In effect, Bush is gambling that the Right’s
powerful media apparatus, Republican organizational advantages and the
residual fear from the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks will trump the
Democrats’ abilities to convince the American people that Bush’s vision
represents a dire threat to the future of their democratic Republic.
Bush unveiled his new strategy for holding onto
Republican congressional majorities this past week by making his demand
for expansive powers, including the authority to deny habeas corpus
rights to detainees, the preeminent issue in the final days before the
congressional recess.
Bush also blasted Democrats for criticizing his
handling of the Iraq War.
“Five years after 9/11, the worst attack on the
American homeland in our history, the Democrats offer nothing but
criticism and obstruction and endless second-guessing,” Bush told a GOP
fundraising event in Birmingham, Alabama, on Sept. 28. “The party of
F.D.R. and the party of Harry Truman has become the party of cut and
run.”
So, instead of what Republican strategists had
described as their plan for localizing the congressional races and
“disqualifying” Democratic candidates through attack ads that
highlighted ethical lapses and “bad votes” on hot-button issues, the
final five weeks of Campaign 2006 now appear focused on Bush’s
stewardship of the “war on terror.”
One Democratic strategist said this revised
Republican approach reflected more necessity than desire. He said Bush
simply recognized that the election already had become “nationalized”
and that he had no choice but to engage in a spirited defense of his
national security policies.
Still, despite a “nationalized” campaign, a number
of key races are likely to turn on local issues and questions about the
ethics of candidates. Ethical questions about New Jersey Sen. Robert
Menendez could mean a possible Republican pick-up, while Virginia Sen.
George Allen’s racially insensitive remarks could cost the GOP that
seat.
Though most political observers expect Democrats to
gain ground on Nov. 7, it remains doubtful that they will win a majority
in either the House or the Senate. Analysts, however, generally believe
that Democrats benefit if the election turns into a national referendum
on Bush’s presidency.
What’s at Stake
The big question is how many voters understand the
larger implications of Bush’s vow to stay on “the offensive” against
Muslim militants, whom he calls “Islamic fascists.”
Beyond battling al-Qaeda, the terrorist group
behind 9/11, Bush has expanded what he once called his “crusade” to
include victory in Iraq and the elimination of other Muslim leaders
lumped in the “terrorist” camp, such as the governments of Iran and
Syria and militant movements Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in
Palestine.
Bush’s vision effectively sets the United States on
course to wage what his neoconservative advisers call “World War III,” a
battle against Islamic militants from the Atlantic coast of north Africa
to Indonesia and the Pacific Ocean.
Yet, given the anti-Americanism sweeping the
Islamic world, this war is almost certain to pit U.S. forces against
substantial numbers of the world’s one billion Muslims. That was the
significance of the newly disclosed National Intelligence Estimate,
which concluded that the Iraq War has created a new generation of
jihadists ready to fight the United States.
So, when Americans go to the polls on Nov. 7, they
will be voting whether to give a green light to a widening international
conflict that will surely lead to large numbers of casualties on all
sides, drain the U.S. Treasury and require more political repression,
most likely spelling the end of the country as a democratic Republic
based on the rule of law.
Those stakes were made clear in the past week by
Bush’s demands for immediate congressional approval of a law granting
him extraordinary powers for detaining and punishing terror suspects,
legislation that the New York Times editorial page called “rushing off a
cliff.”
“Here’s what happens when this irresponsible
Congress railroads a profoundly important bill to serve the mindless
politics of a midterm election: The Bush administration uses
Republicans’ fear of losing their majority to push through ghastly ideas
about antiterrorism that will make American troops less safe and do
lasting damage to our 217-year-old nation of laws – while actually doing
nothing to protect the nation from terrorists,” the Times editorial
said.
Among the bill’s flaws, the editorial cited:
--“a dangerously broad definition of ‘illegal enemy
combatant’ [that] could subject legal residents of the United States, as
well as foreign citizens living in their own countries, to summary
arrest and indefinite detention with no hope of appeal.”
