by the JCPOA from the U.S.’s closest European allies – Merkel, Macron and May – but he apparently did not even inform them in advance of the sweeping sanctions on Iran which he had decided to impose.

The European leader who has come out worst from this affair is France’s vain and foolish President Emmanuel Macron.

Macron appears to have genuinely believed that he had forged some sort of personal relationship with Trump, and that France’s contribution to the U.S.’s recent strike on Syria had made this bond even stronger.

In reality what Macron’s recent trip to Washington has done is simply expose the extent to which Trump and the U.S. take neither him nor France seriously.  All his pleas were ignored, whilst his fawning behaviour towards Trump apparently went down badly back home.

As for Angela Merkel, she at least avoided in her trip to Washington the disastrous optics of Macron’s visit.  She is far too skilled and experienced a politician to be caught out in that way.

However no-one should be in any doubt that it is Merkel’s disastrous leadership of Germany and of Europe which has brought Europe to this pass.

Merkel, Macron and May, Not Maggie

Ever since she became German Chancellor she has repeatedly sacrificed European and German interests in order to avoid rocking the boat with the U.S.

Thatcher: Stood up to U.S. sanctions.

In July 2014 she took the fateful step of supporting the U.S.’s demand for sectoral sanctions against Russia even though these were contrary to German economic interests, in effect legitimising the U.S. practice of imposing unilateral sanctions without the agreement of the UN Security Council.  That makes it all but impossible to see how she can realistically oppose such sanctions now.

The contrast with Margaret Thatcher – who in the 1980s vigorously opposed unilateral U.S. sanctions intended to block Russian pipeline projects – is instructive.

In fact European behaviour over the JCPOA has been a textbook case of appeasement.

Instead of telling Donald Trump that a unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA would be contrary to international law – which it is – and that Europe would strongly oppose US withdrawal from an international agreement which was not only working but with which Iran is abiding, European leaders like Merkel, Macron and May instead told Trump that they agreed with him that the JCPOA was in some way “imperfect” and would have to be “improved”.

Needless to say that not only failed to persuade Donald Trump to stick with the JCPOA; it almost certainly emboldened him, convincing him that he is right to pull out of it.

Trump’s decision to pull out of the JCPOA and to impose sweeping unilateral sanctions on Iran will undoubtedly embitter European opinion against the U.S.  It is also likely to make Europe more resistant to any further U.S. pressure to ramp up sanctions against Russia.  Unlike trade with Iran, European and especially German trade with Russia is indispensable for the European and German economies, which explains why constant U.S. pressure on Germany to pull out of the Nord Stream 2 project has been resisted.

In the longer term this episode probably will harden further the anti-U.S. trend in voting on the part of European electorates, though it is worth pointing out that some of the right wing ‘populist’ European politicians who have benefitted from this process are not friends of Iran’s.

However in the immediate term Iran’s economic salvation as it finds itself under renewed sanctions pressure will come not from Europe but from Russia and China and the other Eurasian states.

This commentary originally appeared on The Duran.

Alexander Mercouris is a political commentator and the editor-in-chief of The Duran.

110 comments for “The EU Will Not Stand by Iran

  1. jimbo
    May 17, 2018 at 14:42

    It’s coming more and more clear that Trump is a real O.G. and he does not give a fuck.

    Declining US, I don’t think so. Military bases all over the world, top weapon systems, got weapons up in space, the US dollar still the only currency that matters, sheeeit. Trump ain’t playing. Treaties, negotiations, compromises, that shit’s for pussies.

    Might fucking work. Don’t like it? Lump it.

  2. Bill Goldman
    May 17, 2018 at 10:26

    Republican opposition to JCPOA preceded the election of Trump and foretold his reaction when he became President. It wasn’t the US which gave away more, but Rouhani who gambled and lost. I agree that the EU is gutless in the face of Trump’s assault on the treaty but so is the vacillating mainstream Democrats with their two faced policy of attacking Trump for “colluding” with Putin at the same time they are fawning over his obeisance to Israel over the Jerusalem seat switch, their pro war whoops in Syria and North Korea, his embrace of right wing fascist nations in Europe, and more. That includes the so-called progressive Democrats. Of course, the Republicans are hopelessly in Trump’s bagmen’s pockets.

  3. Bill
    May 17, 2018 at 09:51

    I fear you are right. Now is the time for them to stand up to Trump because if they don’t, he will walk all over them. He will just consider them to be his subjects.
    They could turn to the east and make deals with China, Russia, Japan, India and Korea. If they unite, they can inflict much more harm on the US than the US on them. There may be some pain now but in the end, they’d be much better off. Trump’s strategy is to always divide everyone and if they allow him to do it, they might as well get on their knees.

  4. Kay
    May 16, 2018 at 13:53

    Yet, the EU just dropped the dollar to exchange oil with Iran in euros. Iran dropped the dollar several weeks ago.
    Iran is better off pivoting EAST, and it has already. A rail service from China to Iran just established too, and Iran is a very big Chinese ASSET now as Iran will be part of the silk road project.
    The US global HEGEMONY rests on the dominating USD, which many countries, as the US/ISRAELI BULLY, WILL MOVE AWAY FROM.
    I’m certain the EU countries will not be happy about another regime change war and mass migration to the EU out of Iran.
    Iran is a game changer in terms of dying US HEGEMONY. China will step in if Iran is attacked.

  5. Tom F
    May 16, 2018 at 13:52

    If “the authorities” want you to believe something that seems most unlikely, to the point of stupidity and back their claim with nothing worthwhile, then they should not be in the least bit surprised, when thinking people don’t go along with the nonsense being peddled.

    “The authorities” must love the trusting types like Known Unknown but realistically it seems more likely that she/he is actively trolling on “officialdom’s” behalf.

  6. Den Lille Abe
    May 15, 2018 at 16:01

    Please, the US is not the world, and EU has seen the Monster, the US is EU’s enemy, no more no less, if the EU can be part of destroying the Hegemon , they will. There is no lost love between them.

  7. Nop
    May 15, 2018 at 09:19

    Euro “leaders” are all spineless minions of the globalist/MIC cabal.

  8. mark
    May 14, 2018 at 22:35

    AM is surely correct in his assessment.
    The EU leaders immediately started conceding that the agreement was “flawed”, Iran’s “malign influence” “had to be reined in””, Iran’s missiles “needed to be addressed” etc. etc. Very wobbly from the outset. Bog standard appeasement.
    If Washington’s EU satraps immediately caved in to Obama and Biden over Russian sanctions, which were far more damaging economically, they are not going to grow some balls and continue trading with Iran. They will just roll over. They always do.
    Any concessions that were made by Iran would just lead to an ever growing list of ever more impudent demands – that Iran disarms even conventionally, dismantles its political and judicial system, recognises Israel, the list is endless. They just want to destroy Iran on behalf of Israel.
    They would just find additional pretexts for ever expanding sanctions, like not liking Persian cats or Persian carpets or pistachio nuts.
    This will probably play out with further military adventures in Syria and Lebanon targeting Iran and Hezbollah. Further Bolton/ MEK style terrorism and subversion against Iran aiming at regime change.
    Iran is unwise to expect any support from Russia. In the past, Russia has done nothing at all to help Iran. It refused to supply S300s Iran had paid for, invented excuses to avoid completing Bushehr, and supported US economic strangulation of Iran on bogus WMD pretexts that it recognised were false. Ditto China. Both are unhealthily close to Israel and Netanyahu.
    It’s hard to see any positive outcome here. Some people are expecting a rift between the US and EU but Macron and Co. will just swallow the humiliation. Business as usual. Maybe war will shuffle the pack and bring about some improvement. That grim prospect is probably the best we can hope for.

  9. Overpopulation
    May 14, 2018 at 19:18

    Macron may be vain, but he is certainly not foolish. He knew very well that Trump was unlikely to change his mind on Iran, and said so multiple times. The strikes on Syria were not meant to curry favor from the US. Insofar as the strikes had any ulterior motive with regard to the US, it was to show off France ‘ role as the de facto European leader in military and foreign affairs.

