Trump hinted he’d prefer a “nice” diplomatic deal, but Iran’s top diplomat said though he was prepared to listen it would take a lot more for Iran to begin negotiations with the U.S., writes M.K. Bhadrakumar.
Ayatollah Khamenei (khamenei.ir/Wikimedia Commons)
By M.K. Bhadrakumar
Indian Punchline
A whiff of wariness bordering on pessimism about the prospect of reaching an enduring nuclear deal with the U.S. permeated the remarks by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Friday in Tehran in an address to top military officials.
It was an unusual speech, coming just three days after U.S. president Donald Trump signed the National Security Presidential Memorandum imposing “maximum pressure” on Iran to deny it “all paths to a nuclear weapon” on Feb. 4. (See my blog Trump revives ‘maximum pressure’ on Iran but adds a message on U.S.-Iran deal, Indian Punchline, Feb. 7.)
Succinctly put, the Supreme Leader made the following observations:
- A nuclear deal per se is not panacea for Iran’s problems.
- The JCPOA experience shows the U.S. cannot be trusted. While President Barack Obama didn’t follow up that 2015 deal, President Donald Trump simply tore it up.
- In retrospect, all the negotiations and all the concessions and compromises that Iran made turned out to be futile.
- Negotiating with the U.S., therefore, is neither a wise nor intelligent thing to do or even an honourable thing.
Indeed, there is no substantive change in the U.S. attitude toward Iran since 2015 when the Obama administration negotiated the JCPOA. Therefore, Khamenei’s remarks principally addressed the polarised domestic public opinion within Iran regarding the efficacy and purpose of renewed negotiations with the U.S., and implicitly urged national unity. This is the main thing.
As for the future course of action, it is for the government to decide. President Masoud Pezeshkian who has prided himself on being a follower of the Leader since his time as lawmaker, is yet to react to Trump’s stated willingness to meet him.
Instead he echoed Khamenei’s sentiments tangentially: “We and our children are capable of creating a better future with what we have. We just need to believe in ourself and realise that we can. When we develop a deep and long-term vision, we can achieve and undertake the actions we desire.”
The government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani also took a tangential line in her post on X that the government will do its best to abide by the Leader’s directive and resonate a unified voice from Iran.
“While everyone is aware of the problems, today we need more unity and solidarity than yesterday to overcome these issues”, she wrote, adding at the same time, “Negotiations with European countries will continue, and everyone knows well that Iran will not engage in negotiations if they are dishonourable.”
Interestingly, Mohajerani also avoided making any direct reference to the Trump administration.
Evidently, the elites in Tehran are circling the wagons in anticipation of negotiations. Iran’s hardline Majlis Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf too affirmed Ayatollah Khamenei’s stance, asking his colleagues in the legislative body and other government branches to refrain from creating divisions.
“There should not be any duality here. The nature of the Leader’s remarks was firm, definitive, and different from the past.” [Emphasis added.]
The bottom line is that the diplomatic track led by the astute former career diplomat and ambassador, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (a former Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) official, by the way, is what needs to be watched closely. Araghchi is a veteran nuclear negotiator himself who had a key role in the talks leading to the JCPOA when he was Iran’s Deputy foreign minister during the administration of Hassan Rouhani..
What is most striking is that there is remarkable consistency in what Araghchi had said in a recent Sky News in an interview with its International Editor Dominic Waghorn some ten days ago and what he said today, two days after Khamenei spoke.
Indeed, the interview was conducted in the foreign ministry building in Tehran — an unusual gesture extended to a western editor. Waghorn has been one of the most experienced foreign correspondents in the West today, leading coverage in China, the Middle East and the U.S., who has interviewed Trump amongst other world leaders.
When Waghorn drew Araghchi’s attention to Trump’s recent hints that he would prefer a diplomatic solution — even saying a new deal with Iran would be “nice” — the top Iranian diplomat stated that although he was prepared to listen to the U.S. President, it would take a lot more than that for Iran to be convinced it should begin negotiations for a new deal.
As he put it, “The situation is different and much more difficult than the previous time. Lots of things should be done by the other side to buy our confidence… We haven’t heard anything but the ‘nice’ word, and this is obviously not enough.”
