Obama’s Syrian ‘Doomsday Machine’

Exclusive: By setting in motion a possibly catastrophic plan to bomb Syria, President Obama has created what amounts to a “doomsday machine” that could detonate if not disarmed by a breakthrough on peace talks. Obama is gambling that Saudi opposition to negotiations can be neutralized first, Robert Parry reports.

By Robert Parry

Even as President Barack Obama lobbies Congress for a limited war resolution against Syria, some members of his national security team are hoping that the international crisis can be used to break the diplomatic impasse that has blocked Syrian peace talks, particularly by forcing the hand of Saudi Arabia.

This view holds that Saudi Arabia and particularly its intelligence chief, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, have emerged as the chief obstacles to a cease-fire and peace talks. Bandar, the well-connected former ambassador to the United States, is seen as the principal backer of the most radical Islamist fighters seeking to oust the Syrian government and unwilling to join negotiations. (Remember that Bandar has admitted meeting al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden before the 9/11 attacks — and after 9/11, he arranged the quick departure of bin Laden family members from the United States.)

Prince Bandar bin Sultan, former Saudi ambassador to the United States and now head of Saudi intelligence.

So, the challenge has been how to pressure Bandar and the extravagantly wealthy Saudis into cooperation with a strategy of cutting off the weapons and money to these extreme jihadists, getting rebel negotiators to Geneva, and forging a power-sharing arrangement between the more moderate rebels and the Syrian government.

You might not know it from reading the mainstream U.S. press, but Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has repeatedly agreed to participate in proposed Geneva peace talks and to consider a new governing structure. It is the U.S.-backed opposition that has consistently refused to attend, laying down a series of preconditions.

Yet, the preferred narrative of the U.S. press has been that the Obama administration must ratchet up the military pressure on Assad to force him to the bargaining table, a storyline that fits with the beloved image of the U.S. side in any dispute as the peacemakers and the other side as the warmongers.

For instance, New York Times columnist Nicholas D. Kristof has become the latest “liberal war hawk” to urge Obama to bomb Syrian government targets and thus reverse the decline of the rebels’ military fortunes. On Thursday, Kristof wrote that the Assad regime has “lately had the upper hand in fighting, and airstrikes might make it more willing to negotiate toward a peace deal to end the war.”

However, Kristof and other journalists who promote this myth are misleading the American people, much as many of their colleagues did a decade ago on invading Iraq. In Syria, the reality is that the United States has been unable to get the opposition to the bargaining table, after the Russians succeeded in persuading Assad to send government negotiators.

The rebel leaders have offered a host of excuses why peace talks can’t start now: they want the U.S. government to give them sophisticated weapons first; they want all Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon to withdraw; they want to be in a winning position before talks begin; they want Assad to agree to resign as a precondition of talks.

In other words, the fractious rebels, whose most effective fighters are allied with al-Qaeda, don’t want peace talks; they’d rather wait for the United States and other outside powers to be drawn into the civil war and ensure Assad’s ouster.

However, such an outcome also could make Syria the new hotbed for terrorism in the Middle East and open the door to genocide against Syria’s Alawite minority, adherents to a branch of Shia Islam who include the Assad family. Some Syrian Christians, allied with Assad, also fear violent reprisals if the Sunni-dominated rebels prevail, a particularly frightening thought for ethnic Armenians whose ancestors fled the Turkish genocide a century ago.

The real possibility of rebel-inflicted atrocities was underscored Thursday by the release of a video showing Syrian rebels executing captured Syrian soldiers, amid verbal threats to exterminate the Alawites. Russian President Vladimir Putin also has cited a video of a rebel commander eating the internal organs of a slain government soldier.

Wasting a Crisis

Though many of Obama’s “tough guy/gal” advisers still seem eager to launch missiles against Syrian government targets to punish Assad for an alleged poison gas attack on Aug. 21, at least a few aides still hope that the impending attack can be averted and the international urgency over the crisis can be turned instead toward promoting a peaceful settlement of the conflict.