  10. Mary M
    May 14, 2018 at 12:00

    The actions of the US continue to be against International Law and it is now considered a rogue state.
    How can Europeans, using their intellectual abilities, go along with the Russian and Iran sanctions?
    It is ludicrous and unfortunate that they have let the US become their master…all they are is vassals of
    Washington, which is the capital of a quickly failing nation. Go your own way Europeans and save yourselves!

  11. mike k
    May 14, 2018 at 09:47

    The article linked to below says in many words what I have been saying in few – unless Russia/(China) draws a red line in Syria/Iran, the Empire will push them to the wall with increasingly aggressive attacks, setting them up eventually for a conventional weapons knock out punch. Paradoxically, this is a case where a declared willingness to draw a line and fight for it, may deter more disastrous consequences.

  12. mrtmbrnmn
    May 13, 2018 at 17:00

    The EU is a Junior Varsity criminal enterprise for looting the sovereign countries of Europe (see: the country formerly known as Greece).

    Rogue Nation USA is the Big Leagues. Rapacious and insatiable. We aim to loot the whole world.

  13. Marshalldoc
    May 13, 2018 at 15:26

    Damn! I’d love to bet that Mercouris is wrong. His track record, however argues that it would be a bad bet…

  14. Delia Ruhe
    May 13, 2018 at 14:20

    It’s not for nothing that Pepe Escobar calls the EU “the poodle parade.” And Margolis is dead right about Merkel, who has been the Lead Poodle.

  15. Lolita
    May 13, 2018 at 14:06

    In reality what Macron’s recent trip to Washington has done is simply expose the extent to which Trump and the U.S. take neither him nor France seriously. All his pleas were ignored, whilst his fawning behaviour towards Trump apparently went down badly back home.

    And yesterday a very explicit message was delivered to Macron… Just as they did with Hollande.

  16. Rob
    May 13, 2018 at 13:54

    I believe that Mr. Mercouris underestimates the low regard, if not utter contempt, that most European leaders have for Trump. Amongst the citizenry of their nations, the feelings are even worse. Hence, the possibility that they will defy Trump and declare their independence from U.S. domination is very real. By the same token, certain American companies will suffer mightily if they are shut out of the European market in a trade war, and they will apply pressure on Trump not to go forward with economic sanctions. It goes without saying that I hope for Europe to assert themselves and stop acting as America’s bitch.

    • Enver
      May 13, 2018 at 23:18

      I hope and pray you are right

    • mark
      May 14, 2018 at 22:48

      Very little chance of this (unfortunately.)
      Europe has the worst leadership in its history.
      When a Bismarck or a Metternich is required, what have we got?
      Theresa “Je Suis Juif” May, announcing how proud she is that Britain was responsible for the Balfour Declaration and sending Prince William to Israel on the day it murders another 55 Palestinians.
      Emmanuel “Rothschild” Macron.
      Merkel, who supplied five advanced Dolphin nuclear missile submarines to Israel completely free, courtesy of the German taxpayer.

  17. dfnslblty
    May 13, 2018 at 12:51

    ¿If in “the longer term”, why not in the “near term”?
    This essay reads like a “shut up!” toward citizen who might speak against potus.
    Protest Loudly.

    • mark
      May 14, 2018 at 22:49

      30 million people “protested loudly” against the Iraq War in 2003.
      What good did it do?

  18. mike k
    May 13, 2018 at 11:52

    US planning is in disarray. They are beginning to realize that their plan for world domination is failing, but really they have no plan B. So they will keep on the same blustering and threatening course which is the only one they know, and waste their remaining resources in trying to win through war and threats of war. If their opponents are patient and clever enough, they will end by lowering the quivering Empire gently into it’s grave, having skillfully avoided a final nuclear spasm from the fading old dotard.

  19. Bolaji,Gf
    May 13, 2018 at 10:16

    it is very important for EU to stand by Iran definitely us is not reliable and their policy is bad

  20. Abe
    May 13, 2018 at 09:56

    “in Syria, Israeli airstrikes and missile attacks will do nothing on their own to defeat Syria or change the West’s failing fortunes toward achieving regime change. They serve only as a means of provoking a retaliation sufficient enough for the West to cite as casus belli for a much wider operation that might effect regime change.

    “Attempts to place wedges among the Syrian-Russian-Iranian alliance have been ongoing. Claims that Russia’s refusal to retaliate after US-Israeli attacks or its refusal to provide Syria with more modern air defenses attempt to depict Russia as weak and disinterested in Syria’s well-being.

    “The fact remains that a Russian retaliation would open the door to a possibly catastrophic conflict Russia may not be able to win. The delivery of more modern air defense systems to Syria will not change the fact that US-Israeli attacks will fail to achieve any tangible objectives with or without such defenses. Their delivery will – however – help further increase tensions in the region, not manage or eliminate them. […]

    “sections of Syria are now under the control of occupying foreign armies. Turkey controls sections in northern Syria and the United States is occupying territory east of the Euphrates River. While Syria’s territorial integrity is essential – Syria will be better positioned to retake this territory years from now, than it is at the moment. Maintaining the status quo and preventing the conflict from escalating is the primary concern.

    “Over the next several years – within this status quo – the global balance of power will only shift further away from America’s favor. As that happens, Syria will have a much better opportunity to reclaim its occupied territory.

    “While it is only human for people to become infuriated by unprovoked attacks – these attacks by the US and Israel are designed specifically to provoke a response. Long-term patience is just as important to winning a war as immediate fury.

    “Sun Tzu stated in the timeless strategic treatise, ‘The Art of War,’ that:

    “‘A government should not mobilize an army out of anger, military leaders should not provoke war out of wrath. Act when it is beneficial, desist if it is not. Anger can revert to joy, wrath can revert to delight, but a nation destroyed cannot be restored to existence, and the dead cannot be restored to life.’

    “The US and its allies seek to provoke Syria and its allies into a war now while the US believes it still holds military primacy.”

    Israel Baits the Hook. Will Syria Bite?
    By Tony Cartalucci

    • mike k
      May 13, 2018 at 11:07

      Russia is in a very complex and difficult struggle to deal with the declining American Empire. Dealing with the obsessive power addicts controlling this unstable Empire is a dangerous affair and requires a flexible strategy and creative tactics. This is an x-dimensional chess match being played on many boards simultaneously. Actions based on simplistic or emotional bases, will produce poor results. Those who view the game most objectively and accurately have the best chance of steering it into the channels they prefer.

      These things being said however, the Empire realizes now that time is not on their side, and this may be it’s last chance to win a war waged with conventional weapons against Russia, and by extension dominate China as well. Therefore you can expect increasingly strong and damaging attacks designed to drain Russia’s capacity for waging conventional warfare.

      Unless Russia quickly lays down some red lines defining what it will strongly respond to in Syria, Iran, or Ukraine – it will be drawn into a conventional war by a thousand escalating cuts, that it cannot win against the conventional superiority of the Empire’s huge war machine. For instance, Russia should make clear that a huge missile attack from the American fleet on Syria will be met by sinking that fleet. Sooner or later Russia will be forced to meet force with proportional force, or be relentlessly pushed back into it’s own borders, weakened and unable to defend itself short of nuclear war. The US would be handed the advantage of slowly strangling Russia’s power without ever launching a nuclear weapon.

      • dfnslblty
        May 13, 2018 at 19:54

        Russia doesn’t draw lines – Russia, like most of the ME, waits and laughs at the policy-less usa;
        Knowing that it’s pointless with bullies, there are no lines drawn – only waiting for the boychild to fumble.
        Look at the hundreds of years the targets have survived oppressions of many kinds.