In sum, there is a trust deficit which first needs to be overcome and that initiative has to come from the White House. Nice words cannot be the basis of serious negotiations between to intractable adversaries.
Waghorn himself had commented,
“Iranians we spoke to on the streets of Tehran said they hoped a deal could be done with the West if it could lead to a lifting of sanctions and an improvement in Iran’s dire economic fortunes… Trust between Iran and America is also at rock bottom levels. Making progress towards any agreement and lifting sanctions will be enormously challenging.”
Now, fast forward. On Saturday evening in Tehran, the day after Khamenei spoke, Araghchi underscored, while addressing a gathering that included top officials and members of parliament, that the U.S. sanctions currently in place against the Iranian people are “cruel”, and they are a big obstacle in the way of Iran’s economic development, which needs to be lifted, but that has to be through negotiations and not the “maximum pressure” policies announced by Trump in his presidential memo on Feb. 7.
Araghchi said there are two tasks to be accomplished. The first one is to lift the sanctions through “negotiations and interaction with others.” The second one is to “nullify” the negative impact of the sanctions, which requires self-reliance, and is “prioritised” by the government and is also being regarded as a public duty.
Araghchi stressed: “Lifting the sanctions requires negotiations, but not under the maximum pressure policy. Negotiation cannot be carried out from a weak stance, as it will no longer be considered negotiation, but will be a kind of surrender. We never go to the negotiating table this way.”
That is to say, negotiations with the U.S. and the advancement of Iran’s agenda of “self-reliance” to mitigate the negative impact of the sanctions are not mutually exclusive or is not a binary issue, as some observers of Khamenei’s remarks might misconstrue, but can be mutually reinforcing.
However, the big question remains: Is Trump who is walking the talk, also willing to walk the walk? It needs a subtlety of mind and creative thinking to do that. The crux of the matter is that the Trump administration is packed with one-dimensional men — hawks and super hawks on Iran.
“However, the big question remains: Is Trump who is walking the talk, also willing to walk the walk? It needs a subtlety of mind and creative thinking to do that. The crux of the matter is that the Trump administration is packed with one-dimensional men — hawks and super hawks on Iran.” M.K. Bhadrakumar.
Knowing, “Hawks” are predatory birds, while “Doves” are peaceful. The owl asks, “If, Trump & Company are the “Hawks;” WHO’s the “Dove?” The bird tweets, “NOT, President Trump & Company!”AND, *“the wars they will be fought again. The holy dove, she will be caught again. Bought and sold, and bought again. The dove is never free.”
Considering, that President Trump is an unapologetic, tough-guy, “full of bluster & bravado,” whose “diplomacy” is arm twisting w/“nice words,” i.e., $anctions aka Social Murder, Resistance, Aggression; it’s NOT surprising, “it would take a lot more for Iran to begin negotiations with the U.S.” M.K. Bhadrakumar.
No doubt, Trump is a wanna be “powerful, proud, ‘Eagle,’ “fiercely protective of the boundaries of its territory.” However, imo, President Trump is a “Vulture” trolling the Middle East fi$hing for game!!! No doubt, what President Trump & Company have harvested is perpetual “war on the world order,” i.e., UN, NATO, WHO, USAID, UNSC, ICC, ICJ, Treaties, Agreements, Constitutions, etc. It’s universal! No one is safe. No one is immune of the wrath of Trump & Company’s “diplomacy,” executed, IMO, in the name of National Intere$ts, Corporations.
HEAR! HEAR!! “In sum, there is a trust deficit which first needs to be overcome and that initiative has to come from the White House. Nice words cannot be the basis of serious negotiations between to intractable adversaries.“ M.K. Bhadrakumar.
TY, M.K. Bhadrakumar, CN, et al., “Keep Your Head On a Swivel.”
* “Anthem,” Leonard Cohen
As long as US law allows subsequent POTUS to single-handedly ‘UNsign’ international treaties (ie; recall ‘W’ doing that during his tenure, for example), why would any foreign leader put ANY faith in the possible continuity of such treaties?