Such a move would represent a geopolitical version of former White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel’s adage, “never let a serious crisis go to waste.” I’m told that Obama has recently sought out advisers beyond his inner circle regarding how this maneuver might be pulled off, after he found himself boxed in by his clumsy rhetoric about “red lines” and inattention to the worsening Syrian crisis earlier this year.

Despite the seemingly chilly contacts between Obama and Putin at the G-20 summit in St. Petersburg, the two leaders are said to be acting in greater concert on this crisis than the mainstream U.S. press understands. U.S.-Russian cooperation is considered crucial to push aside the many obstacles to a negotiated outcome for Syria’s civil war.

The greatest difficulty in achieving a breakthrough on peace has been how to dislodge the obstructions of Saudi Arabia and Israel to Syrian negotiations. The Saudis and the Israelis, who have developed a de facto alliance on a range of regional issues from Egypt to Iran, see advantages in continuing the conflict in Syria.

While Saudi Arabia may dream of an outright rebel victory and a Sunni-ruled Syrian state – breaking the current “Shiite crescent” from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Hezbollah enclaves in Lebanon – the Israelis seem to prefer having Syria continue bleeding without a clear-cut victor.

As the New York Times reported Friday, “Mr. Obama’s limited strike proposal has one crucial foreign ally: Israel.” In the Israeli view, getting the U.S. military to batter Assad’s forces would also put Iran on the defensive and might speed the day of an American attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Plus, a weakened Syria would not only mean that Iran is forced to divert more resources to saving Assad but that Lebanon’s pro-Assad Hezbollah also would be more distracted and Palestine’s Hamas more isolated. Hamas has sided with Sunni rebels fighting Assad and thus has estranged its former allies: Syria, Iran and Hezbollah.

The odd-couple alliance of Israel and Saudi Arabia also has teamed up in support of Egypt’s military coup against the elected Muslim Brotherhood government of Mohamed Morsi. The Saudis have poured in billions of dollars to prop up Egypt’s economy as the Israelis have lobbied Washington to prevent a cutoff of U.S. military aid to Egypt.

The Muslim Brotherhood is a Sunni movement, but it is too populist for the taste of the Saudi monarchists. The Saudi princes fear the spread of democracy in the region and far prefer an authoritarian regime in Egypt. Meanwhile, Israel benefits by having the Egyptian military again seal off the border with Hamas-ruled Gaza. All the better for Israel to dictate peace terms to a weakened Palestinian movement.

Doomsday Threat

So, President Obama’s chances of using the prospect of a destabilizing U.S. military strike against Syria to break through the logjam of geopolitical obstacles to peace may seem slim. The strategy appears even to be a distinctly minority position within the Obama administration, although Obama is seen as an advocate.

To pull it off, however, Obama must find a way to get Bandar and the Saudis to desist in their financial and military support of the radical Sunni jihadists in Syria, while convincing the Israelis to keep their political clout in Washington on the sidelines. Some thought has even been given to enlisting former President George W. Bush, a close friend of Bandar, to act as an intermediary.

Yet, while Obama pressures the Saudis behind the scenes, he must – for domestic political reasons – keep up the drumbeat that the real problem is with the Assad government. Thus, he continues to lay blame on Assad for the apparent poison gas attack of Aug. 21, despite continuing doubts about the U.S. intelligence case.

The incident in the Damascus suburb of Ghouta occurred more than two weeks ago, but the Obama administration has still not presented any verifiable evidence to the American public that would prove Assad’s forces are to blame. All the details have been kept classified, shared only with members of Congress who are famously inept at evaluating such allegations.

And, since the U.S. government was quick in fingering Assad for blame, it has been unwilling to consider other evidence that seems to point to the rebels as being at fault for release of the chemical weapons on Aug. 21.

For instance, a report by MintPress News – based on interviews with people in Damascus and Ghouta – presented evidence that “the U.S. and its allies may be targeting the wrong culprit. … [F]rom numerous interviews with doctors, Ghouta residents, rebel fighters and their families, … many believe that certain rebels received chemical weapons via the Saudi intelligence chief, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, and were responsible for carrying out the … gas attack.”