  21. jose
    May 13, 2018 at 09:29

    It is sad to admit it but I think the author is 100% correct. The facts regarding EU toward US has been one of appeasement. Thus far, instead of denouncing US pull out of the Iranian deal as arbitrary and contrary to not only international law but also European economic interests,The EU has just caved in. I can only hope Europe shows more spine in the near future.

    • mark
      May 14, 2018 at 22:53

      The EU has the spine of a jellyfish.

  22. Liam
    May 13, 2018 at 08:45

    Up is down and down is up as the lies become more and more absurd and the media spins the American people into further chaos.

    Massive Compilation of Media Material Proving April 7, 2018 Chemical Attack in Dhouma Syria Was a False Flag Conducted By The White Helmet Terrorists

    Chronicling Western Media Exploitation of Syrian Children: UK’s Channel 4 News Portrays White Helmets and Nour al-Zinki Terrorists Who Beheaded 12 Year Old Boy As Ordinary Farmers and Factory Workers

    Large Compilation of Clarity of Signal Most Important Investigative Posts (March-May 2018)Exposing White Helmets, False Flags And Propaganda Produced For War in Syria

    • jose
      May 13, 2018 at 09:41

      You are right Liam but remember that the American people is not completely innocent. The politicians in Washington have lied consistently to the people and yet there they stand like sheep swallowing every idiotic and illegal justification to sanction a country or make war. You know the saying: ” Fool me once you’re fault, fool me twice my fault” The proof is out there that shows how the US government has deceived over and over its citizens and yet they just shrug their shoulders and do nothing. I submit to you that enough information is out there to see US government’s true colors. It has been so out in the open that it takes a very conscious effort not to see the lies and deceptions.

      • Sam F
        May 13, 2018 at 17:21

        Yes, many make a conscious effort to ignore anything inharmonious with the oligarchy narrative that secures jobs and makes conversation risk-free. This battle was lost generations ago as money gained control over mass media and consolidated power through secret agencies and corrupt political parties. Now there are few ways for most to help organize societal resources to depose the oligarchy. Most people have the choice of conformity or fruitless symbolic resistance that keeps them on the outside.

        Our unregulated economy and oligarchy media have created a society whose highest principles are ignorance, selfishness, hypocrisy and malice; whose greatest skills are lying, cheating, stealing, bullying, harassment, and vandalism. This social and moral corruption leads the most successful into greed gaming: just serve the rich, and pretend that corruption is the only game in town and see where it takes you. Where there is no community, no literature, and no humanity, he who dies with the most toys wins.

      • Kiwiantz
        May 14, 2018 at 07:45

        Didn’t Hitler say the bigger the lies, the more people will believe it? The fact is most, Americans know that they are being lied & deceived to by their Government & that their Country is a warmongering,out of control, rogue despot, but they just don’t want to believe it or refuse to acknowledge the obvious? They are so brainwashed & gaslighted by MSM propaganda & their broken Political system that they are incapable of ever doing something about it? The corruption is so deep seated in the American system that it’s too late to do anything about it? The Country is buggered & you are witnessing the death throes of a Empire that’s going down the gurgler in a screaming heap, economically, socially & morally, Trump’s just accelerating the inevitable? Russia & China are just sitting back with a bag of popcorn & soda & watching the USA self destruct into it’s own unipolar black hole, ready to pick up the pieces & establish the multipolar World that’s no longer held hostage by US hegemony? It’s going to be a wild ride?

  23. Babyl-on
    May 13, 2018 at 07:59

    This article is right on the money.

    I have followed the flow of power in the EU for some years and it is clear that the EU is essentially a German mini-empire under the larger US led empire. Review the terms of the Lisbon treaty and then especially the Growth and Stability Act and you can see how power was accumulated by Merkel’s Germany. That put Merkel in the driver’s seat when the Greek crisis hit and she made every decision throughout the crisis. The money that has been “loaned” to Greece has all gone to pay back German (and one or two in France) banks which are in reality insolvent. The “loaned” the money to Greece knowing full well it could never be paid back, it was an accounting maneuver to hide the financial weakness. Of course there is more to this story but look also at the functionaries in the EU – all hand picked by Merkel, Junker (the crook who set up tax evasion deals before his position now) and the other key positions in the EU are there only by permission of Merkel. France is a hollow nation with no power what-so-ever it was subsumed into the German EU empire long ago.

    With that as background, Merkel said just within the last three days (I paraphrase) We need broader negotiations with Iran to include their missal development and their presence in Syria (a mirror of the US view). That, of course, is a deal killer for the JCPOA Iran has already said take it as is or nothing. So the real power of Europe has already submitted to US demands. The decision has been made. So short term German companies don’t make money from Iran, (they still make plenty no matter what – Iran business just means even more) that’s acceptable to keep the Empire in tact to continue their market monopolies.

  24. DR-Montreal
    May 13, 2018 at 07:05

    Nothing, absolutely nothing, is going to prevent the intended attack on Iran by the diabolical US-SA-Israel triad.

    Iran will be the next Poland 1939, and like Polish allies Britain and France at that time, Russia and China will have to decide to stand by Iran or throw her under the bus playing for appeasement, or time, as they surely know they will be next.

    Re the attack on Iran there will not be a total invasion like Iraq. The northern shore of the Persian Gulf will be occupied, the rest of Iran absolutely clobbered with air and missile strikes–the Curtis LeMay recipe for North Korea redux–keep bombing the infrastructure until you run out of targets.

    • Rob
      May 13, 2018 at 14:09

      And in such an attack, what do you think will happen to the flow of oil out of the Persian Gulf through the Straits of Hormuz, which Iran could block with relative ease? Much of the world is dependent on that oil, and we can expect the price to skyrocket well beyond $200/barrel. Will that benefit the United States and its allies? The fact that the U.S. is not dependent on Gulf oil will not shield it from the price shock. Domestic oil producers might like it, but the American people will not.The world’s economy will be in deep shit for an extended period of time. I don’t believe that the great mass of people will put up with it this time around, and they will demand that their own governments cease and desist from hostilities, or better yet, not start them.

      • Marb
        May 14, 2018 at 05:35

        When was the last time established power in any western country listened to the voices of “the great mass of people”… that is a delusion … this endless cycle of wars and territorial aggression, not to mention illegality under international law … is due to rapacious greed its that simple …. our… over lords couldn’t give a damn what “Non people” like us to quote Edward Herman, think …if our countries were functioning grass roots democracy’s our civilization and its economic system based on the fantasy of endless growth would be buried forever … the inequality is not a side effect but an integral part of the system , this civilization as it has evolved up to the present could not function without the flagrantly inherent gangster-ism…..

    • Kiwiantz
      May 14, 2018 at 08:09

      It’s not going to happen, Iran would not be a easy Country to walk over, such as Iraq, as Iran is very strong militarily? The US Military guys have already crunched the numbers & every scenario is bad for the US & Israel? And there’s another factor to consider? Iran is more of a ally to Russia than Syria ever was so Russia would not allow a invasion of Iran to happen?? Russia was invited into Syria by its legitimate Govt & threw a massive spanner in the regime change works & this attempted, US orchestrated coup of Syria? Putin’s support completely turned the course of that conflict, completely humiliating America & its allies, especially thwarting the US proxy Armies of ISIS despite playing a dysfunctional, deceptive double game, were they armed then fought these same groups? America had to resort to faked false flag, staged phoney chemical attacks to justify their illegal presence in Syria & their ridiculous & ineffective missile attacks! And although Russia doesn’t set corny red lines or draw stupid lines in the sand like the dopey US does, America has been notified, in no uncertain terms, that their is a limit too what they can get away with & that limit has been reached in Syria & even more so in Iran?

  25. Khm
    May 13, 2018 at 06:43

    I totally agree with you. As a Persian citizen who is fed up with this stupid sucking Iran’s money and spending it on useless deeds. I hope very soon they go back to negotiating table and once and for all start working with the western countries in proper manner.

