Kiev’s counterattack will go ahead to gain back at least some of the lost territory, writes M.K. Bhadrakumar. This is a desperate throw of the dice.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, in center rear behind soldiers, paid tribute to fallen Ukrainian soldiers on St Michael’s Square in central Kiev on April 20. (NATO)
By M.K. Bhadrakumar
Peoples Dispatch
Russian President Vladimir Putin travelled to the country’s “new territories” of Lugansk and the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions last week to assess the military situation.
The countdown has begun for the Ukrainian “counterattack.” The arrival of Patriot missile system in Ukraine testifies to the scale of mobilization to impose heavy losses on Russia. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg just paid a surprise visit to Kiev, his first since the war began.
The leaked Pentagon documents are skeptical about the success of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, but Moscow makes its own assessments. Primarily, the neocons are not going to pull the plug on the Zelensky regime, since that means opening the Pandora’s box while President Joe Biden is announcing his bid for a second term as president and cannot accept that Ukraine is losing the war.
In reality, Ukraine is hemorrhaging. It is in the nature of attritional wars that at some point, the weaker side breaks and thereupon, the end comes very fast. This is how it was in Syria where — once the five-year old Battle of Aleppo was won in December 2016 — government forces swept through the country in a string of military victories bringing the curtain down on the conflict.
The attritional war in Ukraine may look “stalemated” but the clincher will be which side is inflicting the greater casualties. There is no question that the massive military, intelligence, financial and economic assistance by the West notwithstanding, Russian forces have ground down the Ukrainian side all along the line of contact.
The Russian ambassador to the U.K. recently said the ratio of losses in the attrition war is roughly seven Ukrainian soldiers to every Russian soldier. To put things in perspective, Western media reports estimate that around 35,000 Ukrainian soldiers will be involved in the upcoming counter-offensive along the 950-km frontline while Putin is on record that the Russian reserve forces on the frontline come to 160,000 soldiers.
The Ukrainian air defense system is in a critical state. Russians have a predominance of artillery and have heavily fortified the frontline in the recent five-to-six months with multiple layers of defense such as mines, earthworks and bollards to impede advancing tanks.
Russia’s Fortification Line
Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, arrives at headquarters of the Dnepr Group of Forces, Kherson Oblast, April 17, 2023. (Kremlin)
This is a desperate gambit for Ukraine, which has lost a large share of its most experienced soldiers (estimated 120,000 casualties), to take on the Russians who have superiority in missiles, air defense, artillery and, above all, trained manpower.
The areas that Putin chose to visit — Kherson / Zaporozhya and Lugansk — are where the Ukrainian counteroffensive is most expected. Putin heard from the commanders about the military situation and, of course, most certainly, that will provide input for his decisions on Russian counter-strategies, both defensive and offensive.
Despite the Pentagon leaks and the ensuing disarray and confusion in Washington and European capitals (and Kiev), the Ukrainian counterattack will go ahead to gain back at least some of the lost territory. This is a desperate throw of the dice.
However, delusional thinking still prevails in Washington. This is apparent from what two veterans of the U.S. establishment — former State Department official Richard Haass and Charles Kupchan, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations — wrote recently in Foreign Affairs. Their article, The West Needs a New Strategy in Ukraine: A Plan for Getting From the Battlefield to the Negotiating Table, largely sticks to the myths spawned by the neocons, that Russia’s special military operations failed and the war has “turned out far better for Ukraine than most predicted.”
But it also contains flashes of realism. It builds on the refrain currently in vogue in Washington that “the most likely outcome of the conflict is not a complete Ukrainian victory but a bloody stalemate.”
Haas and Kupchan wrote that
“By the time Ukraine’s anticipated offensive is over, Kyiv may also warm up to the idea of a negotiated settlement, having given its best shot on the battlefield and facing growing constraints on both its own manpower and help from abroad.”
The authors take note en passe that Russia’s leadership has options and calculations too, as Western sanctions have failed to cripple Russian economy, popular support for the war remains high (above 70 percent) and Moscow senses that time is on its side as the staying power of Ukraine and its Western supporters and their resolve will wane and Russia should be able to expand its territorial gains substantially.