The article also cites comments by rebel-connected Ghouta residents indicating that the release of the poison gas may have resulted from a conventional artillery strike by government forces accidentally hitting a rebel storage site for chemical weapons or from careless rebel handling of the dangerous material.

Even the Obama administration’s white paper, citing U.S. intelligence assessments that blamed the Syrian government for the Aug. 21 attack, danced around the question of whether Syrian rebels have chemical weapons in their arsenal.

“We assess that the scenario in which the opposition executed the attack on August 21 is highly unlikely,” the white paper said. “Our intelligence sources in the Damascus area did not detect any indications in the days prior to the attack that opposition affiliates were planning to use chemical weapons.”

Yet, why would the U.S. intelligence agencies employ such phrasing discounting the likelihood of a rebel attack if they could simply assert that the rebel forces have no chemical weapons, period? The deep involvement of Saudi intelligence in Syria makes the prospect of the rebels possessing chemical weapons not at all far-fetched.

However, that depth of Saudi involvement also makes the task of shutting down Bandar’s operation all the more difficult. Indeed, Obama may have few levers to use against Bandar, other than arguments that a U.S. military intervention in Syria could spin out of control, leading to disruptions of oil supplies and a global financial crisis. Given the vast stock portfolios of the Saudi royals, they could suffer heavy losses as they did during the Wall Street meltdown of 2008.

In that sense, what Obama has created in his timetable for bombing Syria is a kind of “doomsday machine,” a device that can cause severe damage to the geopolitical and economic stability of the world if it is not disarmed in time. Assuming that Obama gets congressional approval to start the machine ticking, the “doomsday” moment could come in the next few weeks.

That is, unless the Saudis and Bandar can be persuaded that their broader interests exceed any sectarian lust to inflict more pain on Iran and its allies in Syria.

Investigative reporter Robert Parry broke many of the Iran-Contra stories for The Associated Press and Newsweek in the 1980s. You can buy his new book, America’s Stolen Narrative, either in print here or as an e-book (from Amazon and barnesandnoble.com). For a limited time, you also can order Robert Parry’s trilogy on the Bush Family and its connections to various right-wing operatives for only $34. The trilogy includes America’s Stolen Narrative. For details on this offer, click here.

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19 comments on “Obama’s Syrian ‘Doomsday Machine’

  1. Mark Bruzonsky on said:

    Wrong! First of all the Saudis are running very scared and Bandar has fully committed them — Obama has no way of forcing them to back off, just the opposite in fact it is they playing him!

    Second it is primarily the Israelis who have boxed Obama in about Syria because this has always been about Iran. They have no intention of “negotiations”.

    How Bob can you possibly overlook and downplay such realities!

    And as I wrote a few days ago now (mer.us/b):

    “Obama is seriously boxed in and now in the most dangerous moments of his Presidency. He has been cornered by Bibi Netanyahu and by Bandar bin Sultan — two long-time operatives far more experienced as well as far more ruthless. brutal. and so far determined. than he — as well as by the American Neo-cons.”

    Mark Bruzonsky
    MiddleEast.Org

  2. incontinent reader on said:

    Thanks for another fine article. For the life of me, I cannot understand or accept that we need to threaten a crisis in order to be able to obtain a ceasefire and/or bring the warring parties to the negotiating table. Furthermore, when someone like Kristof comes out with “NYTimes-speak”, it is especially harmful to the discourse. With all of the resources at his disposal he should know better, and with so many people on the liberal left he can sway because they believe in his good faith and bona fides as an economist, he should speak more responsibly.

    If anything, it is the U.S. that is being disingenuous, since it authored this war and has been its principal actor behind the scenes, and because Saudi Arabia has been a complicit proxy in this and many other of our wars. Does anyone think that if the U.S. ordered the Saudis to back off and reverse direction, they would not do so, especially if they risked being eviscerated if they refused. It has been reported that the Saudis are paying the mercenaries $100 per head per day-a small fortune for these fellows. So, why not demand that the Saudis cut off the funds, arms, ammo, and other supplies, and then ferry the mercenaries back to where they came from, so that with all the dough they’ve accumulated those loyal soldiers can make good in their home countries rather than get blown to kingdom come in the Syrian Army’s next search and destroy operation. All of this is possible if the U.S. is willing. At the very least the President and his overblown Secretary of State should drop any precondition that Assad step down- especially since who should lead Syria should be the decision of the Syrians and no one else- and, as of now, Assad seems to command much greater support among Syrians than any other leader in any other country that I can think of.