  26. Edward F. Roby
    May 13, 2018 at 06:09

    Voila! At last one writer understands the raw meaning of Trump’s edict. Forget about local sideshows like Iran-Israel/Saudi, “sacred” international agreements and dismayed diplomats. The de facto emperor of the Pax Americana has simply reminded his pathetic EU gagle (and all other pretenders) how geopolitics has always worked. Power calls the shots; the powerless do as they are told.

    E.g. Uncle Sam tore up 500 treaties with “sovereign” tribes. Why would his European satellites and lackeys in business suits believe they would forever get better treatment than equally powerless natives? Why do they ridiculously pretend to believe the American empire has military bases in 150 countries (e.g. German, England, Italy) for noble, altruistic reasons?

    Since 1945, the European “leaders” have learned to kowtow. Too late to unlearn that now. The compliant Europeans will compromise again — hastening the day of their replacement by political movements that serve national interests..

    And BTW, this U.S. humiliation of the crumbling EU (& the superfluous NATO) resonates perfectly with Trump’s unorthodox campaign platform. Say what you want about him, he does not think small. He sees the world of power and wealth as it really is, not like his sentimental critics.

  27. john wilson
    May 13, 2018 at 04:48

    Obviously the US owns the politicians of most countries in the EU just as they own the OPCW etc. The author is right and by the way, Alexander appears on RT’ cross talk from time to time and is always interesting and well worth hearing his opinions.

  28. Sudipto Bhakta
    May 13, 2018 at 03:21

    The election process throughout Europe should change. Non funded election campaigns and pre assigned common platforms to discuss and debate, should give a level playing field to non corporate entities in the political arena.
    Or else, we are just left with oligarchs and corporate nouthpieces enforcing their fiefdom on the citizens.
    EU is a sad case of a consortium of paedophiles, arms manufacturers, thugs and idiots who simply manage to rule because of money and contacts.
    This society is bound to implode .
    People often talk about middle east and its anarchy, but I am sure, the host to the next war will be Europe, again.

    • Michael Morrissey
      May 13, 2018 at 04:26

      I think you got your letters crossed: “EU” should be “USA.”

      • john wilson
        May 13, 2018 at 04:50

        No Michael, he just didn’t mention the US as I’m sure he knows, they are both part of the satanic cult taking over the world.

  29. CitizenOne
    May 12, 2018 at 23:57

    Yeah well sure. Just look how Europe capitulated to Hitler. They are of a bunch of bureaucrats who don’t want to rock the boat. The financial system in the West is surely going to be challenged by Asia one of these days in the far future but our Anglo Saxon American system is not about to be abandoned, while simultaneously welcoming the Yuan the new coin of the realm. Besides Iran has been in hot water for decades. Nothing new here. It will be easy for the bureaucrats to acquiesce to the demands they support America and they will care little. Oil production technology has made Iran irrelevant and we have seen the US become the largest gas producer in the world in the last decade. We are in a position to export oil and gas rather than import it. What a better way to drive up prices than to embargo Iranian Oil. Hows that for making America great again? Trump has his eyes on the money and his supporters (big business) period. International diplomacy is what he could not care less about.

    Ultimately it is still the Saudis who are the biggest player in the oil market and we have forged deep relations with their government which is also heavily invested in the US Stock Market. Diminishing the supply of oil from Iran will just make that relationship stronger.

    Iran has no strings to pull financially with the West and its long term partners. They might do well by China and other nations who have placed their bets on Iran but for the US domestic oil companies Trumps actions are welcomed with open arms.

    The money powers do not spend much time fearing the possibility that Iran might restart their nuclear weapons programs as Iran has threatened to do. In fact it is anticipated with much exuberance. If Iran should make such a move or even if the West can create a story about Iran reopening its nuclear weapons program like the story about Iraq’s WMDs it ultimately benefits the West and moves us closer to the goal isolating Iran and convincing other nations to support sanctions which will be aimed at capping Iranian petroleum exports.

    The entire affair can be seen in the light of increased profits for US producers. If the Iran Nuclear deal is a “terrible deal” for America as Donald Trump has repeatedly stated it is a “terrible deal” for US oil companies and the domestic producers of petroleum who faced smaller profits because of the presence of Iranian oil in the market.

    Already oil prices have jumped as Trump pulled out of the Iranian nuclear deal. The investors are betting that the price for oil will continue to climb as turmoil escalates. The stock holders will benefit from this move by Trump.

    I’m sure he is quite aware of his own stock portfolio and he might have just done it to improve his net wealth.

    We live in an era where Congress and its members are all aspiring to become rich and to Hell with the consequences. They pander to their lobbyists to get money allowed now under US law to be potentially infinite to ensure their reelections.

  30. May 12, 2018 at 23:23

    “The contrast with Margaret Thatcher – who in the 1980s vigorously opposed unilateral U.S. sanctions intended to block Russian pipeline projects – is instructive.” …Come on! Let’s not make Maggie a hero of detente! The Soviet Union was disintegrating during her time. The West was pilfering everything coming out of Russia.

  31. OlyaPola
    May 12, 2018 at 22:43

    “The EU will not stand by Iran”

    Framing attempts to assign significance to that framed and its framing.

    Such restricts wider strategic analyses through encouraging/implying that only binary options are available within the framed linear paradigm.

    A lateral question would probably be framed ” What significance if any should be assigned to whether or not the “EU” will or will not stand by Iran and what strategies -including “how to’s” if any, consistent with purpose and informed by means condition ends, should be considered in the event of any outcome?”

  32. May 12, 2018 at 22:33

    Rinse ,lather and repeat.
    Move on
    Everything we are experiencing was baked in the cake called JCPOA.
    Two great articles that will put minds to rest.
    Hence sit back pop out the popcorn and crisps an beer or two and for the abstemious some cold ice tea or coffee.

  33. backwardsevolution
    May 12, 2018 at 21:36

    All speculation. We don’t have any idea what’s really going on. With the price of oil up, the U.S. frackers are back in the money. From the movie Good Will Hunting where Will is talking to the NSA guys:

    “Meanwhile he realizes the only reason he was over there in the first place was so that we could install a government that would sell us oil at a good price, and of course the oil companies use a little skirmish over there to scare up domestic oil prices, a cute little ancillary benefit for them, but it ain’t helping my buddy at $2.50 a gallon.”

    Maybe there is method to Trump’s madness. He said he wanted to end NATO or cut it back severely, said it was a waste of money and lives. Maybe this is a way of getting this done through the back door. Who knows!

    • Bob In Portland
      May 13, 2018 at 13:32

      It would make sense, but Trump isn’t in control. The people who have been dividing oil fields among themselves since the last century are in control. Also, you say that there may be a method to Trump’s madness. I don’t think so. He may on Tuesday want to dissolve NATO, but on Thursday he will either been convinced, cajoled or threatened into reversing his stance.

      Trump’s irrational blathering does serve the Deep State’s interests though. He is a threat to the stability of the world, or at least would be if he were actually in power. He’s like a police dog at the end of a chain. You obey the cop on the other end of the chain because you don’t want to be torn up by the dog. The cop on the end of the chain is our Deep State.

  34. Sean Ahern
    May 12, 2018 at 20:49

    The author cited the economic interests of some large European manufacturers that would not risk being shut out of the US market which is vastly larger than Iran’s. What about China? Isn’t this the time for China to use some of its economic might to give a reality check to the US Empire in its death throes? Could China help the West Europeans grow a back bone? If Russia is drawn into a middle east war, will China just sit it out and wait for the dust to settle and then deal with the “winner?”

    • Piotr Berman
      May 14, 2018 at 07:19

      I am lazy to find the links, but China has a plan already, a bank to transfer payments between Chinese companies and Iran, and separating larger companies that invest in Iran from American market, e.g. an investor in steel production. Russia and most probably India will do the same.

