Israel’s ‘Bomb Iran’ Timetable

Exclusive: As the clock ticks down to the U.S. elections in November, another clock is ticking in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, whether Israeli forces should exploit the American political timetable to pressure President Obama to support an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, writes ex-CIA analyst Ray McGovern.

By Ray McGovern

More Washington insiders are coming to the conclusion that Israel’s leaders are planning to attack Iran before the U.S. election in November in the expectation that American forces will be drawn in. There is widespread recognition that, without U.S. military involvement, an Israeli attack would be highly risky and, at best, only marginally successful.

At this point, to dissuade Israeli leaders from mounting such an attack might require a public statement by President Barack Obama warning Israel not to count on U.S. forces — not even for the “clean-up.” Though Obama has done pretty much everything short of making such a public statement, he clearly wants to avoid a confrontation with Israel in the weeks before the election.

President Barack Obama on the campaign trail. (Photo credit: barackobama.com)

However, Obama’s silence regarding a public warning speaks volumes to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The recent pilgrimages to Israel by very senior U.S. officials — including the Secretaries of State and Defense carrying identical “PLEASE DON’T BOMB IRAN JUST YET” banners — has met stony faces and stone walls.

Like the Guns of August in 1914, the dynamic for war appears inexorable. Senior U.S. and Israeli officials focus publicly on a “window of opportunity,” but different ones.

On Thursday, White House spokesman Jay Carney emphasized the need to allow the “most stringent sanctions ever imposed on any country time to work.” That, said Carney, is the “window of opportunity to persuade Iran … to forgo its nuclear weapons ambitions.”

That same day a National Security Council spokesman dismissed Israeli claims that U.S. intelligence had received alarming new information about Iran’s nuclear program. “We continue to assess that Iran is not on the verge of achieving a nuclear weapon,” the spokesman said.

Still, Israel’s window of opportunity (what it calls the “zone of immunity” for Iran building a nuclear bomb without Israel alone being able to prevent it) is ostensibly focused on Iran’s continued burrowing under mountains to render its nuclear facilities immune to Israeli air strikes, attacks that would seek to maintain Israel’s regional nuclear-weapons monopoly.

But another Israeli “window” or “zone” has to do with the pre-election period of the next 12 weeks in the United States. Last week, former Mossad chief Efraim Halevi told Israeli TV viewers, “The next 12 weeks are  very critical in trying to assess whether Israel will attack Iran, with or without American backup.”

It would be all too understandable, given Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s experience with President Obama, that Netanyahu has come away with the impression that Obama can be bullied, particularly when he finds himself in a tight political spot.

For Netanyahu, the President’s perceived need to outdistance Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney in the love-for-Israel department puts Obama in a box. This, I believe, is the key “window of opportunity” that is uppermost in Netanyahu’s calculations.

Virtually precluded, in Netanyahu’s view, is any possibility that Obama could keep U.S. military forces on the sidelines if Israel and Iran became embroiled in serious hostilities. What I believe the Israeli leader worries most about is the possibility that a second-term Obama would feel much freer not to commit U.S. forces on Israel’s side. A second-term Obama also might use U.S. leverage to force Israeli concessions on thorny issues relating to Palestine.

If preventing Obama from getting that second term is also part of Netanyahu’s calculation, then he also surely knows that even a minor dustup with Iran, whether it escalates or not, would drive up the price of gasoline just before the election — an unwelcome prospect for Team Obama.

It’s obvious that hard-line Israeli leaders would much rather have Mitt Romney to deal with for the next four years. The former Massachusetts governor recently was given a warm reception when he traveled to Jerusalem with a number of Jewish-American financial backers in tow to express his solidarity with Netanyahu and his policies.

Against this high-stakes political background, I’ve personally come by some new anecdotal information that I find particularly troubling. On July 30, the Baltimore Sun posted my op-ed, “Is Israel fixing the intelligence to justify an attack on Iran?” Information acquired the very next day increased my suspicion and concern.

Former intelligence analysts and I were preparing a proposal to establish direct communications links between the U.S. and Iranian navies, in order to prevent an accident or provocation in the Persian Gulf from spiraling out of control. Learning that an official Pentagon draft paper on that same issue has been languishing in the Senate for more than a month did not make us feel any better when our own proposal was ignored. (Still, it is difficult to understand why anyone wishing to avoid escalation in the Persian Gulf would delay, or outright oppose, such fail-safe measures.)

Seeking input from other sources with insight into U.S. military preparations, I learned that, although many U.S. military moves have been announced, others, with the express purpose of preparation for hostilities with Iran, have not been made public.

One source reported that U.S. forces are on hair-trigger alert and that covert operations inside Iran (many of them acts of war, by any reasonable standard) have been increased. Bottom line: we were warned that the train had left the station; that any initiative to prevent miscalculation or provocation in the Gulf was bound to be far too late to prevent escalation into a shooting war.

SEARCHING FOR A CASUS BELLI

A casus belli — real or contrived — would be highly desirable prior to an attack on Iran. A provocation in the Gulf would be one way to achieve this. Iran’s alleged fomenting of terrorism would be another.

In my op-ed of July 30, I suggested that Netanyahu’s incredibly swift blaming of Iran for the terrorist killing of five Israelis in Bulgaria on July 18 may have been intended as a pretext for attacking Iran. If so, sadly for Netanyahu, it didn’t work. It seems the Obama administration didn’t buy the “rock-solid evidence” Netanyahu adduced to tie Iran to the attack in Bulgaria.

If at first you don’t succeed … Here’s another idea: let’s say there is new reporting that shows Iran to be dangerously close to getting a nuclear weapon, and that previous estimates that Iran had stopped work on weaponization was either wrong or overtaken by new evidence.

According to recent Israeli and Western media reports, citing Western diplomats and senior Israeli officials, U.S. intelligence has acquired new information — “a bombshell” report — that shows precisely that. Imagine.

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak told Israeli Radio that the new report is “very close to our [Israel’s] own estimates, I would say, as opposed to earlier American estimates. It transforms the Iranian situation to an even more urgent one.”

Washington Post neocon pundit Jennifer Rubin was quick to pick up the cue, expressing a wistful hope on Thursday that the new report on the Iranian nuclear program “would be a complete turnabout from the infamous 2007 National Intelligence Estimate that asserted that Iran had dropped its nuclear weapons program.”