NATO’s Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting on April 21. (NATO)
Fundamentally, Haas and Kupchan hail from another planet. They cannot comprehend that Russia will never accept a scenario where the conflict ends with a ceasefire but NATO will continue to beef up Ukraine’s military capabilities and steadily integrate Kiev into the alliance.
Why would Russia want to play another game of musical chairs while the West formalizes Ukraine’s NATO membership — that is, acquiesce in a replay of the grotesque interregnum between Minsk Agreements of 2015 and Russia’s special military operations?
Putin’s visit to the new territories at this crucial juncture with the attritional war at a tipping point conveys a powerful signal that Russia too has an offensive plan and it is not up to Biden to blow the whistle and call off the proxy war — out of sheer fatigue or pressing distractions in the Asia-Pacific or due to cracks in the Western unity or whatever else.
Ukrainian oblasts annexed by Russia since 2014 (Crimea) and 2022 (others). The 2022 annexation creates the equivalent of a strategic land bridge between Crimea and Russia. (SyntaxTerror, Public domain, Wikimedia Commons)
Equally, it is improbable that Russia can ever reconcile with the Zelensky regime, which Moscow sees as a puppet of the Biden administration. But how can Biden possibly dump or lose sight of Zelensky while the skeletons are rattling in the family cupboard?
Most importantly, Russian public opinion expects Putin to redeem the pledge he made while ordering the special military operations. Anything short of that will mean tens of thousands of Russian lives perished in vain.
It is not in the grain of Putin’s political personality to ignore the groundswell of Russian opinion — or overlook the wounded national psyche as images are playing out of forced eviction of hundreds of monks of Pechersk Lavra, the 11th-century Orthodox cave monastery complex in the heart of Kiev, branded as Russian fifth columnists. It was a calculated political move by Zelensky with tacit Western encouragement, (see here and here).
Kiev Pechersk Lavra complex. (Falin, CC BY-SA 3.0, Wikimedia Commons)
What the neocons in the U.S. are yet to grasp is that they failed to subjugate Russia despite all the humiliations poured on its national honor, proud history and enviously rich culture. Why would Russia normalize with states that appropriated its sovereign wealth and imposed such draconian sanctions to bleed and weaken its economy?
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has admitted on CNN that sanctions may ultimately risk hegemony of the U.S. dollar. But her remarks do not go far enough.
Meanwhile, the Russian-Chinese strategic partnership has strengthened, the signal this week being Moscow’s willingness to coordinate with Beijing to counter military challenges in the Far East.
[Related: China & Russia Circle Wagons in Asia-Pacific]
Russia is far from isolated and enjoys strategic depth in the international community. Whereas, during the last year, the systemic decline of the West and the waning of U.S. global influence has become an inexorable historical process.
MK Bhadrakumar is a former diplomat. He was India’s ambassador to Uzbekistan and Turkey. The views are personal.
This article originally appeared on Indian Punchline.
The views expressed are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of Consortium News.
A Timely Recommendation
Perhaps it’s time for Americans to actually listen to, and pay attention to what the highly decorated U.S. Marine General, Smedley Butler wrote, from the inside, about war.
hxxps://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=war+is+a+racket+audio
The problem for this Ukrainian counter-offensive are the Russian FAB-500 bombs which now can also be glided to a target.
These 500kg bombs can create a crater with a diameter of 50 metres and hole of 10 metres, thus any mechanised movement will be easy prey. These bombs are from the Soviet era and the Russians have them in abundance… and they are very cheap to make.
Apparently the Russians have also started using the FAB-1000 (the 1 tone bomb) with a flash that can be seen 20km away and which looks almost like a mushroom cloud from an atomic bomb. There are also reports of FAB-1500 being made…
With 3 lines of defences along the front line, I am still at awe that a counter-offensive from Ukraine is even considered.
The losses will be enormous.