      I speculate that recent internal economic troubles in Iran were caused by liberalization of import that lead to trouble in “import substitution” companies, firing of workers etc. Iran can return to import substitution and less advanced technology level. E.g. buses and trucks using designs like in Russia or China rather than Daimler-Benz. Additionally, before the agreement, Eurasian countries were making some tightening of sanctions and now the may be emphatic in thwarting them.

      It is not in the interest of China and India to have trade dictated by American whims. Russia has profound interest in the crumbling of the sanction mania of the West, while China and India loose when oil prices increases through decreased Iranian export and “war premium”.

      European elites have some interests, but over the years the “need of American leadership and security” was a shiboleth of “reasonable politicians”, resulting in a collection of pet dogs: poodles walk gracefully in step with the master, terriers and chihuahuas alternate between dragging a bit and trotting ahead, dachshunds that have to be dragged from time time, raising interesting questions: is Macron more like a terrier or more like a chihuahua? What is the breed of Merkel? May, for all I know, is a poodle.

  35. david
    May 12, 2018 at 20:35

    Fun fact list of those who supported the Iran Nuke Deal
    (((From the USA)))…….
    1) General James Mattis …..Present US Defense Secretary (I read the document 3 times)….
    2) General Joseph Dunford….. Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff….
    3) General John Hyten….. Head of US Strategic Command…..
    4) General Joseph Votel ….Head of US Central Command CENTCOM…..
    (((From Israel)))
    1) General Gadi Eisenkot ….Head of Israeli Military….
    2) Ephraim Halevy…. Former Director of Mossad…..
    3) Ehud Barak ….Former Prime Minister and Defense Minister….
    4) Uzi Arad…. Bib’s National Security Advisor (“There is no smoking gun”)…
    Now ask yourself a question, what intelligence do you have that the people above do not?

    • Anon
      May 12, 2018 at 21:34

      And what intelligence do you have that the opposers do not? Fact and argument are needed.

      • Bob In Portland
        May 13, 2018 at 13:35

        So far the opposers are Trump, Netanyahu and Bolton. I rest my case.

        • Rob
          May 13, 2018 at 14:25

          Those who oppose the nuclear accord have a set agenda that bears no relation to Iran’s compliance with the accord. Hence, the ludicrous dissimulation from the likes of Netanyahoo, Trump and warmongers within both the Republican and Democratic party establishments. Actual facts are irrelevant, as far as they are concerned. They seek regime change in Syria and Iran. Who would benefit? Only Israel, Saudi Arabia and their Gulf allies. I see no benefit for the U.S.–only pain, massive costs and loss of prestige and influence. I don’t mind the American Empire coming to an end. I just wish it could happen without so much bloodshed, suffering and waste.

  36. Chumpsky
    May 12, 2018 at 20:09

    Rouhani has stated that Iran will abide by the requirements established by JCPOA regardless of the US reneging on the agreement.

    The US pullout of the plan of action will give Trump the opportunity to create his own false narrative to manipulate the US and World masses into believing Iran is building weapons of mass destruction and whatever else suits Israel’s fancy. I would expect a dog and pony show from Trump in the coming days or weeks, a la Netanyahu, that posit a narrative of how certain terrorist acts within the US or its allies are directly engineered by Iran to destabilize the flow of Saudi oil and South Arabian gas interests.

    Please see John Kirakou’s article for an expecting buildup of anti-Iranian hype here:

    Terrorism perpetrated by the US or US intelligence agencies or their proxies/assets are used to keep European independents in line. Don’t think all these gassings, mass shootings and runaway vehicles are not fraught with design and purpose to achieve the goals of keeping the herd under control and in a state of political paroxysm. The Mossad and CIA are essentially one and the same. Cash and/or promises of a place in heaven to the disenfranchised do talk.

    The question that needs to be asked is: why can’t Europe produce an emerging leader who can assert his/her will against a declining empire lead by a compromised POTUS where there is an ascending block of economically cooperating countries lead by a competent and prescient president as an alternative? Are the tentacles of kosher nostra just too pervasive? Is there no one in Europe who can’t be blackmailed?

  37. ATS
    May 12, 2018 at 19:34

    EU by siding with Islamic state of Iran against the US will damage its long-term economic and political relationship with the majority of the Arab countries. EU should understand that for last three decad Radical Islamic movement was like a monster with two heads. One in represented by the Islamic state of Iran operating in shiea world and the other represented by Isis operating in Suni world. It is so sad to see EU countries side with either of the monsters against people of the middle east, simply to fight trump.

    • Anon
      May 12, 2018 at 21:32

      EU would not be taking sides by continuing JCPOA, it is a disarmament treaty. Rejecting it is taking sides.

    • Paranam Kid
      May 13, 2018 at 05:06

      @ATS:we have seen videos that show ISIS being a monster, no question about it. We have not seen any videos nor any objective accounts of Iran being a monster. Please elucidate your statement that Iran is a monster.

    • Bob In Portland
      May 13, 2018 at 13:39

      I would be curious to see how much business that the EU does with Sunni nations, or more precisely, Sunni nations under the House of Saud’s sway. I suspect that aside from weapons, oil industry equipment and luxury items for the rich, not too much. That may be enough for the EU to capitulate, but it’s not a slam dunk.

    • Piotr Berman
      May 14, 2018 at 07:27

      Majority of Arab countries? Like Algeria, Egypt, Lebanon and Iraq? Other than that you have a collection of “we do not care”, and “passionate” monarchies of the Persian Gulf (except for Kuwait, Qatar and Oman). Your “majority” is one barrel one vote.

      I do not have time to address all nonsense in your comment.

  38. Ishkabibble
    May 12, 2018 at 19:22

    There are four historic events that really matter for today’s US dollar and the modern-day US economy.

    First, in 1971 Nixon decided that nations that had lent money to the US by buying US “treasury” bonds could no longer redeem those bonds for physical gold. He supposedly was, as he put it, “temporarily” closing the “gold window”. Nixon was forced to do this because for several years US taxpayers could no longer pay “up front” for the US’s wars for war-corporations’ profit and worldwide de facto USD “reserve currency” hegemony. (Taxpayers still can’t pay up front.) Therefore, the US had (has) to “borrow” the money from other nations by selling to them US treasury bonds which those nations could at their maturity return to the US for either more paper or, most importantly, physical gold. In short, because the US did not have enough physical gold to send to those nations who wanted gold rather than more paper, again, Nixon was literally forced to do what he did or stop making war on the world. Again, he chose the former.

    Second, because the US economy would have collapsed without perpetual war and the economically-necessary military-industrial-complex to fight it, a solution had to to be found and a few desperate years later one was — the petro-dollar. It is very important to understand the petro-dollar’s origin
    because it and the ensuing “Carter Doctrine”
    explain most of the US’s military behavior around the world, and in particular, recently in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Somalia and, now, Iran.

    For just one example of the petro-dollar’s irresistible political power, in very early October 2017, for the first time ever, the Saudi King flew to Moscow and met with the head of the Russian Federation, who at that time just happened to be Vladimir Putin.

    The King’s trip sent an earth-shaking, absolutely clear message to the US Elite, as well as to the US President, who at that time just happened to be Donald Trump. A very few days after that unprecedented visit, on October 13, Trump announced that Iran was violating the JCPOA
    even though Iran was NOT violating the terms of that painstakingly negotiated and detailed agreement. The King’s visit to Russia and Trump’s announcement only a few days later was no mere coincidence.

    Third, the “Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008” (EESA) — the act that prevented the Western Elite from suffering losses and created the TBTF banks:
    Although there are many important, unprecedented actions allowed/required by that act, for the present purpose, the following Section 112 is most important:

    THE SECRETARY SHALL COORDINATE, AS APPROPRIATE, WITH FOREIGN FINANCIAL AUTHORITIES AND CENTRAL BANKS TO WORK TOWARD THE ESTABLISHMENT OF SIMILAR PROGRAMS BY SUCH AUTHORITIES AND CENTRAL BANKS. To the extent that such foreign financial authorities or banks hold troubled assets as a result of extending financing to financial institutions that have failed or defaulted on such financing, such troubled assets qualify for purchase under section 101.”

