Biden is escalating the war to create new facts on the ground before his presidency ends in January, writes M.K. Bhadrakumar.
U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer addressing the press in Washington on Friday. (Simon Dawson/No 10 Downing Street, CC BY 2.0)
By M.K. Bhadrakumar
Indian Punchline
U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer met with U.S. President Joe Biden in the White House on Friday with the question of the use of long-range missiles by Ukraine to hit deep inside Russia on their agenda of conversation. But there were no announcements, nor was there any joint press conference.
Starmer later told the media that the talks were “productive” but concentrated on “strategy” rather than a “particular step or tactic.” He did not signal any decision on allowing Kiev to fire long-range missiles into Russia.
Starmer said no final decision had been taken on the Storm Shadow missiles and hinted that further developments may follow at the gathering of the U.N. General Assembly later this month. “We’ll obviously pick up again in UNGA in just a few days time with a wider group of individuals,” he said.
One reason for such extreme secrecy is that the U.S. and U.K. are intensely conscious of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s explicit warning Thursday that any use of Western long-range missiles to strike Russia “will mean that NATO countries, the United States, and European countries are parties to the war in Ukraine. This will mean their direct involvement in the conflict, and it will clearly change the very essence, the very nature of the conflict dramatically.”
Putin added in measured words: “This will mean that NATO countries – the United States and European countries –- are at war with Russia. And if this is the case, then, bearing in mind the change in the essence of the conflict, we will make appropriate decisions in response to the threats that will be posed to us.”
[See: Raising the Stakes in Ukraine]
Admittedly, Putin has given similar warnings before, but did not follow through even when Western weaponry was used by Ukraine — with impunity to invade Russia recently. So much so that Biden was plainly dismissive about the latest Kremlin warning, saying, “I don’t think much about Vladimir Putin.”
For its part, Moscow estimates that although no official decision on the matter has been announced it has already been made and communicated to Kiev, meaning that Moscow would have to respond with actions of its own.
Biden and Starmer at the White House on Friday. (Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Street, CC BY 2.0)
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, Moscow’s point person on the diplomatic track, was quoted as saying on Saturday:
“The decision has been made, the carte blanche and all indulgences have been given (to Kiev), so we [Russia] are ready for everything. And we will react in a way that will not be pretty.”
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who now serves as deputy chairman of the country’s security council, went a step further saying that the West is testing Russia’s patience but it is not limitless. He said Ukraine’s invasion already gave Russia formal grounds to use its nuclear arsenal.
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Medvedev warned that Moscow could either resort to nuclear weapons in the end, or use some of its non-nuclear, but still deadly novel weapons for a large-scale attack.
“And that would be it. A giant, grey, melted spot instead of ‘the mother of Russian cities’,” he wrote on the Telegram messaging app, referring to Kiev.
Putin, in his remark on Thursday once again rejected the Anglo-American sophistry that it is Ukraine that will be using any Western long-range missiles and not NATO. He pointed out that the Ukrainian army
“is not capable of using cutting-edge high-precision long-range systems supplied by the West. They cannot do that. These weapons are impossible to employ without intelligence data from satellites which Ukraine does not have. This can only be done using the European Union’s satellites, or U.S. satellites – in general, NATO satellites…most important, the key point even – is that only NATO military personnel can assign flight missions to these missile systems. Ukrainian servicemen cannot do this.
Therefore, it is not a question of allowing the Ukrainian regime to strike Russia with these weapons or not. It is about deciding whether NATO countries become directly involved in the military conflict or not.”
Interestingly, neither Washington nor London has so far refuted Putin’s above explanation and, curiously, it has been missing from British press reports — perhaps on fears that public opinion might militate against such direct involvement by the U.K. in a war against Russia in a combat role.
Moscow anticipates that the U.S.-U.K. ploy may be to test the waters by first (openly) using Britain’s Storm Shadow long-range air-launched cruise missile, which has already been supplied to Ukraine.
On Friday, Russia expelled six British diplomats assigned to the Moscow embassy in a clear warning that U.K.-Russia ties will be affected. Russia has already warned the U.K. of severe consequences if the Storm Shadow were to be used to hit Russian territory.
U.K. embassy in Moscow. (NVO, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0)
What makes the developing situation extremely dangerous is that the cat-and-mouse game so far about NATO’s covert involvement in the Ukraine war is giving way to a game of Russian roulette that follows the laws of Probability Theory.
That is to say, although Russia cannot be defeated or evicted from the territories in eastern and southern Ukraine that it annexed, Washington and London regard that the final outcome of this random event cannot yet be determined before it occurs; it may even be any one of several possible outcomes, and the probability cannot be ruled out that the actual outcome might even be determined by chance.
Apparently, Biden believes that Russia’s current battlefield dominance is a random phenomenon and possible outcomes range from an annihilation of Russian military power to a large-scale disruption of life in Russia and a possible collapse of Russia — at a minimum, the weakening of the Russian hand in any future negotiations.