    With all of the misfortunes that have occurred, Obama has had many opportunities to hit a foreign policy home run or two- e.g., with a grand bargain between itself and the regional players, and a program of trade and investment that could benefit us and all of them. Unfortunately, his teams at the NSC and State Department are no better than Class C minor league, and his handlers at AIPAC and in Tel Aviv have pushed an agenda geared to destroying Iran and Syria and expanding Israel’s territory and military clout. Obama would do well to dump them and bring in some ‘wise men’ to help extricate him and our country from this mess and move forward with bold plans for peace, before it is too late.

  3. The ‘Saudi royals’ are not even part of the equation. They’re fighting “US-Israel” proxy war against Syria, Iran and Hizbullah. they played a similar proxy war against Saddam Hussein, Somali Islamists and Libyan Qaddafi. The abandoned their own creation Taliban when Dubya Bush put heat on them.

    Both Saudi Arabia and Israel support military coup in Egypt, anti-Assad rebels – and both consider Iran and Hizbullah as their top enemies. Both also hate Shia government of al-Maliki in Baghdad.

    On September 30, 2012, Opinion Maker Org posted an article, entitled ‘The Saudi Royals are Traitor to Islam’. The article claimed that Riyadh would do anything to destroy Iran under Islamic rule.

    “In many ways, the Saudis are just as despicable as the Zionist Israelis in their wanton disregard for the human and humane rights of others in that entire region. With the oil wealth, the Middle East could be booming but certain parties want that wealth and their people get to eat cake, what little of it there is handed down from their not so benevolent Royal leaders,” said the author.

    On August 22, 2013, journalist Mohamed Khodr, in an article accused the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia being the top enemies of Muslims and Islam.

    It’s the Zionist regime which has the final say on America’s next WW III. Some warmongering Zionist Jewish writer at Israeli daily suggested to Barack Obama that since he got the “go ahead” on Syria from AIPAC-controlled Senate – he should ask for similar blessing on Iran.

    http://rehmat1.com/2013/08/28/is-us-losing-saudi-arabia-to-russia/

  4. Dvd Schultz on said:

    …..Bandar has admitted meeting al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden before the 9/11 attacks — and after 9/11……..pressure Bandar and the extravagantly wealthy Saudis into cooperation with a strategy of cutting off the weapons and money to these extreme jihadists…….former President George W. Bush, a close friend of Bandar, to act as an intermediary?????????

    WTF? Déjà vu? So what they going to do if the US doesn’t invade Syria? Is something in the US going to blow up???

  5. Hillary on said:

    An excellent piece from Robert Parry and excellent comments also.
    .
    Prince Bandar bin Sultan of Saudi Arabia the well-connected former ambassador to the United States is called Chemical Bandar and suspected as being in charge of the many “rebels” presently in Syria and supplying them with the poison gas.

  6. Kristof the liberal who claimed in a NYTimes column in 2004 that GWBush never claimed that Iraq sought WMDs. (June 30/July 1)

    Please he’s not a liberal, he’s a liar, today about Syria, in 2004 about GWBush and Iraq. In many ways he’s worse than Tom Friedman, because Kristof doesn’t always take extremist positions.

  7. Perhaps I expect too much from technology, but we know when the explosion occurred. Would there not be some satellite record of a missile path to the site—if a missile was launched? Just asking. If not, the explosion was locally set off.

    • bobzz–

      With what gear is admitted to exist, there are not live TV views of every part of the earth at every second.

      Then, the gas may simply have escaped when “rebel” stores of the gas where shelled–no rocket use there.

      And not at all clear that a satellite could clearly see mortar rounds even if the satellite were in the right location with the right cameras.

