VIPS MEMO: The French Road to Nuclear War

France could be leading the American people down a path toward a nuclear conflict decidedly not in the interests of the American people – or of humanity itself, VIPS warns President Joe Biden.

U.S. President Joe Biden preparing to disembark Marine One, July 2021. (White House, Adam Schultz)

March 24, 2024


FROM: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity

SUBJECT: On the Brink of Nuclear War

Mr. President:

France is reportedly preparing to dispatch a force of some 2,000 troops — roughly a reinforced brigade built around an armored battalion and two mechanized battalions, with supporting logistical, engineering, and artillery troops attached — into Ukraine sometime in the not-so-distant future.

This force is purely symbolic, inasmuch as it would have zero survivability in a modern high-intensity conflict of the scope and scale of what is transpiring in Ukraine today. It would not be deployed directly in a conflict zone, but would serve either as

(1) a screening force/tripwire to stop Russia’s advance; or

(2) a replacement force deployed to a non-active zone to free up Ukrainian soldiers for combat duty. The French Brigade reportedly will be supplemented by smaller units from the Baltic states.

This would be introducing combat troops of a NATO country into a theater of war, making them “lawful targets” under the Law of War.

Such units would apparently lack a NATO mandate. In Russia’s view, however, this may be a distinction without a difference. France appears to be betting – naively – that its membership in NATO would prevent Russia from attacking French troops. Rather, it is highly likely that Russia would attack any French/Baltic contingent in Ukraine and quickly destroy/degrade its combat viability.

In that case, French President Macron may calculate that, after Russian attacks on the troops of NATO members – NATO mandate or not – he could invoke Article 5 of the NATO Charter and get the NATO alliance to intervene. Such intervention would likely take the form of aircraft operating from NATO nations – and perhaps include interdiction missions against tactical targets inside Russia. 

On Precipice of Nuclear War?

Doctrinally, and by legal right, Russia’s response would be to launch retaliatory strikes also against targets in NATO countries. If NATO then attacks strategic targets inside Russia, at that point Russia’s nuclear doctrine takes over, and NATO decision-making centers would be hit with nuclear weapons.

We do not believe Russia will initiate a nuclear attack against the U.S., but rather would leave it up to the United States to decide if it wants to risk destruction by preparing to launch a nuclear strike on Russia. That said, Russian strategic forces have improved to the point that, in some areas – hypersonic missiles, for example – its capability surpasses that of the U.S. and NATO.

In other words, the Russian temptation to strike first may be a bit stronger than during past crises, and we are somewhat less confident that Russia would want to “go second”.

Another disquieting factor is that the Russians are likely to believe that Macron’s folly has the tacit approval of some key U.S. and other Western officials, who seem desperate to find some way to alter the trajectory of the war in Ukraine – the more so, as elections draw near.

What Needs to Be Done

Europe needs to understand that France is leading it down a path of inevitable self-destruction.

The American people need to understand that Europe is leading them to the cusp of nuclear annihilation.

Since Russian leaders may suspect that Macron is working hand in glove with Washington, the U.S. needs to make its position publicly and unambiguously clear.

And if France and the Baltics insist on sending troops into Ukraine, it must also be made clear that such action has no NATO mandate; that Article 5 will not be triggered by any Russian retaliation; and that the U.S. nuclear arsenal, including those nuclear weapons that are part of the NATO deterrent force, will not be employed as a result of any Russian military action against French or Baltic troops.

Void of such clarity, France would be leading the American people down a path toward a nuclear conflict decidedly not in the interests of the American people – or of humanity itself.