“Infamous?” Indeed. Rubin warned, “The 2007 NIE report stands as a tribute and warning regarding the determined obliviousness of our national intelligence apparatus,” adding that “no responsible policymaker thinks the 2007 NIE is accurate.”

Yet, the NIE still stands as the prevailing U.S. intelligence assessment on Iran’s nuclear intentions, reaffirmed by top U.S. officials repeatedly over the past five years. Rubin’s definition of “responsible” seems to apply only to U.S. policymakers who would cede control of U.S. foreign policy to Netanyahu.

The 2007 NIE reported, with “high confidence,” the unanimous judgment of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies that Iran stopped working on a nuclear weapon in the fall of 2003 and had not restarted it. George W. Bush’s own memoir and remarks by Dick Cheney make it clear that this honest NIE shoved a steel rod into the wheels of the juggernaut that had begun rolling off toward war on Iran in 2008, the last year of the Bush/Cheney administration.

The key judgments of the 2007 NIE have been re-asserted every year since by the Director of National Intelligence in formal testimony to Congress.

And, unfortunately for Rubin and others hoping to parlay the reportedly “new,” more alarmist “intelligence” into an even more bellicose posture toward Iran, a National Security Council spokesman on Thursday threw cold water on the “new” information, saying that “the U.S. intelligence assessment of Iran’s nuclear activities had not changed.”

Relying on the unconfirmed Israeli claim about “new” U.S. information regarding Iran’s nuclear program, Rubin had already declared the Obama administration’s Iran policy a failure, writing:

“Foreign policy experts can debate whether a sanctions strategy was flawed from its inception, incorrectly assessing the motivations of the Iranian regime, or they can debate whether the execution of sanctions policy (too slow, too porous) was to blame. But we are more than 3 1/2 years into the Obama administration, and Iran is much closer to its goal than at the start. By any reasonable measure, the Obama approach has been a failure, whatever the NIE report might say.”

Pressures Will Persist

The NSC’s putdown of the Israeli report does not necessarily guarantee, however, that President Obama will continue to withstand pressure from Israel and its supporters to “fix” the intelligence to “justify” supporting an attack on Iran.

Promise can be seen in Obama’s refusal to buy Netanyahu’s new “rock-solid evidence” on Iran’s responsibility for the terrorist attack in Bulgaria. Hope can also be seen in White House reluctance so far to give credulity to the latest “evidence” on Iran’s nuclear weapons plans.

An agreed-upon casus belli can be hard to create when one partner wants war within the next 12 weeks and the other does not. The pressure from Netanyahu and neocon cheerleaders like Jennifer Rubin — not to mention Mitt Romney — will increase as the election draws nearer, agreed-upon casus belli or not.

Netanyahu gives every evidence of believing that — for the next 12 weeks — he is in the catbird seat and that, if he provokes hostilities with Iran, Obama will feel compelled to jump in with both feet, i. e., selecting from the vast array of forces already assembled in the area.

Sadly, I believe Netanyahu is probably correct in that calculation. Batten down the hatches.

Ray McGovern works with Tell the Word, a publishing arm of the ecumenical Church of the Saviour in inner-city Washington. During his 27 years in CIA’s analysis division, his duties included preparing and delivering the President’s Daily Brief and chairing National Intelligence Estimates.

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114 comments on “Israel’s ‘Bomb Iran’ Timetable

  1. So, are we talking about an “October surprise” ?

  2. Well written article. I hope common sense prevails in the White House and Netanyahu is exposed for the warmonger that he is. This was is not in America’s interests. If he wants to start this senseless war, then let his fly a jet himself or drive a tank. Jennifer Rubin can also join him in the cockpit. War is taken too lighly by those who will cheer and plan to watch only from the sidelines. This reminds me of the Founding Fathers’ warning that we should not tie up put national policies in alliances with other countries who clearly do not care about America interests. Iran is no threat to us.

    • MOSSAD on said:

      HEY WAYNE…………..BEND OVER A KISS YOUR ASS GOOD BYE !! BIBI

    • Pancho Villa on said:

      HEY WAYNE ARE YOU STUPID OR WHAT? PRESIDENT OF IRAN AND HIS SO CALLED CHURCH LEADERS WANT TO DESTROY ISRAEL AND USA. READ OTHER NEWS WEBSITE BESIDE FOX AND CNN. READ DRUDGE AND OTHER WORLD NEWS. MANY AMERICANS IN THE USA WOULD REALLY FIGHT FOR ISRAEL. OBAMA HATES ISRAEL AND LOVES PLO. WE NEED ANOTHER USA PRESIDENT BESIDES OBAMA. OBAMA IS A WICKED PRESIDENT WHO WILL LOSE THE NEXT ELECTION. WAYNE DONT BE STUPID THINK WITH YOUR BRAIN.

      • Dear Pancho:

        Where on Earth have you gotten the ill-informed idea that Iran’s president wants to destroy Israel and US? Drudge? Rush Limbaugh? Bill O’Reilly? Will you, or any of these war-mongers, or their family members be on the front lines in an attack?

        Please use the brains you were born with. Iran has never attacked another country; Israel has attacked all its neighbors AND the USS Liberty (knowing it was a US ship.

        The whole point of keeping Iran from developing a nuclear weapon is so Israel can be the sole nuclear power in the Middle East. The ultra-right wing Israeli government has stated as much.

        Please ask yourself why every US President and member of Congress has to pledge allegiance to Israel. Please research where the billions of US dollars and billions more in US military aid sent to Israel goes. Please inform yourself about what has been done to the Palestinian people during the decades of Israeli occupation and suppression. Please look up all the UN resolutions against Israeli government actions – only opposed by the US and Israel (and sometimes a US puppet, like Palau).

        Yes, the whole world hates the actions of Israeli government, except for the US which has given up any pretense of sovereignty when our Israeli masters demand action on our part.

        You are an uniformed twit!

      • “PRESIDENT OF IRAN AND HIS SO CALLED CHURCH LEADERS WANT TO DESTROY ISRAEL AND USA.”

        You seem to be resigned to remaining stupid forever.
        BTW: Israel is not holding up its potential of 1948.

        • The Iraqi president did say he wanted to wipe Israel off the map. That sounds like he wants to destroy Israel.