    Just exactly how much of this unprecedented, completely-experimental “coordination” between foreign financial authorities and central banks is taking place this very day and just exactly WHAT is their REAL goal? We can make a pretty good guess by reading what influential US VIP George Kennan wrote several decades ago:

    “…..we have about 50% of the world’s wealth but only 6.3% of its population. This disparity is particularly great as between ourselves and the peoples of Asia. In this situation, we cannot fail to be the object of envy and resentment. Our real task in the coming period is to devise a pattern of relationships which will permit us to maintain this position of disparity without positive detriment to our national security. ……..We need not deceive ourselves that we can afford today the luxury of altruism and world-benefaction.
    We should cease to talk about vague and — for the Far East — unreal objectives such as human rights, the raising of the living standards, and democratization. The day is not far off when we are going to have to deal in straight power concepts. The less we are then hampered by idealistic slogans, the better.

    We should recognize that our influence in the Far Eastern area in the coming period is going to be primarily military and economic. ……… It is my own guess, on the basis of such study as we have given the problem so far, that Japan and the Philippines will be found to be the corner-stones of such a Pacific security system and if we can contrive to retain effective control over these areas there can be no serious threat to our security from the East within our time. Only when we have assured this first objective, can we allow ourselves the luxury of going farther afield in our thinking and our planning.”

    What many people do not know is that foreign banks were also bailed out by future US taxpayers to the tune of hundreds of billions of printed-out-of-thin-air “dollars”. The most important question for this moment of possible vassal-state revolt is as follows. Just exactly WHAT promises did European authorities make to the US in return for their banks being bailed out and their Elite not having to suffer major financial losses? For example, did they promise to do in the future whatever the heck “Washington” told them to do, such is follow the US’s lead with respect to pulling out of the JCPOA and re-imposing sanctions on Iran, or blaming Russia for everything, or bombing Syria after an obvious false flag operation in Douma?

    Fourth, as others have already mentioned, after having experienced firsthand the US’s post-WWII utopia, Russia, China and Iran and some other nations have recently made their own agreements and they involve something called the “petro-yuan”, physical gold
    and an alternative to the SWIFT system:

    What should now be obvious even to cadavers is the wildly-flailing desperation of the US Elite and their political slaves in Washington, the European Parliament and in the capitols of their various vassal states. The EESA was/is the granite monument of that desperation for the entire world to “admire”.

    The de-industrialized, hollowed-out, run-down, perpetual-war-based US economy and USD-hegemony are now, for the first time since the end of WWII, being seriously challenged by other increasingly powerful nations’ economies AND their currencies AND their weapons. Things are no longer going the Superpower US’s way. China’s economy is perhaps even now larger than that of the US.

    To sum up, we are living in the midst of the competition of all competitions and its outcome will determine the “place” of the US economy and the “strength” and ultimate fate of the Fed’s quadrillions of printed-out-of-thin-air USD in the “international community”. IMO, the only important question is whether the US Elite will “go gentle into that good night” and develop a peace-based economy, or is it going to lead the world into a no-win nuclear shootout at the OK Corral.

  39. mike k
    May 12, 2018 at 19:09

    Europe, and especially Germany need to wake up and realize that by backing the Empire, they are declaring war on Russia and China. This is not going to go well for them. If they are crazy enough to pitch in with D. Trump and Netanyahoo in their project to rule the world – they need to consider that the price may be their extinction.

    On the other hand, Germany and the rest of Europe has the chance to become the key player balancing the world power blocks, preventing nuclear war, and ensuring a profitable multipolar world for some time to come. Alliance with Russia makes a lot more sense for Europe than betting everything on the crazy men behind the American Empire.

  40. F. G. Sanford
    May 12, 2018 at 18:42

    RAI 24 news headline moments ago:
    (Paris attacked Macron: We will pay, but we won’t give a millimeter)

    Wow! That didn’t take long!

    • Abe
      May 12, 2018 at 21:43

      According to French authorities, a man shouting “Allahu Akbar” killed a passer-by and injured four others in the heart of Paris before being shot dead by police.

      The Islamic State group’s Aamaq news agency said in a statement that the assailant carried out the attack in response to the group’s calls for supporters to target members of the United States-led military coalition squeezing the extremists out of Iraq and Syria.

      President Emmanuel Macron tweeted his praise for police who “neutralised the terrorist”:

      “La France paye une nouvelle fois le prix du sang mais ne cède pas un pouce aux ennemis de la liberté.”

      “France is once again paying the price of blood, but will not cede an inch to enemies of freedom.”

      In other words, France and other EU “partners” better not get any ideas about withdrawing from their “commitments” or “Islamic terror” will pay them a li’l visit.

      Wow! That didn’t take long!

      • Paranam Kid
        May 13, 2018 at 05:10

        @Abe: France and other EU “partners” will get visits from ISIS in any case because ISIS, aligned with Sunni Islam though having absolutely nothing to do with it, is NOT aligned with Iran, i.e. Shi’a Islam. So whatever the EU does, ISIS will keep coming.

      • Bob In Portland
        May 13, 2018 at 13:41

        Of course, no one will connect the attack to the joint US/Saudi radicalization and war efforts in Chechnya back in the 90s. Somehow the terrorist will be connected to Iran when in reality he and the people who created him are at opposite poles.

    • Joe Tedesky
      May 12, 2018 at 23:43

      I actually thought that the European terror attacks would replace the Jew victim with a Christian indigenous French person targeted by instead of by a Sunni Arab would be a MEK/Mossad Persian Patsy in the Arab’s place.

      We will have confirmation of terror attacks when CNN goes all ‘Breaking News’ ballistic reporting on it, as their overarching enthusiasm of these terrible events is their give away. I know, I know, how else could they report on it? Gee, I don’t know, but I do know this, and that is their reporting will leave out more than they repetitively report on it, as omissions of truth replace hard facts… that’s one sign of our media colluding with our Zionist conspired Government.

      I also don’t think anyone of any importance wasn’t prepared for this day, and there in lies Trump’s failure of his pulling out of the JPCOA. Europe just needs to make up its mind to its securing its own sovereignty, while Russia and China will sit it out and wait for further instructions. The more I learn about all of this the more I wonder to how well Trump has thought this through. Trump’s biggest mistake is his going all Zionist on the world.

  41. Paul G.
    May 12, 2018 at 18:33

    The issue or question is deeper than just Iran: Will the EU, not the Baltic and Polish ass kissers, finally be fed up with being told to jump by whatever POTUS, and be expected to ask “how high”. Trump’s arrogance and spectacular lack of diplomacy hopefully will hasten that moment. If not maybe it will hasten Europeans finally getting rid of the likes of Merkel, Macron, et al.

    • John A
      May 13, 2018 at 03:14

      Just like Obama now cashing in his subservience with a mega book deal and speeches to Wall Street banksters, the European leaders do the same. Blair, Bush’s poodle, is now worth 50-100 million, the total nonentity Hollande has got a mega book deal, other ‘New’ Labour politicians also enjoy the revolving door into banks, ditto Cameron and Obsorne.
      They dont represent their electorate, they represent the deep state, hence all the hysteria about Corbyn because he might, just might, stick to his principles and not bow down to Wall St and Washington.

      • Bob In Portland
        May 13, 2018 at 13:49

        Spotting someone with a huge book deal is often a good way to note who has been working for the Deep State and its equivalents overseas.

        My favorite was Marcia Clark getting a five million dollar deal for a book for a case she LOST. Like Mark Fuhrman, they have secured their retirements with book deals, TV shows on cable, that sort of thing. When Clark’s book was in the remainder file six months after its release it was clear the fix was in.

        Think of all the creeps in the security establishment and think of all those remainders.