  • William Binney, former Technical Director, World Geopolitical & Military Analysis, NSA; co-founder, SIGINT Automation Research Center (ret.)
  • Richard Black, former Virginia State Senator; Colonel, USA (ret.); Former Chief, Criminal Law Division, Judge Advocate General (associate VIPS)
  • Marshall Carter-Tripp, Foreign Service Officer (ret) and former Office Director in the State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research
  • Bogdan Dzakovic, former Team Leader of Federal Air Marshals and Red Team, FAA Security, (ret.) (associate VIPS)
  • Graham E. Fuller, Vice-Chair, National Intelligence Council (ret.)
  • Philip Giraldi, C.I.A., Operations Officer (ret.)
  • Matthew Hoh, former Capt., USMC, Iraq and Foreign Service Officer, Afghanistan (associate VIPS)
  • James George Jatras, former U.S. diplomat and former foreign policy adviser to Senate leadership (Associate VIPS)
  • Larry C. Johnson, former C.I.A. and State Department Counter Terrorism officer
  • John Kiriakou, former C.I.A. Counterterrorism Officer and former senior investigator, Senate Foreign Relations Committee
  • Karen Kwiatkowski, former Lt. Col., U.S. Air Force (ret.), at Office of Secretary of Defense watching the manufacture of lies on Iraq, 2001-2003
  • Douglas Macgregor, Colonel, USA (ret.) (associate VIPS)
  • Ray McGovern, former U.S. Army infantry/intelligence officer & C.I.A. analyst; C.I.A. Presidential briefer (ret.)
  • Elizabeth Murray, former Deputy National Intelligence Officer for the Near East, National Intelligence Council & C.I.A. political analyst (ret.)
  • Todd E. Pierce, MAJ, U.S. Army Judge Advocate (ret.)
  • Pedro Israel Orta, former C.I.A. and Intelligence Community (Inspector General) officer
  • Scott Ritter, former MAJ, USMC; former U.N. Weapons Inspector, Iraq
  • Coleen Rowley, FBI Special Agent and former Minneapolis Division Legal Counsel (ret.)
  • Lawrence Wilkerson, Colonel USA, ret.), Distinguished Visiting Professor, College of William and Mary (associate VIPS)
  • Sarah G. Wilton, CDR, USNR, (ret.); Defense Intelligence Agency (ret.)
  • Kirk Wiebe, former Senior Analyst, SIGINT Automation Research Center, NSA
  • Robert Wing, former Foreign Service Officer (associate VIPS)
  • Ann Wright, retired U.S. Army reserve colonel and former U.S. diplomat who resigned in 2003 in opposition to the Iraq War

Background: Earlier VIPS Memos for President Biden on Ukraine

May 1, 2022

FROM: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)
SUBJECT: Nuclear Weapons Cannot Be Un-invented, Thus …

“The growing possibility that nuclear weapons might be used, as hostilities in Ukraine continue to escalate, merits your full attention.” 


Sept. 5, 2022

SUBJECT: Ukraine Decision Time & Secretary of Defense

“If Austin tells you Kyiv is beating back the Russians, kick the tires”


Jan. 26, 2023

SUBJECT: Leopards to Ukraine: Decisions in an Intelligence Vacuum

“None of the newly promised weaponry will stop Russia from defeating what’s left of the Ukrainian army. If you have been told otherwise, replace your intelligence and military advisers with competent professionals – the sooner the better.”

“There is a large conceptual – and exceptionally dangerous – disconnect. Simply stated, it is not possible to “win the war against Russia” AND avoid WWIII. It is downright scary that Defense Secretary Austin may think it possible. In any case, the Kremlin has to assume he thinks so. It is a very dangerous delusion.”


January 25, 2024



SUBJECT: Throwing Good Money After Bad

“On Jan. 26, 2023, we reminded you that National Intelligence Director Avril Haines had said Russia was using up ammunition extraordinarily quickly and could not indigenously produce what it was expending.”

“On July 13, you said Putin “has already lost the war”. You may have gotten that from C.I.A. Director William Burns who, a week before, wrote an op-ed in The Washington Post saying: “Putin’s war has already been a strategic failure for Russia – its military weaknesses laid bare.” Both statements are incorrect. Nor is the war a “stalemate”, as Jake Sullivan has claimed more recently.”

20 comments for “VIPS MEMO: The French Road to Nuclear War

  1. Colin
    March 26, 2024 at 17:06

    My hunch is that the fairly sudden tranche of French and Western allied natterings of deploying French/NATO troops to Ukraine is at least a decided political tack to a stratagem of implicitly acculturating a desired eventual US goal absent Ukrainian inability to ultimately and fully expel Russia from its Novorossiya renaissance: a sort of east-west, NATO-Russia, partitioning of Ukraine. I do not, however, believe the Russians could be unaware of such a scenario, as Putin, himself, if I recall, has spoken specifically of preempting any NATO attempt at piecemealing Ukraine into NATO territory thru partitioning, in keeping with Russian bottomline assessment that Ukrainian neutrality is of existential security for Russia. So, any attempt at outright deployment of such troops will run a very risk of Russian attack and escalation. Perhaps the West with these natterings is in effect taking up Putin on his notional “cordon sanitaire” which would effectively function as the partition.