          People should support Israel. They are the only democracy in the middle east and share our same values. Also. Freedom of Religion. Woman and gay rights, etc..

          • Colin Smith on said:

            Ask the Palestinians living in Israel how much of a democracy Israel is It’s a democracy for the Jews only, which is no democracy at all. You’ve got your head up your arse Mike. Where you keep your brains.

          • Torin N on said:

            Dear Mike,

            First off, I think you meant to say the President of “Iran” and not the President of “Iraq.” Secondly, the President of Iran never said such a quote as you have stated. He stated that the “Zionist government will fade into the pages of time,” which is a lot less provocative. It’s a similar mistake in translation, such as the one we used to use against the Soviet Union (i.e. “Dancing on your graves”) during the Cold War.
            And third, as an American Intelligence Officer, Iraqi and Afghan War veteran, I would suggest that you and any other American who wants to attack Iran in the interest of another country march down to the Israeli recruiting office and volunteer your own life, instead of the lives of other American boys and girls. I’m sure they’d welcome your sacrifice. However, if you are only willing to sacrifice the lives of others, then you are nothing more than a boisterous coward.

          • Mannstein on said:

            Freedom of Religion really. Why is it that Christians visiting the Holy Places in Jerusalem are frequently being spat at by Orthodox Jews and the Israeli Police does nothing to stop it?

        • Mannstein on said:

          Israel and the US are well on their way to destrying themselves internally. Iran does not even have to lift a finger. That’s intuitively clear to even the most casual observer.

      • Well here’s a suggestion for you, Pancho Villa. Hike on down to the local enlistment office and sign up. Iran is a threat to no one.

        Iran has every right to develop nuclear energy and our own intelligence agencies repeatedly insist that there is no evidence, none, the Iran has a nuclear weapons program. Neither the U.S., nor Israel, nor any combination of nations has any legal or moral right to impose sanctions on Iran. To attack Iran would be a war crime, not that a little thing like that will dissuade the neoconservative idiots that lied us into invading Iraq.

        You are correct when you say the Obama is a wicked President. Unfortunately, the neoconservatives are no better than Obama’s Marxists.

        Finally, please unlock your cap locks key.

        • The truth is, the sanctions that have been imposed on Iran could already be considered an act of war, even short of a direct attack.

          • Mannstein on said:

            As could the assasinations of Iranian scientists and planting the Stuxney Virus in Iranian computers be considered an act of war.

            The war crimes have already been started. When gas prices hit $10/gal and the fragile economic recovery tanks we can blame Bibi and his lunatic defense minister.

    • Wayne. What will it take until you understand that they want you to convert or die. Simple as that. We drove to NY in late July and as I pulled up to Liberty Park in Jersey City there was a site to see. To the right was the Statue of Liberty, in the center was Ellis Island, to the left was a memorial to the Jersey victims of 9-11. Behind all this was Lower Manhattan with the Twin Tower memorials going up. And right there in the middle of all this was a Muslim Unity BBQ. with hundreds walking around.
      That knife in the back feels real good when it’s twisted huh. Or are you so blind that you can’t feel it?

      • >> JM “What will it take until you understand that they want you to convert or die.”

        As others have pointed out, there is no evidence that they have either the desire, or the capability to seriously attack the USA, or Israel for that matter.
        However, what is perfectly clear from the fervor of the utterly illegal and immoral War rhetoric spoken, unbelievably, by National Leaders, and echoed by mindless individuals who speak with their testicles instead of their brains, is that “we” bastions of “freedom and bravery” (USA & Israel), are truely the ones intent on converting or killing!
        Please for a moment forget your prejudice, and recall what it is that these monsters are proposing, then think on the numbers of dead that will result, on all sides!
        How is this not as obvious to you, as it is to me?

      • Mannstein on said:

        JM Tell me what were the dancing Israelis on a roof top in Jersey doing with cameras just when the planes hit the Twin Towers on 9/11? One Israeli I worked with was smiling like the proverbial Chiser Cat from Alice in Wonderland when they played the collapse of the Towers on TV. Netenyahoo even claimed the event was good for Israel in public and then realizing what he said tried to correct himsel but it was too late. With friends like that who needs enemies?

  3. Hillary on said:

    The agenda here is the TOTAL domination of the Middle East by Israel.

    What is best for the US or achieving world peace is NOT under consideration.

    Iran as a signatory to the Non Proliferation Treaty has every right to develop and implement nuclear technology.

    Israel rejected the NPT and has no such right.

    Yet, the Jewish state has ICBM nukes and openly threatens and campaigns for war against Iran.

    The US is being maneuvered into bringing a holocaust to Iran like it did to Iraq and Vietnam.

    Between 1962 and 1971, the U.S. military sprayed some 20 million gallons of Agent Orange and a galaxy of other herbicides on nearly 5 millions acres of forest in Vietnam.

    http://www.japantoday.com/smartphone/view/world/u-s-starts-landmark-agent-orange-cleanup-in-vietnam

    Dioxin from Agent Orange is a WMD and linked to cancer, birth defects and other disabilities seeped into Vietnam’s soils , fish and watersheds, creating a lasting war legacy.

    Depleted Uranium is another American WMD seeping into Mother Earth

    http://en.apa.az/news.php?id=132800

  4. It’s all part of US-Israel ‘war of nerves’ against Iran.

    Since the Jewish army was beaten by Lebanese Hizbullah in Summer 2006 – the Israeli Generals are not very exited to make a similar mistake with Iranian army, which former British foreign secretary Lord David Owen claimed in OP-Ed in daily Mirror – is the most powerful in the region. Four Israeli top Generals have advised Netanyahu not to attack Iran and let America do the dirty work for Israel.

    On July 31, the Zionist entity’s prime minister Netanyahu in a rare interview with Israel’s Hebrew channel and the Russian channel admitted that no matter how he and his defense minister Gen. Ehud Barak love to attack Iran – many of his cabinet members and Israel’s military generals are against a war with Iran.

    Israel’s daily Yedioth Ahronoth reported on July 31 that the army’s Chief of Staff Benny Gantz and the head of Mossad Tamir Pardo also oppose attacking Iran. Two other Israeli Generals who have voiced similar opinion, are Gen. Meir Dagan, former head of Mossad, and Yuval Diskin, former head of Israel’s internal security agency Shin Bet.