The biggest problem in the Middle East is Israel. The biggest problem in the U.S. vis-a-vis Israel is the rending of the fabric of our democracy to accommodate genocide and ethnic cleansing, looking the other way when it occurs and giving excuses to Jews because of what happened to them 80 years ago. One should not forget Jonathan Pollard but one should remember Helen Thomas more because she was punished by Jews for a simple statement of opinion.
If it weren’t for the neocons/Israel and the Zionists this would not be an issue.
Dog, give me strength!
Israel is The reason for this obscenity.
Making the obscenity go away is simple.
Trump will not be the solutions here.
The one crucial item missing from this excellent article is that while, yes, Iran has learned through bitter experience that US agreements (or agreements with any great power, for that matter) are not to be trusted, the Iran of 2025 is NOT the Iran of 2015 economically.
Iran is dealing with runaway inflation to the point where basic food and home items are unaffordable for the great majority of the population, electric and gas power generation is totally inadequate ad unreliable with regular cuts to industry and people, its security partners in Syria and Lebanon has been decimated, and its BRICS partners have not been able to fill the gap made from the loss of trade to the west.
So Iran is desperate … now, a good negotiator does not allow desperation to show and Iranians are excellent negotiators. But the fact is that they MUST have a deal or some way to break out of their economic jam or the regime’s days are numbered. The great fiction of self reliance is just that: if it worked, they would already not be in the state they are now.
The one crucial item that is missing from this comment is that with the imposition of the Trump administration’s maximum sanctions against Iran in 2015 Iran’s oil exports effectively fell to zero. However, Iran has been able to circumvent the sanctions. Currently, despite the sanctions, Iran’s daily export of oil is close to two million barral, of which 1.3 million go to China. Does Iran have serious economic problems? Yes. However, not all of these problems are due to the sanctions. Many people in Iran (including prominent economists and experts) believe that Iran’s economic issues are rooted in corruption, mismanagement, recent economic austerity measures and in general neoliberal policies of different administrations. If the Iranian leadership has shown confidence in dealing with Trump is mainly due to the fact that Iran has been able to circumvent the American sanctions and it knows that despite the challenges that Iran is facing, as in the past, it will be able to deal with them without surrendering to the US dictates.
Hmmm, so Trump being back, wouldn’t the max sanctions be back and Iran’s sales to China et al ended? That’s what happened last time. All it will take is some well-placed Trump threats and China will quietly tell its small refineries (the ones that are buying Iran oil at a discount) to temporarily pause. This is something Biden let slip, btw, thus the ability to sell. The economy will collapse further.
As for corruption, I agree. But barring a wholesale change of govt from the current Leader (upon whose decisions the entire country turns), who seems VERY unlikely to make any change at all since his power is based on his ability to dole out and balance funds and power to security interests, there will be no change.
The economy is circling the drain. No amount of nonsense about “neoliberal” policies will change these facts. Russia and China are NOT riding to the rescue … they are merely picking up some cheap bargains. Khamenei’s Syria/Lebanon gamble has cratered. Hundreds of billions of $ have been wasted. Changes are a’coming …
The USA has proven itself agreement adverse time after time. It cannot be trusted and any agreement will be worthless. The barbarians are at the gates, the USA and Israel will settle for nothing less than complete destruction and control of Iran – look at Syria or Libya !
The case of north Korea demonstrates that the acquisition of nuclear weapons is one sure way to fend off the western agenda and guarantee survival. Either through developing their own capabilities or through persuading Russia to place weapons in Iran is a much better and safer path than USA agreements.
You can forget about negotiations with America. They say one thing and then do another thing. As the Red Indians said a century ago. White man speak with forked tongues.
The CIA has for many years assessed that Iran is not trying to develop nukes.
That is, Iran being punished for something that they have not done and have no wish to do in future.
IMO, they should tell Trump that they will build a nuke unless the US drops all talk of sanctions.
With the US, it always comes back to the issue of trust, or rather the lack of trust. Not even the US’ so-called friends and allies can ‘trust’ it not to act against their interests (witness Germany and the Nord Stream pipeline).
Iran is right to be cautious about any possible deal with the US, considering that the western establishments have all been antagonistic towards it for a long time – as part of their pro-Israeli loyalties.
So, what are the chances that a post-Trump administration will renege on the ‘deal’? I’d say, very high indeed.