There will likely be one million dead Ukrainians by the time this cynical spectacle winds down. Nuland, Blinken, Sullivan, Austin and Biden will happily live out their lives in wealth and comfort while the people of Ukraine will forever grieve the price they paid for NATO’s arrogance, hubris and indifference. May the true war criminals Biden, Scholz, Baerbock, Stoltenberg, Borrell, Von der Leyen and BoJo be forever cursed and haunted by the real ghosts of Kiev.
Cynical is the correct word to use James. But we shouldn’t stop at your list of names; we can add george w bush and tony blair and a host of others.
Solzhenitsyn: “We have to condemn publicly the very idea that some people have the right to repress others. In keeping silent about evil, in burying it so deep within us that no sign of it appears on the surface, we are implanting it, and it will rise up a thousandfold in the future.” (The Gulag Archipelago, Volume 1)
Great words and great truths.
In the words of the Alerksandr Solzhenitsyn, “Unlimited power in the hands of limited people always leads to cruelty.” And: “Look for the brave in prison, and the stupid among the political leaders!” (Both from The Gulag Archipelago, Volume 2)
“the stupid among the political leaders!”
We don’t have to look very far for that.
One doesn’t have to be a military expert to know that Ukraine never had a chance to beat the Russians, even with massive Nato support. The Russians have escalatory dominance because its an existential issue to them. The Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine near the border with Russia are probably the only place on the planet where even Nato couldn’t beat the Russians because of Russian superiority in air defenses and hypersonic missile technology. All those costly flying machines the US has built would just be blown out of the sky.
The question is were do we go from here? Will the US hegemon admit defeat and roll back its global military presence like a beaten dog with its tail between the legs? Or will the US go for the ultimate weapon to defend its hegemony? To use nuclear weapons is the only way for Nato to avoid a defeat in Ukraine.
“Or will the US go for the ultimate weapon to defend its hegemony?”
Surely that would be counter-productive Humwawa. (But we have to admit it’s been used before; twice even.)
Sergei Lavrov’s recent comments make the position even more stark. EVEN IF the Uke offensive achieved all its aims (extremely unlikely as most now realize) why on earth would that make Russia give up???It would make the Russians even more determined, because as at the end of 2021 explained by President Putin, this is an existential issue for Russia, it cannot withdraw any further into its own land (threatened to its borders by NATO who admit it is an enemy they are trying to destroy) and it has not yet achieved the stated aims of the SMO. Why stop and lose all???Russia will not.
I truly feel for the average Ukrainian…being used as fodder in a war that NATO – while bragging, will cowardly sneak away.
2 AM, 27 Apr 23, Reports that Ukraine has attacked airport in St. Petersburg, Kershon and other targets in RUSSIA. Putin taken post haste to the Kremlin. This is not simply an attempt to reclaim Ukrainian land. Zelensky possibly trying to drag the US and Nato into a nuclear war directly with Russia. If he can’t win then nobody can, as nuclear war will guarantee our extinction. Does the world make it even to May Day?
A UAF offensive would be military — and also political– madness. In the last four months, the UAF has lots up to 40,000 men , perhaps more along the contact line, especially in Bakhmut and Kremenaya. And a lot of equipment near Kherson City. The Russians have diminished the effectiveness of UAF AD systems, including manpads and can now use airpower more freely. New weapons, especially glide bombs and EW upgrades are accelerating their destruction of UAF equipment and manpower. In addition, the Russians have a new army of 350,000 now fully trained and equipped troops waiting in the wings. And the areas that the UAF might attack are fully fortified,An attack on Crimea would lead to destruction of whatever army the UAF might assemble and also lead to the loss of Odessa.
Of course, the US may press the UAF to attack anyway– just go get the war over. An off ramp so they can switch focus to China. The Media would switch the narrative, Ukraine would be abandoned like Aghanistan.
Some of the Warshiton Warmongers are downplaying the much hyped “counteroffensive”; and saying that this is a testing ground for the upcoming confrontation with China. It’s a good way to boost windfall profits at the Military/WMD/Espionage Complex as well. Ukrainians are merely cannon fodder.