    The US-born Israeli journalist, Larry Derfner, in August 1 article wrote that Israeli military/intelligence establishment, backed by Obama administration have come out forcefully against war with the Islamic Republic, isolating Netanyahu – who needs the cabinet’s support to attack, and there is no way he’ll get it. Larry Derfner was fired by Israeli daily the Jerusalem Post last year for speaking the truth that Palestinian terror is result of Israeli occupation.

    http://rehmat1.com/2012/08/02/israeli-army-refuses-to-attack-iran/

    • Chris Stahnke on said:

      I don’t think the Isrealis/Americans need to “win” a war with Iran. Iran is not a credible threat in the region. The grand strategy is to create further chaos in the region this does two important things: 1) makes Sunni Muslims dependent on U.S./Israel/Gulf States for their security needs; and 2) guarantees that Israel and the U.S. will increase the power of the military an security apparatus in both countries and the region–the idea is that more terror and violence = more business for the merchants and soldiers of death. As long as there is general war in the world there will be no need for negotiating anything and the strong will prevail–that’s the new reality–we no longer live in the post-WWII dispensation–we are back to might makes right both in domestic and foreign affairs.

  5. Solomon Davidson on said:

    October Surprise is precisely what we are talking about – unless it becomes a September Surprise. Romney gave Netanyahu carte blanche to attack Iran when the two met in Jerusalem. The Israeli press says that nobody in their national security establishment favors war, but Netanyahu does for political reasons. Sheldon Adelson is the biggest financial backer for both Netanyahu and Romney – and he backs war with Iran right now – to shift the Jewish votes in the USA away from Obama and toward Romney. Does Obama have any choice? He has already sent Leon Panetta and Tom Donilon to Jerusalem to veto the Adelson-Romney-Netanyahu demand for war with Iran now. There is much to play for and many moving parts in this casus belli contraption. Stay tuned. This is the foreign policy challenge of this campaign.

  6. JosephW on said:

    My own personal recommendation: All those Jewish-Americans who traveled with Romney and wholeheartedly endorse an Israeli attack on Iran need to be told, “Move to Israel. NOW!! Or you get to spend the next 5 years–at a minimum–in Gitmo.”

    Then, I’d also go a step further and tell all the neocons so eager for that little showdown be told, “As soon as each and every one of you enlist in the US Armed Forces and are willing to put YOUR asses on the front lines, then we’ll talk about endangering more American troops to satisfy your warmongering wishes. It doesn’t matter if you’re past the age of enlistment–if that happens, then we’ll simply draft your sons and daughters or grandsons and granddaughters to ensure that YOU understand what it means to put *other* people in danger for your own greed, you sorry bastards.”

    • Thank-you.

    • Let Romney and his personal brood be first in line.

    • Good suggestions.
      Somehow, the reality of War needs to put in people’s faces again, especially in relation to the superficiality of disgusting Rich Men trying to get even Richer.
      Who knows, maybe one day, the Rule of Law may actually mean something again?

      • The Rule of Law hasn’t applied to warfare or international relations since the Nuremberg Trials, where the principle was established that whoever wins a war gets to decide who is guilty and innocent.

  7. Pingback: Israel to attack Iran before US election in November – Israel media report

  8. rosemerry on said:

    The US and Israel still act as if nobody else on earth has any importance at all; that a quick, devastating blow could destroy all Iran’s nonexistent WMD: that there would be no reaction of any size by Iran, and that the only problems are for Obama’s reelection and Bibi’s self-importance. Can they not realise that this could set off WW3?

    • They are transparently psychotic, sociopathic criminals, and it is just perfectly acceptable nowadays for a National Leader to simply state they intend to commit the “Ultimate War Crime” of unprovoked War?
      We live in very strange times indeed!

  9. douglas stapp on said:

    It always amazes me how people make decisions or come to conclusions about going to war with Iran, having put in very little thought on it at all.
    First you have to ask your self what would a nuclear Iran mean to the U.S,A.?
    And would Iran use such a weapon if i had it? And how would you stop them from using it once they did?
    All we can answer any of these questions with is Iran’s history of using weapons that it already has, it is known that Iran has supplied other groups outside its borders with the very latest weaponry in its arsenal to date, per any media source you would like to use, So you would have to assume that it would keep with that pattern of supply , But would they use it against the U,S. ? it is a great risk to think that it wouldn’t or couldn’t use it against us here at home with the amount of open borders that we have and the amount of drugs that find its way in , to think that it couldn’t happen is very closed minded, and dangerous to to believe,With Iran you have to also take into account who it thinks its enemy’s are and what they would be willing to do to achieve there goals and heavenly rewards .
    secondly how much would it cost to keep them from achieving that goal? both in life and dollars. would it be cheaper to keep them from having the weapon. or waiting and seeing if they get one? if one bomb was set off here in the U,S. what would the cost be then? and would you then be willing to pay a much higher price to take the steps to insure the safety here at home?and how would you insure that safety? more security at airports, check points and tsa at buss-stations. railways. check points on the highways? random stops buy local police , tighter restrictions on about every freedom we have left, and that is probably just the beginning to what would happen,
    So its not as easy as saying i wouldn’t go to war, or that i would for that matter, all i know is that i pray each day that the President has the fortitude and wisdom and the proper information to make the right decisions no matter how hard the choice.

    • Hillary on said:

      douglas stapp

      “So its not as easy as saying i wouldn’t go to war, or that i would for that matter, all i know is that i pray each day that the President has the fortitude and wisdom and the proper information to make the right decisions no matter how hard the choice.”

      Wow ! !

      Is that what you probably said before the US destroyed Iraq leaving over 2 million dead . crippled or orphaned a whole country destroyed and 2,000 tons of Depleted Uranium as a legacy to cause cancer and birth defects for decades ?

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GyYSe_u1go

    • “First you have to ask your self what would a nuclear Iran mean to the U.S,A.? And would Iran use such a weapon if i had it? And how would you stop them from using it once they did?”

      Absolutely nothing is going to happen if Iran did have a bomb, besides the fact there is no real proof that its nuclear program is specifically designed for that purpose. It’s all the same old lame accusations coming from the liars and idiot pundits in the mainstream media.