  2. LeoSun
    March 26, 2024 at 16:47

    IF, only, the USG’s, POTUS, Biden or Harris, read aloud, to the Nation, to the World, “ANY” one of the MANY of the Veterans’ Intelligence Professionals [FOR] Sanity (VIPS) Memorandum would be a f/phenomenal public service!!!

    “Imagine,” POTUS, Biden or Harris, reading ALOUD the VIPS’ Memorandum w/the eloquence, grace, intelligence, the wholly f/truth; w/the inflections of the perfections articulated, therein! At the f/least, POTUS oughta acknowledge receipt of & express regret his Handlers didn’t employ the VIPS to be POTUS’ Board of Executives, i.e., “their” peacemakers, TruthSeekers, TruthTellers. Not for nothing, but, “many people, believe POTUS “signifies the remarkably low intellectual level of the individuals running the U.S.G.” The “recent” receipt, depicted by “the Artist,” Mr. Fish, w/o a doubt, “paints the times,” i.e., an American Eagle, wearing his Nation’s uniform, sets himself a blaze, in public, “in front of the Israeli embassy in Washington, D.C.” The WH’s public service announcement (PSA) issued, on behalf of the Commander-in-Chief, IS, “he’s aware & thoughts are w/the family.”

    ….. 3.5.24, “Aaron Bushnell’s Divine Violence,” Chris Hedges/Mr.Fish hxxps://

    Imo, the $tate of the Union is beyond f/shameful. It’s downright f/embarrassing. It’s f.u.b.a.r. POTUS doesn’t read. Imo, “they,” POTUS, are NOT avid readers. Hence, their hours spent rehearsing, stumbling, fumbling, bumbling, slurring, going for that presidential “look;” & they face plant. The obvious, imo, POTUS’ comprehension is, 1) @ a 2nd grade level; 2) Gone! 3) White-Washed. Sugar-Coated. Masked. Hence, the WH celebrates POTUS’ “firsts!” And, everything’s a first! POTUS reads words. “They” repeat the lines posted on a Jumbo-Tron. It’s straight-up “larping,” ‘Live Action Role Playing.’

    IMO, ya want to “ALERT,” POTUS? Do it w/Signage, People, & Chanting. Those actions, get their attention; albeit, they rocket POTUS into a frenzy. A freeze. A f/nightmare!

    “Imagine,” POTUS seeing this, “READ This MEMO: “Hey, Joey. Hey, Comma La, It’s Over!!! Buh-bye. Good f/riddance.”

    “On Precipice of Nuclear War?” 3.25.24, “The French Road to Nuclear War,” VIPS

    2.7.22, Macron Meets w/Putin, “As the United States moves forces to Eastern Europe to support its NATO allies and Russia deploys more troops onto Ukraine’s border, Macron visited his counterpart, President Vladimir Putin, in Moscow on Monday to demand a de-escalation to the crisis, before traveling to Kyiv.

    The two men appeared at a press conference after spending more than five hours locked in head-to-head talks.”

    …..…. “Ask your readers, do you want war w/Russia?!?” Because that’s what will happen if Ukraine, which has made a pledge to take back Crimea by force, joins NATO…you will fight a war against Russia..”. Russia is one of the world’s leading atomic powers. There would be [NO] no victors; Macron does not desire such an outcome.” Vladimir Putin, 2.7.22

    “Again, Russia has said, from 2008, incorporation of NATO into that alliance is a red line. How many times do we need to repeat ourselves?” Vladimir Putin

    “Many people,” believe Vladimir Putin pegged Biden-Harris as an unreconstructed warmongering & longtime advocates of NATO expansion; &, truly fears [their] ability to act on [their] madness. [Mutually Agreed Destruction NESS].