  42. Jeff
    May 12, 2018 at 18:29

    I fear Mr. Mercouris is correct to the extent that the Europeans won’t have the balls to stand up to the US. As I said somewhere, all Angela Merkel has to do is tell Trump that the day that a fine is levied on a German company, is the last day that the US will have access to Ramstein Air Base. That alone would be a major boost to world peace. I also don’t think that these sanctions are going to be as onerous as everyone is claiming. Iran is not doing business in US dollars and will sell it’s oil on the futures market in China where it will be traded in Yuan. Iran is a member of the EAEU and can easily trade within that block. Plus the US is going to have its hands full of a trade war with China who will not accept Trump’s demands. Furthermore, the renegotiation of NAFTA is not going well. It’s not just Europe.

    The one ray of hope I see is that Mr. Putin cut the Russian military’s budget what does he know that nobody else seems to know?

    • Tom F
      May 12, 2018 at 18:42

      Putin seems to know that when push comes to shove he will just roll over and let the POTUS tickle his tummy.

      • Anon
        May 12, 2018 at 21:29

        No evidence or argument, just a partisan insult, is inappropriate for this site.

      • Bob In Portland
        May 13, 2018 at 13:52

        Tom F, read The Art Of War. When a city will inevitably collapse there is no need to risk your own defeat with attacking.

    • Paranam Kid
      May 13, 2018 at 05:14

      @Jeff: you are right, but that still leaves the EU having to decide how to play this. The lonegr they keep kicking the can down the road by bending and licking US boots, the more constaly financially and politically it is going to be when that can cannot be kicked any farther because we have reached the end of the road, a cul-de-sac.

  43. F. G. Sanford
    May 12, 2018 at 18:21

    I don’t think Mercouris has ever been wrong. He’s not a pessimist. He’s just not in love with wishful thinking.

    • FB
      May 12, 2018 at 23:09

      What a crackerjack…this so-called ‘author’ Mercouris has never been right…

      Biggest fail was prognosticating right before the missile strike on Shayrat that Tronald Dump would not hit Syria…

      Anyone who elevates the neoliberal monster M Thatcher is not of sound mind to begin with…

      Last year after the horrendous fire in the public housing complex in Britain that killed many children…this yahoo was griping against ‘misplaced’ anti-austerity sentiment…

      This guy is not worth the time of day and certainly doesn’t deserve to be on this serious site…

      • john wilson
        May 13, 2018 at 05:01

        You are quite right, FB, this is a serious site and total rsoles like you are not welcome here.

  44. Garrett Connelly
    May 12, 2018 at 18:18

    Here I write to disagree with Alexander Mercouris over this idea of Europe not backing the US. The last lines set up the hope Europe will become free of US hegemony.

    “However in the immediate term Iran’s economic salvation as it finds itself under renewed sanctions pressure will come not from Europe but from Russia and China and the other Eurasian states.”

    Iran, Russia and China trade with each other using their own currencies. The trans continental rail network from Beijing to London includes a spur line to Tehran. A major pipeline for Russian gas will soon be completed to China, reducing dependence on European market. This is the US plan for sending liquified gas on ships but that entire industry may be a polluting financial sink hole dirtier than coal even if it does get out of debt.

    With two trains from China to London per week, the US is losing on every front. The entire west coast plus the northeastern US are also not having problems with Iran. Hotel man and his pentagonian attack dogs may be forced into bombing and killing in the light of day, all by themselves.

    • john wilson
      May 13, 2018 at 05:03

      And don’t forget, Garrett, what a wonderful target those gas filled ships would make. BANG !!!

  45. May 12, 2018 at 17:53

    I read Mercouris’ essay here elsewhere, and I have to say I strongly object to the attitude of inevitability predicted herein. Could not this article have been titled in the interrogative such as”Will the EU Stand by the Iran Deal?” e.g. Such a fatalistic attitude, no matter how likely it looks based on past behavior of the interrelationships between the US and EU, I find almost self prophetically desiring failure. But we are in uncharted waters with Trump’s election, his threats of trade wars, the now revealed threat of new chaos unleashed in the Middle East by this action, his previous pulling out of the Climate Accords, and the rise of China as a superpower to challenge the US’ already shaky economy. I would rather wait and see.

    • Joe Tedesky
      May 12, 2018 at 21:29

      Jessika Sergio Weigel writes the total opposite of what Alexander Mercouris did here with this article.

      • Paranam Kid
        May 13, 2018 at 05:21

        @Joe: I read Sergio’s article and found it well-written and well thought through, even helping me to see things a bit less pessimistic. But, the EU is bigger than Germany alone, despite the latter’s enormous weight. And the EU needs to act as a block, in concert with China and Russia, to counter the US with reciprocal measures. That block could easily win, hands down.

        But the EU is not a homgenous group, and I feel Mercouris is right about his observations about the EU. The EU will cave in to US pressure, and continue licking Trump’s boots, even thanking him for the privilege of being allowed to do so.

    • john wilson
      May 13, 2018 at 05:07

      Jessika, you’ve got your head in the sand if you really think Europe will ignore Trump over Iran sanctions. Yes, you can hope and we all do, but Mercouris is rightly adopting a pessimistic tone because on past form (since for ever it seems) he can see that the US always gets its way.

      • Realist
        May 14, 2018 at 08:56

        Washington always gets its way by adopting a strategy of doubling down on its demands whenever denied. It steadily raises the stakes even when not denied, leading its opponents to retreat out of fear for what these madmen might demand or do next. Everyone becomes terrified of drawing a line and just saying “no” to them. This behavior is the hallmark of the neocons.

  46. Joe Tedesky
    May 12, 2018 at 17:29

    Alexander Mercouris sure gives a person interested in geopolitics a lot to think about. While others speculate to how Europe will not join the U.S. by backing out of the JPCOA, Mercouris takes us in the other direction quite convincingly. I personally feel that Mercouris has it right, and if not his analysis certainly points us in the direction for us to play a shrewd game of devils advocate. As the saying goes, ‘think the worse and the best will happen’.

    Today I have been scouring the net reading French, German, and Russian news sites. For the Europeans it is without a doubt a time for reflection upon their relationship with the U.S., as for Russia it’s steady as she goes, as Russia seems to be walking down the center line as an independent of sorts.

    Like Alexander Mercouris stated with his outside the box analogy, the U.S. will benefit greatly if Europe merely rests its decision on trade, but on the other hand will Europe take this trashing by the U.S. of the JPCOA, as it’s chance to break free of their U.S. Masters? Why, can’t Europe see how pivotal it could be, if they were to distant themselves a bit from the American Empire? Besides that, Trump every time I see him around any Europeans he treats his allied leaders like vassals, and makes sure he appears to be more superior of them when he’s around his European counterparts. Trump gives a renewed meaning to the word ‘poodle’.

    As I read through the many websites today I’m starting to appreciate Russia’s hidden candor, when it comes to Putin’s balancing act between Iran and Israel. In a very real way and until more should unfold over the U.S. extracting itself away from the JPCOA, it seems that playing it loosely before making any commitment to either side would seem wise. Why give anyone an advantage by overreacting too soon, as it would be more in Russia’s favor to see where all of this madness is going. It’s very smart to not waste your breath talking while everyone is flipping out, so just sit back and listen, is what I take Putin’s noncommittal to be. On another level in the next few weeks there maybe a lot of Europeans left to eat their words of today… we will see.

    I’m hoping that the opposite will transpire other than what the brilliant Alexander Mercouris predicted. I’m wishing for a independent Europe to emerge out of this, and a pivotal one at that to decide on matters of world security. This free Europe may possibly be the only way forward, if the world is to free itself of the rogue U.S./Israeli alliance. Btw, I don’t include Saudi Arabia and the UAE in this alliance of Israel’s and the U.S., because those dumb bastards are just being made to play the part of the patsy. If you don’t believe me, just look at a map of the future Greater Israel.