      Iran is not the threat when it comes to global security. Only Israel, India and Pakistan, three nuclear powers who are the real danger because of their inclinations for war due to the current crackpot fundamentalist leadership in Tel Aviv with a strong inclination for a pre-emptive nuclear strike on the one hand, or because of geopolitical reasons and border issues on the other.

    • Keep praying, fool. Israel is the real danger.
      Do you really want another war based on fabricated information and threats?

    • Chris Stahnke on said:

      Iran’s “threat” is pure propaganda by right wing regimes in the region. Pakistan and India have nuclear weapons why not Iran. If you look at actual facts–Iran is no threat compared to Israel and Saudi Arabia for example who are now and have been for some time trying to create more tensions between Sunnis, Shiites and other minorities in the region in order to divide and conquer. You think Iran is a threat because the U.S. media says almost nothing else just as it tends to present only the Israeli side of the Palestine/Israeli conflict–at least in recent years.

    • Let’s see now.

      1. Which countries in the region really possess nuclear weapons?
      2. Which has actually used nuclear weapons on civilians, the U.S. or Iran?
      3. Which country has invaded Middle Eastern countries, overthrown their governments, and killed thousands of their citizens?
      4. Which country has surrounded Iran with military bases?

      These are difficult questions, I know, but give them a bit of thought.

    • “what would a nuclear Iran mean to the U.S,A.?”

      It would mean a more stable, peaceful Middle East.

      Not that there’s a shred of evidence that Iran is building such a weapon.

  10. John Puma on said:

    The author says: “What I believe the Israeli leader worries most about is the possibility that a second-term Obama would feel much freer not to commit U.S. forces on Israel’s side. ”

    I’d suggest that the very opposite may well be the case: a second-term Obama would feel much freer TO commit U.S. forces on Israel’s side. (This is analogous to his infamously putting off his decision on the Keystone pipeline until after the election, and then, in a rare move, side-stepped the order from congress to do so at the beginning of 2012.)

    I’d like an analysis on why there was no “terrorist” attack at the Olympics for which Iran would be conveniently blamed. One can only speculate on the cost to the US & UK to get Israel to agree to hold off on some false flag operation.

    To douglas stapp: Why is supplying “other groups outside its borders with the very latest weaponry in its arsenal” by Iran so much more of a unique concern for us, and the world, that our own world-wide network of military bases, obviously outside our borders, and supplied with, by definition, the very latest weaponry available – and more of it than that possessed by all the rest of the worlds nations combined ?

  11. Bill Andrews on said:

    I hope Israel attacks the crap out of Iran. Anyone with a brain knows what Iran is up to. Warmongering ? Not hardly. Especially in the light of Bible Prophecy. Wake up world.

    • Why don’t you tell your Jewish buddies to forget their “crap at the hands of 1500 Hizbullah soldiers in 2006″, Bill Andrews, and let you lead the Jewish mighty army against Iran this time? After all German philosopher Guenter Wilhelm Grass did call Israel “world’s top war mongerer”.

      And Andrews what your Jewish Bible say? Does it says that serve the Jews who start their day spitting on the Cross and whose Talmud call Jesus’ “bastard” and his mother Saint Mary “hooker”.

      http://rehmat1.com/2012/04/05/german-nobel-laureate-israel-is-threat-to-world-peace/

    • Bill Andrews, there is a difference in reading your Bible and understanding and interpreting what is actually written in it. Your “faith” appears to be “in men”, instead of in Christ our Lord. Faith is a GIFT, and understanding the Fathers Words in scripture only comes from the Holy Spirit of God by praying that HE gives you understanding and discernment. When Jesus Christ stated, “The Kingdom of GOD is within YOU”, HE wasn’t speaking of the John Hagee ecumenical carnal and secular fleshly physical nation state of Israel. If you are in covenant with our Lord, then YOU are the temple(not some building built by human hands)of GOD and ARE the “ISRAEL OF GOD”.

    • “Anyone with a brain knows what Iran is up to. Warmongering ? Not hardly. Especially in the light of Bible Prophecy.”
      Another freak posting here!

  12. Hassanshaida on said:

    Surely even sitting in Tel Aviv you cannot seriously believe all this crap. So, all your “sources of information” tell you that Iran routinely supplies unspecified receipients with its most modern weaponry. Pray ell me which country has Iran invaded in the pst century – especially as compared to Israel and USA? And what kind of embecile can think that Iran can ship a nuclear bomb to Mexico or Canada, unloaded from an aircraft/ship; truck it all the way to the US border and smuggle it across the border? What kind of lunatic except you can think that Iran would use a single bomb against a continent-size country like the USA, when it knows that the US has 37,000 nuclear bombs with which it can destroy not only Iran but the entire world several times over? Why don’t you get real life?

    • Because these are not people, they are stone age animals and they care not about their country or their own citizens. These animals strap bombs to their women and children then send them into public places to kill civilians. They are working on nukes and everyone knows it. When they have them, they will use them. They want to bring about their final prophecy, they feel it is their destiny, they have no regard for mutually assured destruction, they simply don’t care. They are religious zealots, irrational and can not be reasoned with. Destroy them now or wait for them to set off a nuke somewhere and then destroy them… I vote for destroy them now!

      • “stone age animals”…

        You are delusional. You’ve been listening to right-wing hate rhetoric. The people of Iran are people, just like you. They are just trying to live their lives, raise their kids, etc.

        Where did you get your understanding of human nature? Glenn Beck?

      • “They are working on nukes and everyone knows it.”
        “They are religious zealots, irrational and can not be reasoned with.”

        They? No, you are crazy, for real.

      • Michael on said:

        Why are right-wingers all such ignorant pants-wetters?

      • Do you routinely wear white sheets and a pointy KKK hat?

      • “stone-age animals” versus “nuclear-age animals”, give me the stone-age variety please!

        Try to remember that you are human, and so are “they”.
        That means that you have 99.9% identical needs, desires, emotions and flaws to every other human being on the planet. Just genetics.
        They absolutely care just as much about their Country and their Children as you do.
        Like you (apparently) people can be seriously traumatized by acts of violence, and this may cause them to strike back in vengence in whatever way they able to.
        To the “stone-age animal” this may take the form a suicide bomber.
        To the “nuclear-age animal” they may use Nukes, F15s, M16s, White Phosphorous, apart-hate walls, military bases, satallites, drones, etc…
        This is the reason why international law has condemned, more than any other crime, the “Ultimate War Crime” – the unprovoked War of Aggression, containing within it all other War crimes.