--repudiation of “a half century of international
precedent by allowing Mr. Bush to decide on his own what abusive
interrogation methods he considered permissible.”
--elimination of habeas corpus for detainees
“who would lose the basic right to challenge their imprisonment.”
--removal of judicial review, so “the courts would
have no power to review any aspect of this new system, except verdicts
by military tribunals. … All Mr. Bush would have to do to lock anyone up
forever is to declare him an illegal combatant and not have a trial.”
--use of coerced evidence against a defendant “if a
judge considered it reliable – already a contradiction in terms – and
relevant.”
--tolerance of torture through a definition that
“is unacceptably narrow, a virtual reprise of the deeply cynical memos
the administration produced after 9/11.” [NYT, Sept. 28, 2006]
Nevertheless, the House and Senate – voting largely
along party lines – granted these extraordinary powers to Bush.
While some lawmakers expressed hope that the U.S.
Supreme Court would again reject the detainee legislation as
unconstitutional, the political reality is that Bush is within one vote
on the nine-member court of gaining a majority that would endorse his
assertion of virtually unlimited presidential powers.
If the Republicans retain control of the Senate,
Bush might well have the opportunity to appoint another justice to line
up with Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Antonin Scalia, Clarence
Thomas and Samuel Alito.
Even so-called Republican “moderates” – such as
Sens. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, John McCain of Arizona and John Warner of
Virginia – made clear in their votes on the detainee bill that they will
bend to Bush’s will.
Epic War
After Nov. 7 – assuming a Republican victory –
there will be little to stand in the way of Bush’s vision of an epic war
against Muslim militants that goes far beyond al-Qaeda and even the
Iraqi insurgency.
“As we continue to fight al-Qaeda and these Sunni
extremists inspired by their radical ideology, we also face the threat
posed by Shia extremists, who are learning from al-Qaeda, increasing
their assertiveness and stepping up their threats,” Bush said in a
speech on Sept. 5.
“This Shia strain of Islamic radicalism is just as
dangerous, and just as hostile to America, and just as determined to
establish its brand of hegemony across the broader Middle East,” Bush
continued. “And the Shia extremists have achieved something that al-Qaeda
has so far failed to do: In 1979, they took control of a major power,
the nation of Iran, subjugating its proud people to a regime of tyranny,
and using that nation’s resources to fund the spread of terror and
pursue their radical agenda.”
Bush also cited his determination to defeat
Hezbollah, a Shiite movement in Lebanon that is now a prominent part of
the elected Lebanese government and broadly popular because its militia
battled the Israeli army when it invaded Lebanon in July.
Bush referred to Hezbollah’s leader as “the
terrorist Nasrallah,” suggesting the United States has joined Israel in
its determination to kill Sheikh Sayyad Hassan Nasrallah who was rated
the most respected leader in the Middle East by an August 2006 opinion
poll in Egypt, which is considered one of Washington’s staunchest
regional allies.
Ranked second in that Egyptian poll was Iran’s
president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, another target of the Bush
administration. By contrast, Egypt’s pro-American president Hosni
Mubarak wasn’t even in the top 10, coming in 11th. Polls
across the Middle East also have shown almost universal disapproval of
the Bush administration and its policies.
So, Bush has set the United States on course to
battle not only the stateless terrorists of al-Qaeda and the stubborn
insurgents in Iraq but Islamic political leaders who have widespread
support among the Muslim masses. How the United States would win such a
war or even assemble the vast numbers of soldiers needed is hard to
comprehend.
This so-called “long war,” which Bush’s followers
hail as “World War III,” would mean fighting large portions of a
religious movement that has the allegiance of about one-sixth of the
planet’s population.
Muslims are concentrated in nations from northern
Africa to East Asia, but also include large numbers in Europe and North
America.