    May I suggest, as I have so many other times before, recommend that you all read the Brookings ‘Which Path to Persia’, and there you will find your war strategy that’s sits on the table. Then you may ask yourself, will we?

    • Sam F
      May 12, 2018 at 21:19

      Mercouris notes that the EU is moved by economics, but their dislike of US trade instability may reduce US trade.
      If backing out of EU defense is a goal, he may do that regardless of EU counter-sanctions, better for everyone.
      If the Trump JCPOA rejection is to steal the 120 billion seized from Iran in 1979, he will not accept war expense.
      So the maneuver may be to increase Israeli bribes for the 2018-2020 campaigns, letting Bibi pose as defender.

      • Joe Tedesky
        May 12, 2018 at 21:44

        Hey Sam read this. Please note with U.S. Ambassadors like Grenell here, the U.S. is not making old friends feel friendly.

        • Sam F
          May 12, 2018 at 22:17

          Just what we need in diplomacy, a “rude,” “arrogant,” “unbearable,” “bully” who worked for Bolton.
          With ambassadors like that, we are on track for isolation and embargo, just what the doctor ordered.

          • Joe Tedesky
            May 12, 2018 at 23:19

            Hey Sam when I read this linked article I thought of your first reply comment here.


            Tom Luongo mentions this Alexander Mercouris article in his analogy of Trump pulling out of the JPCOA.

          • Sam F
            May 13, 2018 at 09:02

            Interesting that China has stopped buying US bonds and is switching from Saudi to Iran oil. Luongo sees Russia and China committed to Iran economically, and makes an argument of mainly economic warfare.

            He thinks the dollar will spike, stocks collapse, foreign debts default, causing financial damage to Israel in a year or so, and that Putin is awaiting the right moment for a judo move.

            He thinks the Trump plan is to fool the US to “create chaos” in Iran via economic war and the MEK, and to “bully our allies… to atomize Syria” which he thinks will backfire.

          • Joe Tedesky
            May 13, 2018 at 12:46

            It sounds like you got the just of it Sam. I hope you enjoyed the diverse opinion of Luongo contrasted to Mercouris here. It’s any wonder to what shoe will drop next. Joe

          • Sam F
            May 13, 2018 at 14:26

            Yes, thank you, Joe, those articles are worth reading!

          • Dave P.
            May 13, 2018 at 21:59

            Joe – The article by Tom Luongo is interesting. I don’t understand fully the mechanics of international finance, currencies and all that. However, I got the gist of it. Watching the speeches/talks of Putin at Valdai Discussion Club Forum and other places, he seems to be quite a well read person, with the real understanding of history and how the World works. That may explain his reactions to all these provocations in ME – he is there for the long run.

    • Dave P.
      May 13, 2018 at 01:13

      “Besides that, Trump every time I see him around any Europeans he treats his allied leaders like vassals, and makes sure he appears to be more superior of them when he’s around his European counterparts. Trump gives a renewed meaning to the word ‘poodle’.”

      Good posts, Joe. Sure, Macron was acting like a poodle too, when he visited the White House recently. I read that he got some shellacking back at home for behaving like that.

      The article by Sergio Weigel is interesting. I hope he is right. I have not read that Brookings ‘Which Path to Persia’; will be interesting to read it.

    • john wilson
      May 13, 2018 at 05:16

      Jo, calling European leaders ‘poodles’ doesn’t give them credit. I would have thought skunks ravaged by syphilis would have been a more apt description.

      • Joe Tedesky
        May 13, 2018 at 07:16

        I’ll aim lower next time. Very funny.

        • Piotr Berman
          May 14, 2018 at 07:45

          In America, skunk is a very independent and dignified animal. A sickly looking skunk will stand in the middle of a forest road, watch your car stopping and leisurely walk away. Suburban skunks do not pay attention to humans, and they do not stink — unless they choose to.

          Thus I compared Macron to a hyperactive terrier that follows the master, if less diligently than a more cool blooded poodle.

  47. norecovery
    May 12, 2018 at 17:11

    Isn’t it interesting how this “decision” came directly following Iran’s declaration that energy transactions would henceforth be conducted in Euros?

  48. michael
    May 12, 2018 at 17:03

    The sad thing is that the abandoning of the Iran nuclear plan is not really Trump going-it-alone, but rather is more representative of the desires of the US Congress, Intelligence agencies and the neolib/ neocon think tanks in bed with Saudi Arabia and Israel, than is the unloved multinational deal with Iran under Kerry and Obama. The EU might scapegoat Trump, but would find that the animosity and distrust of Iran by the Saudis and Israelis and their supporting powerful Americans, goes much deeper than Trump, who is being steered in line unwittingly with neolib/ neocon agendas. The MIC needs more business.

    • Kiwiantz
      May 12, 2018 at 17:42

      He’s not doing this stuff “unwittingly ” but in full compliance from his Deepstate master’s? I suspect Trump was taken out the back of either the CIA or FBI building, at the start of taking office & shown the Zapruder film of Kennedy having his head blasted apart, as a warning to him that the last POTUS who wanted to rein in their power & sabotage their Global objective was assassinated? Trumps been told, in no uncertain terms, that this would be his fate if he didn’t keep going the status quo of maintaining the US petrodollar tyranny & Empire hegemony? Trumps a marinet puppet hanging by the strings by a Deepstate puppeteer!

      • john wilson
        May 13, 2018 at 05:22

        You got that right, Kiwiantz, as was Obama before him. Trump has the head of a gargoyle and the brain of a louse, but like most dumb creatures, he has an inbuilt survival instinct so he does as he’s told.

    • Mild - Facetious
      May 12, 2018 at 20:18

      Ismael and Issac
      Alive ! In the age of

      Artificial Intelligence
      Al Gore rhythms

      As patterns of
      Discordant notes

      Whenever 1/2 Brothers
      Have Different Mothers.

  49. Ishkabibble
    May 12, 2018 at 16:49

    Never, ever underestimate the power of false flag operations. I predict that suddenly “Iran” is going to, reportedly, start doing things that make it impossible for the US’s vassals states to continue their support of the JCPOA.

    As usual, Israel or Saudi Arabia will claim that Iran has done something dastardly and all the western MSM will report their false claims as fact, just as they dutifully did recently about Salisbury, Douma and, even more recently, near the Golan.

    In other words, the demonization of Iran is going to be stepped up to a level where “something must be done!” Trump’s recent statement was one lie after another, but who other than the alternaive media called him out on them? A short time after the lies and false flag operations shift into hyperdrive, the vassals will be imposing “sanctions” like never before and if Iran inevitably continues to behave badly and “diplomacy” inevitably proves futile, which it must, then the “international community” will have absolutely no other option than to attack Iran.

    • Garrett Connelly
      May 12, 2018 at 18:38

      But now the entire world knows the story. It was mysterious back in the 1960’s, when three million Vietnamese were wiped out to keep them from becoming communist dominos.

      Propaganda in the Greenfield Recorder, today, asked if there has ever been a time when Israel and Iran were friends,

      “Yes!” The paper answers. “When the Shaw was in charge.” Not a word about how the shaw got there.

      • Bob In Portland
        May 13, 2018 at 14:02

        They also did arms deals with each other on behalf of the US. And the US brought the Iranians a cake.

    • Known Unknown
      May 13, 2018 at 02:31

      We laypeople here in Prolestadt do not have enough information to reliably determine whether an event was a false flag (or not). That doesn’t stop delusional people from thinking they can “prove” this or that incident was staged…and without ever leaving their armchair!

      Speculating at length about false flags is a waste of time and energy.

      • Skip Scott
        May 13, 2018 at 07:15

        “PAY NO ATTENTION TO THE MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN!” It is a waste of time and energy!

        Is that you, Donald?

      • Bob In Portland
        May 13, 2018 at 14:04

        “Don’t investigate crimes unless the murderer is standing in front of you with a smoking gun and a signed confession.”

        Okay. How are the NBA finals going?

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