        Violence only begets more violence. Try to feel your common humanity and ignore your trival differences.
        When we can all agree that we are Human beings First, and then secondly, Athiest / Bhuddist / Capitalist / Communist / Christian / Hindu / Islamic / Jain / whatever… then perhaps we shall have some Peace?

        “Terrorism is the war of the poor, and, war is the terrorism of the rich.”
        Peter Ustinov

      • Religious zealots as opposed to who? The nutjob rabbis who claim G-d promised them the Palestinians’ land? The Christian Zionists who want to start WWIII because they think it will fulfill Biblical prophecy?

        The reason Palestinians (not Iranians) strap bombs around themselves is because it’s the only means they have fighting back against the invaders occupying their land. Hopefully someday someone will supply them with military-grade weapons and train them in their use so they don’t have to continue using such tactics.

        The reason the Islamic world and the Arabs hate the U.S. is because of the United States’ complicity in the dispossession of the Palestinian people. The reason the 9/11 attacks occurred was because the United States’ support of Israel. It’s remarkable that the average American is so ignorant that he doesn’t realize that (or maybe not, considering the average American probably couldn’t find Iran on a map).

    • LeighLee on said:

      Have we forgotten what Israel has done to innocent Palestinians? Iran has no problem with Israel or Jews.It is the zionist regieme
      I personally know and have worked with both Israelis and Iranians .. and I take the Iranians any time. For their pride not arrogance. For their buisness ethics anot squeezing the last penny out of you.
      Iran may have many things of which we don’t approve,bsucide by an offensive act. But if attacked, and a hair of an Iranian child is hurt, we will see a surge of nationalism such as you have never seen before.
      If we didn’t have the existenial imager of Bibi, we could be friends, true friends of Iran and they will never attack a friend.

  13. JohnWV on said:

    Iran is only Israel’s current fixation. America’s entire electoral system has been corrupted by Netanyahu’s Israel, AIPAC, Israel Firsters and ingenious distribution of enormous amounts of Jewish money. Our representative democracy is nearly defeated and the destruction of America as we know it well underway. Termination of the criminal treachery and treason demands immediate priority. The Government of the United States must again serve American interests, not the Jewish state’s relentless pursuit of invulnerability, territorial conquest and apartheid supremacist empire in, and beyond, the Mideast.

  14. JohnWV on said:

    However did we get it all so backwards? As a signatory to the Non Proliferation Treaty, Iran has an internationally recognized right to develop and implement nuclear technology. Israel rejected the NPT and has no such right. Yet, the Jewish state has ICBM nukes and openly threatens Iran; actually campaigns for war against Iran. Israel, not Iran, should be sanctioned and forced to reveal its nuclear machinations to IAEA inspection. However did we get it all so backwards?

  15. Just back from trip to Palestine/Israel. People seem resigned to war with Iran. Don’t like Netanyahu, but love the
    army and will not resist if Netanyahu calls them to war. Netanyahu has predicted only a few hundred Israeli lives will be lost and that is “an acceptable risk.” Little resistance even if not so much enthusiasm. But then we didn’t talk to the Right wing Israelis and settlers. Jeff Haas

    • “Netanyahu has predicted only a few hundred Israeli lives will be lost and that is “an acceptable risk.””

      Could he be persuaded to be the first on that list?

  16. David G on said:

    “A second-term Obama also might use U.S. leverage to force Israeli concessions on thorny issues relating to Palestine.”

    Yes, in between his tackling our greenhouse gas emissions and instituting single-payer healthcare, right after pushing through strong gun control.

    This seems to be an unwelcome intrusion of this website’s preoccupation with delegitimizing opposition to Obama into its much more valuable work of shining a light on how Israel and much of the U.S. power elite may be moving inexorably toward war.

    I would suggest Consortiumnews dump the tired “don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good”, pro-Obama apologetics on the ash heap along with their brief “that commoner from Stratford couldn’t have written Shakespeare” flirtation, and focus on becoming a clear, credible voice for illuminating and maybe preventing the catastrophe of a war with Iran.

  17. Kudos Mr. McGovern:

    Wars without end. Should our great leader get a second term there will be a crescent moon flag flapping over the White House.

    Be aware and prepare!

    Right on Mr. McGovern – WRITE ON!

    Respectfully, Yoda@magnifiedview.com

    “Obama Pledges Billions To Islamist Terrorist Organization:

    http://www.magnifiedview.com

  18. Speculation – nothing more – as if this is true and handed out from a guy on the corner. People write these articles with all their wonderful credentials because most reader’s like to read it…months go by other things happen and this info gets buried and forgotten…what we need to see is writer’s held accountable for their exagerated claims of inside info and ban them when their dead wrong and maybe then all this false hype might end.

  19. \izrael will do gods will no matter what,why dont these muslims in iran the leadership repent and accept the truth which is jesus christ,not their stupid so called muslim christ,which is suppose to come and save them only christ can do that they our all yes all muslims our decieved in their belief system may the true lord have murcy and help all muslims in jesus name.

  20. This sounds a little like what happened in the Yom Kippur War; when the Israelis were losing and Nixon was withholding aid (his tapes make it clear he wasn’t just an anti-Zionist but a real, live anti-Semite), they threatened to use their nukes, and to avoid WW3 Nixon opened the logistics valves on the POMCUS sites in Western Europe, intended to check a Soviet onslaught, and flew the majority to Israel. The rest, as they say, is history.

    But Obama is a Brzezinski protege when it comes to foreign policy, and wily old Mr. B and the Israelis don’t see eye-to-eye. They never fit on his ‘Grand Chessboard’. He made it quite plain what he thought should be done to Israeli warplanes crossing US-controlled Iraqi airspace en route to Iran without our permission.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Netanyahu starts the war, and Obama sits on the sidelines, arms folded, not lifting a finger, with a smile borrowed from the Buddha. You don’t need any ‘games theorists’ to figure out what happens next. Quite a few secular folks in Foggy Bottom would like to see the Israeli influence on US foreign (and therefore, domestic) policy in the US broken courtesy of a humbled – or even defunct – Israel.