    ……. “Can we roll the tape back, for a sec, “Did Biden say, I’m convinced Putin will invade;” OR, “I’ve convinced Putin, to invade?” Jeffrey St. Claire

    How about, “Veterans Intelligence Professionals for Sanity,” FOR President, 2024…”Rise Up! Reclaim “Sanity” & Peace.”

    TY, VIPS, CN, et., “Keep It Lit!” Ciao

    …p.s., Last night, 3.25.24, “John Kiriakou was Jesse Waters guest, Primetime Series, The JFK Series, on Fox. The most watched cable network news org, ever! And, John Kiriakou, former CIA, Whistleblower, absolutely, brilliant breaking down “the hook,” i.e., The hook brings you back On that you can rely.” hxxps://

  3. jamie
    March 26, 2024 at 14:43

    I don’t know if I would worry about France, actually France greater involvement, means US can breathe and focus on other plans as she has found new cannon fodders to send to Ukrain. Russia knew French military were present in Ukraine. 60 were hypothetically killed all at once by the Russians; France of course, denied, but a list of French name were issued by the Russians. I don’t think Macron might want to get revenge with 2000 soldiers, to have to explain the population why 1000 came back in a body bag. To me Macron knows the war is almost over and is showing to the frustrated Ukrainians that he would have done much more, that he would have sacrificed his soldiers (eventually).
    What really worries me is CIA, and the terrorist attack in Moscow; it is already known that Washington has used ISIS against Syrian government before it got out of hand; Prof. Tim Anderson from Global research explained how. ISIS (Chechen branch) was known to be in Ukraine since at least 2015 (NYT); Someone to the European Parliament raised a question in 2015, if ISIS in Ukraine would not be a threat to Europe.
    The timing is interesting, the election in Russia, I think ISIS never cared about political timing (did it?), then not too long ago another major attack happened in Iran with almost 100 dead. I wonder if CIA has once again, through third parties, used such brutal group to destabilize both countries with the motto, “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”
    Scott Ritter wrote an interesting piece “SCOTT RITTER: The CIA’s Secret War — Using Russian Fascists to Fight Russia” that might give a hint. [hxxps://]
    If Russia discovers CIA involvement in such terrorist attack; then yes, I think nuclear first strike would be a real option for the Russians, especially now that they have the upper hand on missile capability.
    If Russia want to win the war against the west, They know US is the first country to be targeted, the rest will fall into piece

  4. DW Bartoo
    March 26, 2024 at 10:25

    I do wonder if people in the U$, actually realize that, if the insanity of French troops in Ukraine goes any further, then all of humanity is on an escalation to nuclear confrontation?

    This memo is a wake up notification, not just to Biden and all of NATO, but to all human beings and, most especially, to those human beings living in the Homeyland.

    We must all talk seriously about the reality which confronts us.

    “Normal” is finished.

    Going about life as if nothing is going in the world that requires our concentrated and undivided attention.

    People MUST find the conscious awareness to dare to acknowledge the truth of this moment.

    The end of existence ought be important enough to command everyone’s attention.

    We MUST talk about reality.

    We must speak WITH each other and then insist, as we have never insisted before that nuclear confrontation, is not something is NOT something to be left to “leaders”, anywhere at any time.

    Congress should be debating this, yet their allegiance is NOT to the people, but to their own careers and prospects.

    Biden’s primary concern is the election, not the people, whether here or in

    Human beings must find the courage to demand and insist that there is no honest reason for the destruction of life on this planet for ANY political consideration OR mercenary (meaning MONEY) “interest”.

    Let us think, let us talk and reason together.

    Everything is a stake.

    That is what this VIPS memo makes clear.

    How we choose to deal with this is up to us.

    Doing and saying nothing is fatal

  5. Tony
    March 26, 2024 at 09:20

    You can write to President Macron using the

    Write to the President/Elysee website.

    I have done so and I would urge all readers of this website to do the same.

    Thank you.

  6. Jamie Aliperti
    March 25, 2024 at 23:15

    An elaborate game of chicken that Biden’s military and foreign policy advisors — and apparently Macron — insanely think they can win. And if the Ukraine situation doesn’t blow us all up, there’s always Gaza and Taiwan to do the job. And people were saying TRUMP was the bull in the china shop who would get us all killed? Don’t make any long-range plans.