      Last of course satellites would have a hard time telling who launched an ostensible rocket attack–it’s not like there’s some exact front line in this war.

    • Frances in California on said:

      Oh, bobzz! They were so hoping you wouldn’t try to use Logic!

  8. george hamilton on said:

    There is no qualitative difference between dying from a Sarin gas attack and dying from phosphorus bombs which is what Israel dropped on Gaza civilians two years ago; or dying from anti-personnel bombs which eviscerate every organ in the human body or fuel air bombs which explode overhead consuming all oxygen causing the victim’s lungs to explode inside their chest which is what the United States dropped on Iraq and Afghanistan. The moral outrage of Obama is breathtaking in its hypocrisy. Obama wants Assad out because the Israelis want him out and because it makes Iran that much more susceptible to regime change which will eliminate an Israeli rival and allow the Anglo-American alliance to control the Iranian oil reserves. More enemies will be created, more of America’s treasury will be squandered, and the lives of Americans will deteriorate further.

    • incontinent reader on said:

      And don’t forget the depleted uranium bombs we used in Fallujah and that Israelis dropped on the Palestinians in the Gaza. Furthermore, some of the medical experts in Fallujah that are treating newly born children with genetic deformities, believe the bombs contained enriched uranium. So, Mr. Kerry, if you want to make it a Munich moment maybe you should start blaming the Al Nusra in Syria, your friends in Israel, and our goons who laid waste to Iraq.

    • total distortion. Here’s the real story from the Red Cross in 2009:

      The International Red Cross said Tuesday that Israel has fired white phosphorus shells in its offensive in the Gaza Strip, but has no evidence to suggest it is being used improperly or illegally.

      The International Committee of the Red Cross urged Israel to exercise “extreme caution” in using the incendiary agent, which is used to illuminate targets at night or create a smoke screen for day attacks, said Peter Herby, the head of the organization’s mines-arms unit.

      “In some of the strikes in Gaza it’s pretty clear that phosphorus was used,” Herby told The Associated Press. “But it’s not very unusual to use phosphorus to create smoke or illuminate a target. We have no evidence to suggest it’s being used in any other way.”

      In response, the IDF said Tuesday that it “wishes to reiterate that it uses weapons in compliance with international law, while strictly observing that they be used in accordance with the type of combat and its characteristics.”

      Herby said that using phosphorus to illuminate a target or create smoke is legitimate under international law, and that there was no evidence the Jewish state was intentionally using phosphorus in a questionable way, such as burning down buildings or knowingly putting civilians at risk.

  9. SIDNEY MOSS on said:

    why not use bush who is a friend of Bondar to prevent Saudi interference

  10. mobsarebad on said:

    The New York Israeli Times.

    The Israelis really should pay you more, because you keep sending me e-mails with desperate requests to subscribe.

  11. elmerfudzie on said:

    Russia’s Gazprom will be very happy to see a new pipeline construction plan that’s about to stretch from Iran’s vast natural gas fields, through Iraq and into Syria, snipped to bits, before one foot of it’s laid down. Some of us can guess what Putin already knows, that Russia’s fifteen percent plus contribution to the world supply of gas is about to improve! Lebanon, Italy and eventually northern Europe would have greatly profited by having two gas producers competing against one another.

  12. A few aides still hope for peace?

    That’s your story?

    Jesus, Parry, the poor US only wants peace? But the mean old Saudis won’t let them; this is not news. This is myth. If the US in any way shape or form wanted peace in the Middle East, it would be there. This is ridiculous fantasizing on its face without any basis in reality.

    They started funding the Syrian opposition in 2005. Syria has been prominent on official hit lists for a decade, but you say we only want peace. This is just irresponsible.

  13. Dr Ajouz on said:

    This article is so far from reality . I have never seen a president killing his people for almost 3 years by Heavy and catastrophic weapon and we didn’t see except foolish replies . Assad is a criminal and dictator and should be eradicated like Qaddafi . Why you didn’t talk about what happened in Mali ? France starts its mission by invading a country within 1 week from controlling the rebel on 70% . You are just seeing from the eye of interest .