    And with the huge oil deposit in the Dakotas (about which you hear so little; I wonder why?), large enough to ensure domestic US energy independence for some time, now being made accessible due to improvements in technology, the ‘need’ for the US to be ‘engaged’ in the Middle East has lessened, considerably…another factor in the calculations where time is of the essence for Netanyahu.

    A window of opportunity is closing, and possibly closing faster than those doing the calculations may be aware…

    • John Puma on said:

      Spare us. Obama doesn’t even have the spine to defend the likes of Van Jones, Sherrod, ACORN nor Wisconsin workers from the radical reich terrorist chorus.

      If Netanyahu is monster enough to attack Iran, Obama will stumble over himself to save Israel and his own political ass.

  21. Gil Simon on said:

    Bibi is overplaying his hand if he attacks Iran before the election. Yes, the US is a strong ally of Israel. How strong would be put to the test if a conflict averse US is challenged to choose between Israel and staying out of another neocon boondoggle.

    • Chris Stahnke on said:

      I think Bibi has a good chance of coming out ahead on this one. The war will not be successful but there will be a permanent state of war and thus the militarists will win out. It took, for example, a very long time for the Europeans to tire of WWI–a silly and useless war–so once war on that level starts there is no ending it. Look how long the U.S. has been in Afghanistan and there is no and will be no possible victory there. The whole war was a fraud from start to finish and it won’t likely finish. The martinets want war for its own sake–it provides marvelous opportunities for the violently inclined who Americans worship above all else.

      • Hmm, so the fact the Taliban harbored Al-quida training camps and Usama bin Laden did NOT make Afghanistan a legimate place for war, espicially in light of the US having supplied and equiped the mujahadein with the means to defeat the Soviet Unions army, and

        they repaid the US for that with bin ladens attacks from 1993 first World Trade Center bombing, US embassy bombings in Africa The USS Cole attack, and of course the attack on the US mainland, the World Trade Center and its thousands of INOCENT traders, from nearly every country in the world, the US war nerve center the Pentagon and the probable attack on either the White House or Congress twarted by the Crash of Flight 93??? Hmm I agree WHOLE HEARTEDLY that the Iraq war was unnecessary!!! but Afghanistan is still an legitimate area of operations but we should have emphasized what Greg Mortenson is doing and built schools and gone offering the olive branch first AFTER the Taliban were so quickly routed…but of course the perception that all US moves are economically based is the root of such slf hatred and anti-semitism

        Israel is still the home of the survivors of the worst part of the Nazi Holacaust, and has survived myriad attempts to eradicate it obstensibly with US aid but NOT DIRECT US ASSISTANCE Its short sided to believe Iran is strictly using rhetoric of destroying US AND Israel as means to improve its standing in a highly fractored PAN Arab region, it DOES have offensive nucleur capacity if only “dirty bombs” mounted in their best rockets, and sending the components of a majority of the IEDS my comrades in the military have been killed, and mained by, so despite my friendship with both Persian Americans and Jewish concentration camp survivors I have a direct interest and direct knowledge of Iranian military capacity, so I have to say to portry the Iranian president as peace loving, and that the Palestians have legimate claim to ALL of the traditional home of the tribe of Judah does not jive with history or reality, remember what this world would be like if USA had lost WWII and if British had not given survivors of the Holacaust their home back and if Soviet Union had not succumbed with the rare combination of the mujahdein and the USA????

        • The world would be a much better place if the U.S. had stayed out of WWII (and WWI, for that matter).

          The Brits had no business promising Palestine to the jews, and the U.S. had no business giving Israel diplomatic recognition.

          As for a jewish homeland, well, that’s exactly what Hitler was trying to give the jews before that “man of peace” FDR managed to foment war in Europe. No government cooperated more closely with the Zionists than did Hitler’s before the war. There was talk of relocating Europe’s jews to Madagascar, and it’s a tragedy for the world that this did not happen.

  22. Chris Stahnke on said:

    I have, since the financial crisis, consistently said that there was no way that either Israel or the U.S. would go to war with Iran because Wall Street and the City of London rule and it would be bad for business. For complex reasons, I not longer believe that situation is in place. The oligarchs have done fairly well, have grabbed all the power they want, and established themselves and their families as hereditary aristocrats for many generations to come. The danger is that, at some point either economic panics or environmental problems will create problems with world food supplies (as we are seeing) and the shit may hit the fan from a security POV. So this may be a good time to tip the scales towards a more intense state of permanent war both to distract the U.S. public and guarantee a neo-feudal or neo-fascist regime in the United States which would insure that no dissent or instability would threaten those in power. A war now would guarantee that the militarists and para-military forces around the world would gradually take over most societies and we will be living in quite an interesting and violent world.

    All the potential reasons for war are fraudulent as they have been for quite some time. The American public loves war for its own sake–I don’t think Americans care if “we” “win” or not–just so stuff gets blown up and body parts are flying. I have never seen a public so insensitive to the suffering of others as I have in this current generation of Americans.

    • “The American public loves war for its own sake–I don’t think Americans care if “we” “win” or not–just so stuff gets blown up and body parts are flying. I have never seen a public so insensitive to the suffering of others as I have in this current generation of Americans.”

      That’s because Americans haven’t seen war on their own soil in a long, long time. When they’re on the receiving end, as they were on 9/11, they don’t like it one bit at all.

  23. Kenny Fowler on said:

    Nety and the neocons can try to sell this thing all up and down the block but Obama’s not buying it. He will not be manipulated into regime change schemes in Iran. Will the Israeli’s attack alone? Not bloody likely! Hang tough Obama, you can do it.

  24. Ted Henry on said:

    What better way to stop an election than for a US ally to go to war. With all the EO’s in place, all BO needs is casus belli, ie., Israel attacks Iran then martial law, constitution suspended, no election (National Crisis), Viola BO stays in office…indefinately(?)…

  25. george on said:

    FALSE FLAG HERE,WHEN ISRAEL ATTACKS I BELIEVE IRAN WILL DETONATE A NUCULEAR DEVICE THAT WILL MAKE THE WORLD THINK ISRAEL IS BEHIND IT AND SET OFF A CHAIN REACTION THAT WILL NOT BE REVERSED…..SADDNESS…

  26. As usual, this is about the Israel-first crowd trying to get the US to fight their wars for them.

    And their threat: if you don’t do it, we will.