The author makes a good outline of the situation, but often uses the term “neocon”. These folks are not neo, and they are not con.
Some call them “liberal interventionists”, these are euphemisms. Using accurate language is important: warmongers, imperialists, aggressors, or even suicidal nutjobs.
They are not of the old-school Realists, like Stephen Walt or Henry K., but they are a different flavor of imperialist warmonger. Call them what you will but neocon is not accurate at all.
The original “NeoConservatives” were the PNAC gang that called for a New Pearl Harbor, shortly before the “9/11” events. (See Project for the New American Century). Cheney, Pearl, Wolfowitz and the gang were almost all “Republicans”, these people are so-called Democrats as well. They all serve both D and R factions of the Oligarchy
You may have missed how the neocons migrated from the Republican to the Democratic Party during the 2016 campaign so that today “liberal interventionists” and “neocons” are indistinguishable.
Sorry if I was confusing: that’s my point. They are all imperialist warmongers
“Using accurate language is important: warmongers, imperialists, aggressors, or even suicidal nutjobs.”
I like the suicidal nutjobs. Selfish, egotistical, arrogant, ignorant, hypocrites i call them.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock: “We are fighting a war against Russia, and not against each other.”
Putin should pins her statement on bulletin boards in every military barracks in Russia.
Yes: Operation Barbarossa 2.0
It is a shame or crime that so many politicians are inciting their peoples against Russia (and thus into death), but these + many other statements of Baerbock are not her statements.
She is a very stupid and incapable of anything, like von der Leyen who said: “Russia must pay”.
Such statement are the words and dictates of the USA government, which these chickens + many other EU or NATO politicians only repeat.
An Old U.S. strategic goal is to smash Russia and then plunder the vast Siberian mineral resources. Even H. Kissinger (after his retirement) has reported about that.
It is (almost) always about earth resources.
It is a shame or crime that so many politicians are inciting their peoples against Russia (and thus into death), but these + many other statements of Baerbock are not really her statements.
She is a very stupid and incapable of anything, like von der Leyen who said: “Russia must pay”.
Such statement are the words and dictates of the USA government, which these chickens + many other EU or NATO politicians only repeat.
An Old U.S. strategic goal is to smash Russia and then plunder the vast Siberian mineral resources. Even H. Kissinger (after his retirement) has reported about that.
It is (almost) always about earth resources.
The Patriot missile system will not (and cannot) “impose heavy losses on Russia”. It is a defensive system designed to shoot down incoming rockets and airplanes. It is folly to view the prospects for victory on one side or the other based on losses to date. We don’t have accurate figures for either side. There are two more or less certainties: Ukraine has been pummeled. Entire villages, towns and cities have been wiped out, and the civilian suffering has been heartbreaking. As for Russia, already the largest country in the world, it may well expand some more, but at what cost? Cemeteries are popping up all over Russia – just this week more than 200 freshly-dug graves were photographed for the first time in Novosibirsk. Many Russian corpses have been left behind in Ukraine. More than 700,000 draft-age men have left Russia. The auto and aviation industries in Russia are at a standstill. Russian history is replete with dark moments. This is likely another.
The whole world is replete with dark moments. But non so dark as those we do not anticipate.
That is the calm before the storm.
Very soon, things will move at breakneck speed and overrun the NATO.
Very soon, things will move at a breakneck pace and overrun the NATO.
The use of depleted uranium weapons against the Russian-held territories is a tacit admission by western nations that ukraine will not regain that territory. They are deliberately contaminating that land because they know it’s Russia’s now.
The evil prelude will soon be over, and the real storm with horrific weapons will overrun the NATO – although only a few can imagine it today.
It’s callous cruel and sadistic the way in which Blinken, Sullivan and Nuland are sacrificing tens of thousands of Ukrainian young men.
The evil prelude will soon be over, and then the true and greatest villains you mentioned, as well as their overseers and principals, will fall victim.
They are also so deluded that they do not realize the terrible reputation this will give to the USA and especially the “Democratic party” causing this onslaught. They seem incapable of rational thought and yet are given huge power by the Biden maladministration.