Simply put, the war is now about Russia rather than Ukraine and long-range missiles can be a game changer.
Storm Shadow missile on display at the Royal Air Force Museum London. (Corrado Baldassi, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0)
Thus, Biden, with no political constraints working on him anymore, is escalating the war to create new facts on the ground before his presidency ends in January, which may create conditions for permanent NATO military presence on Ukrainian territory and present Russia with a fait accompli.
Such a strategy built on the quicksands of probability is akin to a game of Russian roulette — an act of bravado. Indeed, Biden’s options to support Ukraine are shrinking with each escalation. As The Wall Street Journal puts it,
“With only four months left in the Biden administration and little hope of Congress approving additional funding for Ukraine no matter who wins the presidency, the White House is debating how best to help Kyiv given its limited toolbox.”
Equally, Europe’s interest in the war is also waning.
European politics is becoming unpredictable with the ascendancy of the far-right in Germany, the crisis of leadership in French politics, the relative decline of the EU’s economy vis-a-vis global rivals due to limited innovation, high energy prices and skills gaps, etc. and, of course, the overarching economic crisis in Europe with no end in sight, as brought out starkly in the recent report by Mario Draghi.
Basically, Biden is pre-setting the trajectory of the war beyond next January so that even after his retirement, his policy approach aimed at inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia remains on track.
White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on Saturday that Washington is working on a “substantial” round of further assistance for Kiev. He confirmed a meeting this month between Biden and his Ukrainian counterpart Zelensky.
Sullivan noted that Biden is working to put Ukraine in the “best possible position to prevail” during his final months in office.
The bottom line is that Biden’s war strategy is attenuating as “escalation management” while NATO transitions as a direct party to hostilities.
M.K. Bhadrakumar is a former diplomat. He was India’s ambassador to Uzbekistan and Turkey. Views are personal.
This article originally appeared on Indian Punchline.
The views expressed are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of Consortium News.
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So if we don’t have a nuclear war by January there is a possibility that the world will survive.
Ukraine is going to run out of men with which to continue fighting this proxy war. Apparently this will happen early in 2025.
Assuming we are still here, Starmer’s belligerence would scupper his hopes of being re-elected. At the moment the proven serial liar is trying to act tough, and in any case Britain always bends over for Washington, but he’s surely not a complete idiot.
Let them be honest on at least one count: Biden is no longer in charge. His administration has gone down in flames. The wing nut monsters are in charge.
PM Starmer’s visit to Washington is about much more than western bravado and missiles to Moscow.
That’s mostly cover for home audiences for the real story they dare not tell
UK economy and credit worthiness have been debased into the basement
The piper called once Fitch downgraded Ukrainian debt to ‘C’ imminent risk of default.
UK among the largest lenders into the unwinnable hail Mary war with Russia
No hope any Storm Shadow can fix that now.
Fed lowering rates on the other hand would be mighty timely.
Especially with an emergency swap line direct to Threadneedle St keeping dead pension funds at al afloat.
hxxps://alexkrainer.substack.com/p/the-coming-collapse-of-britain
NATO has been a direct party in the war since it began. With ‘advisors’ and mercenaries and satellite intelligence.
The difference now is that Ukraine needs the U.S. for guidance of the U.K. long range missiles to evade being shot down.
Blinken conspired with Zelensky behind Biden’s back to lure the dunce Starmer into using storm shadow missiles. The meeting in DC was intended by Starmer to get the go-ahead from Biden. But Biden refused. At least for now.
There are various levels of denial in the White House. The neocons still think they can win this thing and are willing to escalate to WW3. Like the insane people they truly are. Biden is slightly less insane but in a rage about his legacy being yet another military defeat. The Pentagon wants no part of WW3 with Russia. They are focused on preparing for WW3 with China.
So Biden will continue to try to come up with some way to threaten Russia for P.R. purposes without provoking WW3. All he really wants is some fake narrative that he can use to continue lying to the voters that Ukraine has any chance whatsoever. It never has, and still doesn’t.
The drama will continue right up until election day. If Trump wins, there will be utter chaos in the White House and even more so in Kiev. Trump will then be able to reveal his plan for ending the war which will be simply cutting off arms and cash to Zelensky. If Harris wins, Biden will be able to paper over his defeat in Ukraine. If Americans are dumb enough to elect Harris, then they will swallow whatever nonsensical narrative Biden creates. In order to conceal having been bested by Putin and routed in Ukraine. Lipstick on Nuland’s war pig.
Alea iacta est.
I suggest that we all get our fall out shelters ready.
This is the one area where I see a genuine and potentially important difference between Trump and Harris. As narcissistic and generally disagreeable as Trump is, he does seem to love his children and country (probably as extensions of his beloved self) in a way I do not see from the Bidens, Harrises, Obamas, and HRCs of the world. This does seem to act as a stabilizing influence for him when pushed into a real existential dilemma, where a true regime aparat would simply push the button for war.