  7. WillD
    March 25, 2024 at 22:53

    “Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity”. The name of this organisation contains 3 words that the US Biden regime doesn’t understand = ‘intelligence’, ‘professional’ and ‘sanity’.

    The utter lack of any of these three attributes in the current US administration considerably heightens the risk that the US will fail to act to prevent such a terrifying scenario, and will continue to stumble along its path to hell!

    The human race will not survive much longer if it continues to spawn such evil leaders, and fails to stop their destructive behaviour.

  8. James White
    March 25, 2024 at 18:45

    Since this war began, it has been the primary objective of the failed comedian Zelensky to drag NATO into it. Ukraine never had a chance to beat Russia in a shooting war but Victoria Nuland and Boris Johnson must have promised that NATO would eventually send in troops or at least offer a no-fly zone.
    So far, feeble Joe Biden has limited the U.S. response to ‘tough’ talk. Biden frequently threatens Russia that it better not think of entering any NATO country. A Red Line that Putin has repeatedly pointed out that he has no interest in crossing. But it gives Biden a chance to bluff and act tough when the entire world can see how weak and pathetic he truly is.
    Still, Zelensky is obsessed, relentless and increasingly desperate to drag some doofus NATO country into his war. All of the European heads of state appear weak and under pressure at home as the Ukraine war is being lost each day.
    After Macron was photographed running away as fast as he could from the protesting French farmers, he badly needed a stunning diversion to change the narrative. So he cooked up this idea of sending French troops to Ukraine.
    Initially, the canard that France was ready to march into Ukraine, while dragging NATO along for the ride was roundly rejected by the other NATO countries. But as Zelensky is counting on, there will always eventually be some NATO leader who, in a moment of weakness will make noise about joining the battle in Ukraine.
    French mercenaries have already been fighting in Ukraine. Russia bombed a cluster of them and some may have been French soldiers posing as mercenaries. British and U.S. ‘advisors’ have been in Ukraine since the start of the war. The CIA readily admits it has operated a number of posts inside of Ukraine long before the war started.
    Fortunately, the weakling Biden prefers doing business in an underhanded way. Biden is a conman who has always escaped scrutiny by hiding out to avoid actual confrontation. Asking Congress for war authorization would further expose Biden’s weakness if they said ‘no.’ It is likely that Biden will continue to hide out and play games behind the scenes rather than confront Russia directly.
    Every head of state in Europe is under pressure for their boosterism of the failed war in Ukraine. Increasingly desperate times could suddenly lead to a tactical error that grants Zelensky the object of his quixotic quest. It would be utter madness but so is everything NATO has done in Ukraine for the past 10 or more years. The tension will only grow between now and November.

  9. Susan Siens
    March 25, 2024 at 17:09

    We are a society on the edge of complete collapse and we are DOING NOTHING to stop that collapse, we are hastening it. I can’t believe the AI stooges in government will be moved by any sane reasoning.

  10. Humwawa
    March 25, 2024 at 16:56

    If the Biden admin is quiet about Macron, it is because Macron does exactly what Biden wants him to do.

    The US has deliberately provoked the Ukraine war in order to plunge Europe into another war with Russia. The US always intended to withdraw from Ukraine and drop the problem in the lap of the Europeans. All the drama about the 61 billion is just cinema.

    Europe is in the clutches of the Transatlantic elite who won’t let go before they haven’t destroyed the old continent.

    Americans have a deep-seated hatred of Europe. They hate Europe’s social system and want to impose their brand of neo-liberal dogma so that the US oligarchy can more easily exploit Europe.