The US, unwilling to accept its role as primus inter pares, decided to keep rolling the dice for the whole enchilada. This is where the US learns not only that they don’t love us everywhere we go but also that the world is neither clamoring for or even interested in a US overlord. The consequences will be painful. No, we’re not the greatest thing since pizza and canned beer and we’re about to find out about the exorbitant privilege that DeGaulle talked about.
“But how can Biden possibly dump or lose sight of Zelensky while the skeletons are rattling in the family cupboard?” My guess is that Zelensky has a vast dossier on the Bidens’ maleficence in Ukraine. Unlike the Steele dossier, Zelensky’s dossier would convict Biden beyond doubt. Might it be that Biden is Zelensky’s puppet?
I think now it’s all male posturing. Like apes in the jungle vying for dominance. Incredible to think we haven’t really reached the ground yet from out of those trees. Even more incredible is the fact these apes share 98.4% of our DNA. I can’t reconcile with your “dossier” theory though. Zelensky is for me, a convenient idiot.
For all of these reasons and more is why the US is absolutely NOT exceptional. Every mistake ever made throughout history by past cultures, societies, and empires, the US makes in spades. The first of course is hubris, and the second is blind arrogance.
Also, never has a power been handed such an opportunity TO BE exceptional – the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War – and not just let it slip through its fingers, but actually fling it away from the body politic (GHW Bush: “There will be NO peace dividend!”)
The collapse of the US and all that it believed it could hold on to forever, is a collapse of free choice. It didn’t have to be this way.
The new pentagon leaks as connected to the neo-cons/libs for more war action is suggested by news of a new resolution to hit Congress on increasing support for Ukraine to retrieve lands lost in the conflict, specifically Crimea.
xttps://news.antiwar.com/2023/04/25/house-resolution-would-declare-us-policy-is-to-seek-ukrainian-victory/
This appears to be a sign of desperation and stupidity.
As MK Bhadrakumar says:
“Russia is far from isolated and enjoys strategic depth in the international community. Whereas, during the last year, the systemic decline of the West and the waning of U.S. global influence has become an inexorable historical process.”
Right on. Clear and realistic. Judge Napolitano is probably correct in his investigations of Jack Teixeira, with the latest via Col. Shaffer (Monday) that it’s most likely that a senior intell person used the kid to convey documents into the chat rooms (now for at least the past year) to accelerate the war, not as an off-ramp for Biden to get out of it.
xttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gm8hDuuZYgk&t=7s
Previously Phil Giraldi and Scott Ritter (on Napolitano’s blog) suggested Jack Teixeira might have been acting on his own, and what with a lax supervision system got away with this under the noses of his superiors. Why he did this, with this theory, not clear, unless it was for bragging rights of some sort, or from a super-patriot gung-ho for more military action.
Larry Johnson (VIPS/ex-CIA) suggests this recent intel leak was deliberate from within. He explains how the intel was virtually impossible to obtain in any way from the outside – it was there only for a small tightly controlled loop. The implication being that the less than rosy scenario for Ukraine would prepare the American mind for an eventual US ‘off ramp’ to extricate itself from the mess.
……. It is compelling, though, who the hell really knows what’s going on?? ………… Politically, all the US/NATO players involved are putting on a brace face with declarations of unyielding support for the war’s continuation. Perhaps plans for a withdrawal are known to only a handful of people.
In any event, it’s good to read this analysis of Russia’s position. Indeed, Putin needs to push on with his advantage. Something he should’ve learned years ago is that US/NATO can NOT be trusted. He must reclaim eastern Ukraine and fortify the border in a way that leaves no doubt about his resolve to maintain the region. ……. And, any future settlement must include an iron clad agreement ——–> No NATO for Ukraine. Perhaps if Russia pushes on and there are devastating losses that decimate Ukie forces, Putin can force NATO to rescind Finland’s membership, too. ………This would seem necessary for Russia’s long term security.