    Let’s make sure there is a high cost for them starting Middle East War III. We can do this nonviolently by pledging to BOYCOTT ISRAEL IF IT BOMBS IRAN:

    http://www.divestfromwar.org

    Let’s PREVENT the next war, instead of protesting it after the fact!

  27. Pingback: Iran’s Nuclear Program Merely a Pretext « Antiwar.com Blog

  28. Charlie on said:

    Why do we have to beat around the bush? Let’s not just say what is really important. That the US is being held hostage by zionist Neocons who only want America to sacrifice for a bull shit war with Iran. A nation that has done absolutely nothing and poses no threat. Let’s take these neocons on head-on, call them what they are. American Zionist Jews who care more for Israel than they do for America. People who love to see American Christian soldiers pay the price on the battlefield for their diabolical ambitions. To hell with these cowards. We need American politicians with balls, honor, and love for God and American FIRST!!!

  29. Pingback: #PALESTINE NEWS | Aug 14, 2012 | Occupied Palestine | فلسطين

  30. Pingback: BOINNK!!! | Wat is de échte reden dat Israël Iran wil aanvallen vóór de Amerikaanse Presidentsverkiezingen?

  31. Pingback: Ex-CIA Analyst: The Real Reason Israel Wants To Strike Iran Before US Election « Counter Information

  32. Pingback: Ex-CIA Analyst Tells Us The Real Reason Israel Wants To Strike Iran Before The US Election | Pakalert Press

  33. Pingback: Ex-CIA Analyst Tells Us The Real Reason Israel Wants To Strike Iran Before The US Election | The Rapture Is Imminent!

  34. Attacking Iran is just…a dream. Iran is simply too powerfull to be bothered directly–in physical sense–much less attacked

    The clock is ticking for the entity…

  35. If the US joins an attack BEFORE the election, I will vote AGAINST Obama. If no attack has occurred by then, I will (very reluctantly) vote FOR Obama, as most likely to curb Israel, the chief threat to peace in the whole world.

    If Israel detects broad sentiment to resemble mine, they might wait until about November 4 or 5 to attack, enabling Romney (if elected) to claim that he “inherited” the war, as he jumps in with both (of OUR) feet.

    Much depends on Israel’s ability to contrive a casus belli, as most countries do (e.g., Germany, the US) before attacking.

  36. rachel on said:

    I was a life long republican but after seeing the GOP destory Ron Paul, push Mitt down our throats and then seeing Mitt take the gold medal for kissing Isreal’s butt and pandering to a them, even I will vote for Obama.

    There is no way I can call myself a republican anymore. If Isreal bombs Iran I will not support American involvment and do everything in my limited power on the internet to point out Iran is not a threat to us and Bibi is a mad man.

    Thank you RM for the article. I shared it on FB and hope that others will share it too.

  37. Pingback: RAY MCGOVERN: ISRAEL’S BOMB IRAN TIMETABLE; THE REAL REASON ISRAEL WANTS TO STRIKE IRAN BEFORE THE U.S. ELECTION « sreaves32

  38. Pingback: CHOSSUDOVSKY: TOWARDS A WORLD WAR III SCENARIO « sreaves32

  39. NO Pearl Hormuz sneak attack on iran, TOJObama and Bibihito!

  40. Leave Iran (Persia) alone, and remember the USS Liberty! Jon Haggee and his Muslim hating christian Zionists want to attack Persia to protect Israel but God is Israel’s protector not US. Blessed are the Peacemakers. Make love not War! Americans will not tolerate another Bogus War and the result could be the Second American Revolution, is it worth it? Well, is it?

  41. Iran ought to relocate prominent members of the Iranian jewish community to the areas most likely to be targetted by an Israeli or American strike, making sure to let its belligerent Israeli neighbor know that it is doing so.

  42. I suppose the Zionist warmongers, assuming they’re thinking rationally at all, think that an attack on Iran will just be a repeat of Iraq, and that Iran will also fall with little real resistance. But what if it doesn’t turn out that way; what if the conflict ignites WWIII instead? What if Iran turns out to be better prepared for this than was estimated, managing to cut off traffic in the Gulf for an indefinite period and launching a retaliatory attack on Tel Aviv (perhaps using chemical weapons), and Russia and China enter the conflict? Russia already demonstrated to the U.S. and its vassals in South Ossetia in 2008 that it’s not screwing around anymore, and China could probably pull the plug on the U.S. economy any time it wants.

    If that should happen, if this should turn into WWIII, I predict that not only will the U.S. lose its empire, as the British lost theirs under warmonger Churchill, but it will lead to the annihilation of the jewish people. They will get blamed for this, as they should, as well as for a worldwide economic collapse; and, unlike in past centuries, they will have no place to turn to for refuge. The United States is the real jewish homeland, the real center of jewish power, not Israel. When America falls, the jewish people will fall with it.

  43. melvin polatnick on said:

    Keffiyeh and Yarmulke wearers have never been in greater danger of extermination. The coming attack by Israel on Iran would result in a retaliation that would kill most Jews and destroy thousands of synagogues. Every nuclear bomb in the Israeli arsenal would then be used, 85% of Sunnis, Shi`ites and their Mosques would cease to exist. The few survivors will trash their Torah`s and Koran`s, they will only worship oil wealth and Shekels. The words Shalom and Allahu Akbar will be forgotten.

    • The Muslims aren’t in any danger of disappearing; there’s about 2 billion Muslims on the planet over a wide geographic area, versus about 13 million jews, most of them concentrated in the U.S. and Israel.

  44. Pingback: ΟΙ ΔΡΟΜΟΙ ΤΟΥ ΙΣΡΑΗΛ ΓΙΑ ΑΕΡΟΠΟΡΙΚΟ ΧΤΥΠΗΜΑ ΤΟΥ ΙΡΑΝ-Israel’s Iran Strike Routes | ZeroHedge « ΝΕΑ ΧΩΡΙΣ ΦΙΛΤΡΟ ΦΕΛΛΟΥ

  45. Pingback: Israel’s Iran Strike Routes « TRANSMISSIONS

  46. google muslims and jews have been killing each other since jesus got murdered the two of you should die screw both of you!

  47. don’t you think you have been fighting for long time!

  48. screw you war is hell over sand?