  11. Odysseus
    March 25, 2024 at 16:53

    I am terrified. I have worked with people from France, ENA for example who are the French equivalent of high fliers for administration and industry and I was always angry with them for being unable or unwilling to understand reality and I am terrified that such minds are advising Macron about France’s possible future if French troops are sent to Ukraine for ANY reason or pretence. This is not a careful escalation this is complete loss of control and sanity. And he’s President! There is something wrong with the political system that produces our current world leaders and the administrations enabling the state to operate in a way that risks annihilation of France and the rest of the human species. The lucky will die instantly in a flash, followed by a large city levelling shock wave and by a heat wave raising temperatures to metal evaporating temperatures. The changes on the biosphere caused by the explosions and radiation induced cancers will kill any survivors. The approximately 450 commercial sized nuclear reactors will melt down creating 500 Chernobyls but many times worse as there will be no human intervention no dome to contain the spread of poisons no medical services no communications no civilisation, nowhere to go nothing to do except survive a bit longer. There will be no survivors to rebuild civilisation and gradually replace the human construct which was destroyed.
    Please stop this madness. Please explain to the billionaires buying shelters that their lives will be short and their deaths horrible. There are no 1st class passengers on this Titanic, just people locked in. Billionaires think themselves billionaires after a war. It is as hilarious. The UK Gov had and probably still has plans to govern after a nuclear war. Govern what?
    Even if bluffing Macron is mad and he’s the decision maker. The French have a tradition of not catching up with military reality before it is too late. And come to think of it the Russians explained it to them with bright colours a couple of times. I read somewhere that they are still bitter about Napoleon’s misadventure.

  12. robert e williamson jr
    March 25, 2024 at 16:23

    Winston Churchill once declared, “You can always count on the Americans to do the right thing, after they have tried everything else.”

    Or words to the same effect.

    Like I have said from the very beginning of the Ukrainian Fiasco we now have on our hands, a war of choice caused by the U.S. over playing it’s NATO cards by placing missiles along the Ukrainian border.

    Some idiots thought it would be a great idea to force Putin into corner with no way out.

    It seems pretty obvious to me at this point the entire mess should have been handled very differently.

    HEY JOE tell the French to cut the bullshit and you can start by getting out of this self dug hole. Clearly there will be no winners here only LOSERS!

    Much thanks to those who signed onto this Memo and CN for covering the story!

  13. John Z
    March 25, 2024 at 14:15

    There are apparently no lengths the international industrial-military complex will not go to for the sake of unbelievable death, destruction, suffering and the annihilation of all living and breathing beings. Dwight Eisenhower was so right. Who in power will have the balls to stand up and say “Enough!!”?

  14. bill haymes
    March 25, 2024 at 13:43

    a whole group of retired French generals have come out against the fool Macron.French soldiers may die in their 100s even if not at front lines and should be left 100% isolated .The Russian gloves are now off.Macron has heightened the dangers of escalation;the French will know this if IF reliably informed by French media.

    • Mark J Oetting
      March 26, 2024 at 05:25

      In a recent poll 68-pct of the French public oppose this plan

  15. Randal Marlin
    March 25, 2024 at 11:57

    As I’ve commented many times, the force of Article 5 of the NATO Charter is limited by Article 7:
    “Article 7. This Treaty does not affect, and shall not be interpreted as affecting in any way the rights and obligations under the Charter of the Parties which are members of the United Nations, or the primary responsibility of the Security Council for the maintenance of international peace and security.”
    Article 39 of the UN Charter states: “The Security Council shall determine the existence of any threat to the peace, breach of the peace, or act of aggression and shall make recommendations, or decide what measures shall be taken in accordance with Articles 41 and 42, to maintain or restore international peace and security.”
    Each member of NATO would have to weigh whether, before coming to the aid of another NATO member under attack, the attack was provoked by that member.
    If there is any doubt about aggressive provocation by the NATO member under attack, the Security Council opinion should be sought.

    • Odysseus
      March 25, 2024 at 17:03

      I hope you are guessing well what will happen but given the hysteria and blindness with which we were herded into this during the last 2+ years I am afraid you are too optimistic.

    • Lois Gagnon
      March 25, 2024 at 18:55

      Thanks for pointing that detail out. Very important.

  16. Michael Kritschgau
    March 25, 2024 at 07:58

    I said it before and I say it again: when the establishment successfully entices neighbours against neighbours via non-topics like equality, diversity, trans-movement, political ideology conflicts, climate doom and whatnot (including UFOs) then they can get away Scott-free with anything regarding perpetual wars and conflicts.

    • Susan Siens
      March 25, 2024 at 17:07

      Excellent comment, Michael, and you might like the essay at Brownstone Institute today about Ketanji Brown Jackson’s role in terrifying the public and then vacating the Constitution.

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