A vital part of Russia’s SMO was the de-Nazification of Ukraine. A worthy goal, no doubt. I just don’t see how this could be attained. ….It’d take Putin’s complete takeover of the entirety of Ukraine, just for starts.
I wish China would make its alliance with Russia loud and proud by pledging military support for Russia in Ukraine, if requested.
………US imperialism MUST be halted in Ukraine. …….. One thing is certain——-> working people will not be benefitting from whoever prevails. But, first things first – Yankee go home!!!
Yes, we have Napolitano exploring several ideas here with the off-ramp theory competing against the leaks to encourage more Ukraine support theory (see new resolution to Congress in my first note above). Possibly we’re seeing a last-ditch effort to boost the war versus a plan for withdrawal, which to me still seems wishful thinking after all the propaganda. I.E. it seems too easy following all the bluster, including from Nuland. Perhaps there will be a devastating sudden wilt on all the support Ukraine forever talk, but that would be hugely deflationary to Biden’s announcement to run again. I sense something’s cooking, and it could also relate to Tucker Carlson’s being fired, which the Alexanders on The Duran speculated today was due to his hosting RF Kennedy Jr a couple of days back.
Yes, both theories are in play for why this info was deliberately leaked. we shall see.
…… Reasons for Carlson’s firing run the gamut, too. Is he being punished for costing Fox hundreds of millions of dollars for his bs about Dominion? …….. perhaps that’s part of it. …….Methinks Carlson’s questioning aspects of the US imperium was making Fox executives nervous. His guests included Sy Hersh about the Nord Stream sabotage, as well as Aaron Mate, Glenn Greenwald and, as you noted, RFK Jr.
It’s an important reminder that the culture wars ginned up to divide working people promoted by the entire political class and corporate media outlets are ALL us peons are s’posed to be dwelling on. ………When it comes to US militarism and imperial aims, the entire corporate mediascape as well as the whole body politic better stand at attention and salute the flag…….or else.
The Ukraine Proxy War over the lives of the poor Ukrainian peole to take down Russia and pillage its vast resources has failed and flags the final collapse of the Neocon’s short-lived “American Century.”
President Zelenskyy is a criminal and soon enough may he be a dead criminal.
He has sold out his armed forces and he has sold out the poor Ukrainian people, as indeed have they been sold out by Washington in their poorly constructed Proxy War.
Remember what they said, all that was written, especially the London Mainstream Media, for if a fraction of it was true, Russia would have by now collapsed.
__________
The lesson of The Ukraine – Act as a Washington vassal, be destroyed.
Finland is lining itself up for that lesson. Of Norway, way back.
As for The Ukraine . . .
The Real War has started, the battlefield is littered with hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel and the Western Media cut their coverage. Remember this – The Russian Armed Forces will take Kyiv. And so . . .
Narrative Collapse – – –
Only when the last American artillery shell has been fired in The Ukraine, only when the last Ukrainian soldier has been killed in The Ukraine and only when the last of Ukrainian state territory has been irretrievably lost from The Ukraine will The Americans and Europeans finally realize that God Favours Russia . . .
Excellent assessment of the situation. The West is delusional to think that Russia would ever go back to the negotiating table with admitted liars. The West now can assume that Russia and China will never turn to the negotiating table as a way of solving international issues. Now Russia and China will solve those problems on the ground and there is little the West can do to counter that.
The western sanctions on Russia have had the opposite effect and now we “vassals” of that west are subject to this:
“People urged by Bank of England economist to ‘accept’ being poorer”
Sky News 26 april
(Do we have a choice Mr. Pill?) Pill is the chief economist for the BoE, but i bet he isn’t affected much by this latest misadventure.
This piece by Mr. Bhadrakumar hits all the high notes: NATO is deluded: It has no interest nor understanding of what motivates Russia. It cares not about the sacrifice of tens of thousands of Ukrainians (not to mention Russian lives); The arrogant and delusional U.S. remains puppet master; and Russia will not settle for less than meeting its original goals: de Nazify the Donbas and secure the safety for formerly Russian-speaking Ukrainians, now members of the Russian Federation.