I can already envision a Russian hypersonic missile landing somewhere in the United Kingdom, if Starmer proceeds with Storm Shadow attacks deep inside Russia. Will the British media report on such an event, or will they continue to shield their public from unpleasant facts? I ask that question only partially in jest.
Listening to Alex and Alexander on The Duran a couple of days ago.
(h**ps://rumble.com/v5et3uj-uk-missiles-ready-to-strike-russia.-putin-warns-usuk.html?e9s=src_v1_ucp)
The US Military (Austin) does not support striking pre-2014 Russian targets.
Breaking with the Chickenhawk Neocons and London who have somehow become fused on policy.
A bit of sanity.
I like sanity.
They are my daily dose of sanity. Together, and individually, they make a lot of sense. And they have very well-informed and interesting guests, too – Jeffrey Sachs, being my favourite.
Pity they can’t broadcast on MSM channels. More people need to hear them to understand just how insane the official narratives are in the west, and how close to the edge we are getting!
They are my daily dose of sanity too! And every last minute of Mercouris’ solo podcast too.
Foreign policy is no longer set by the President. The voters are powerless. Nothing will change no matter which figurehead is elected.
Pat, I disagree. The status quo candidate. Kamala Harris-Biden will pursue the US / UK / NATO war against Russia. The alternative candidate, the candidate of change, has re-stated a policy of stopping the war immediately – perhaps before being sworn in. Perhaps Mr Trump may do exactly that. Ms Harris-Biden will certainly not. Please don’t believe that the two alternatives are identical. I sense your desperation.
But Trump has already said, in the first debate with Biden, that Putins conditions just to sit down and negotiate (all captured territories and Crimea remain with Russia, and assurances that Ukraine will never go NATO) are unacceptable.
Chilling, to the bone.
Biden was told to stand down from his campaign due to his incompetence, so why pretend he is capable to address such an existential question with Starmer? Biden’s cognitive decline is clear evidence of the workings of the Deep State. He is likely absent from the crucial decisions, made at an increasingly accelerated pace, risking life as we know it.
The sociopaths all need to be named. The continued killing as a strategy for an electoral win is sociopathic.
Yes Riva, I agree. The present circumstances prove conclusively that the POTUS, the self-proclaimed “leader of the free world”, is irrelevant. The ship of state runs itself. It needs no “Commander in Chief”. The present incumbent has left the building and the place still operates. Of course Biden is “absent from critical decisions”. I think that he has not made a decision during this presidency. I noticed a Chris Hedges article here with the words: Our political class does not govern. It entertains. Governance exists. But it is not seen. It is certainly not democratic. Chris recognises the truth.
Biden doesn’t make decisions to raise stakes in this Russian Roulette. His puppeteers Blinken, Sullivan and other warmongering neocons put in his administration and State Department do. Rest assured, the lives of these pro-Israel, Ivy-League habitues, pampered since birth, will never be put in danger as millions and millions of others’ will.
Good points all, Linda. Biden is really Blinken, the stalwart Zionist with scripted, manufactured sympathy for the Palestinians except for when he’s channeling billions to the Israelis in money, and killing machinery to make mincemeat of Palestinian ruffians under the age of 4 years old. Blinken is a menace. What ever he touches turns to bleakness ,blood, death and destruction. Peace making is beyond his need for psychological compensation. Bigness and domination is all that matters for this little man and arrived at by the coarse acts of the bully. Like Netanyahu.
Biden: too frail to be charged – for the same indictments Trump is facing – but ‘with it’ enough to complete his presidency. America is allowing an addled chief executive to manage it’s proxy war with the strongest nuke power on the planet. A script writer would reject this for a movie because it is simply too unbelievable. Yet here we are.
Barring nuke developments, Ukraine and NATO will lose. NATO will lose militarily, their credence shot to hell, member’s treasuries almost emptied – although it could be argued that they already are, and NATO will finally have to admit it’s obsolescence. It SHOULD have been dissolved when the Warsaw Pact ceased to exist.
But america wants it all. It just may get a lot more than they bargained for. If there were any competent statesmen (and women) in the land of bilk and money, we would not be here. Unfortunately, we have the likes of Biden, Harris, Kirby, Sullivan, Nuland and STILL Hillary Clinton, and the rest of the blinkered, brain-dead gang running us all down the road to extinction.
Make it a point to hug whomever you may love. You may not have that many chances to do so left.
Wow.
The thing that immediately comes to mind is how much I despise these people – Joe Biden, Antony Blinken, Jake Sullivan, John Kirby and the rest of the neocons, how they dare to inflict the consequences on my grandchildren and other people’s grandchildren of their demonic, hegemonic ambitions.
Thanks for this report, Mr. Bhadrakumar. I only wish it had more readers among the Americans who will soon engage in what they consider ‘democracy’ of a vote between two candidates, neither of whom will likely change the trajectory that you discuss. If the that electorate had even an inkling of what this Administration is doing and the stakes involved, perhaps they’d ‘wise up’ and the prospects for peaceful conclusion would be better.