Nevertheless, in his Sept. 5 address, Bush talked
bravely about how confident he is that the United States will win this
war. “America will not bow down to tyrants,” he declared to applause.
Bush’s experience over the past five years,
however, suggests that his strategy would require a full-scale
transformation of the United States into a warrior nation, committed to
an endless struggle against any and all Islamic extremists who harbor
thoughts of power, no matter how fanciful those imaginings might be.
A key point in Bush’s argument is that al-Qaeda has
expressed a dream of creating a “caliphate” reaching from Spain to
Indonesia. Bush described the steps to this empire as starting with
“numerous, decentralized operating bases across the world, from which
they can plan new attacks, and advance their vision of a unified,
totalitarian Islamic state that can confront and eventually destroy the
free world.”
But the reality is that prior to Bush’s presidency,
al-Qaeda was a marginal movement in the Islamic world, driven out of
countries across northern Africa, hounded by secular governments in the
Middle East, and expelled even from the Sudan.
In summer 2001, as Bush brushed aside CIA warnings
about bin Laden’s plans to strike inside the United States, al-Qaeda
leaders were holed up in caves in Afghanistan, literally chased to the
ends of the earth.
Then, after the 9/11 attacks on New York and
Washington – and the U.S. counterattack in Afghanistan – bin Laden fled
to the mountains of Tora Bora where he apologized to his followers for
leading them to what looked like defeat both militarily and politically,
since the vast majority of Muslims had condemned the 9/11 attacks.
At that crucial moment, the Saudi terrorist leader
set off on horseback along with a small band of supporters and was
surprised to find that Bush hadn’t ordered in U.S. troops to cut off al-Qaeda’s
escape routes. Bush already was shifting his focus to Iraq, which was
governed by a secular dictator who had persecuted Islamic extremists
like bin Laden. [See, for instance, Ron Suskind’s account in The One
Percent Doctrine.]
Military Blunder
The failure to trap or kill bin Laden at Tora Bora
might rank as one of modern history’s worst military blunders. But in
his Sept. 5 speech, Bush instead cited other historical failures – what
he called missed opportunities to eliminate Lenin and Hitler when they
were living in obscurity and writing about their improbable dreams of
power.
“In the early 1900s, an exiled lawyer in Europe
published a pamphlet called ‘What Is To Be Done?’ – in which he laid out
his plans to launch a communist revolution in Russia,” Bush said. “The
world did not heed Lenin’s words, and paid a terrible price. …
“In the 1920s, a failed Austrian painter published
a book in which he explained his intention to build an Aryan super-state
in Germany and take revenge on Europe and eradicate the Jews. The world
ignored Hitler’s words, and paid a terrible price.”
But the problem with Bush’s history lesson is that
wiping out some future Lenin or Hitler would require killing or
imprisoning anyone who wrote about political change in a way that rulers
considered objectionable at that time. While “predictive assassination”
might eliminate a Lenin or a Hitler, it also might kill a Mandela or a
Jefferson.
What Bush appears to be advocating is the end of
free speech and free thought, or at least the regulation and punishment
of speech and thought that he disdains. Bush is extending his concept of
“preemptive war” – launching attacks against countries that might
present a future threat to the United States – to “preemptive thought
control,” eliminating political opponents who might pose some future
threat.
The First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution
prohibits the U.S. government from criminalizing speech. But Bush is
indicating that he and his political followers believe that, amid the
“war on terror,” it is justifiable to do just that.
Al-Qaeda Plot
In another chilling passage in his speech, Bush
laid out a scenario for labeling criticism of him in the U.S. news media
as part of al-Qaeda’s terrorist strategy. Bush claimed that bin Laden
wrote to Taliban leader Mullah Omar about launching “a media campaign …
to create a wedge between the American people and their government.”
Bush said this media campaign would send the
American people messages, including “that their government [will] bring
them more losses, in finances and casualties.” Bush continued that bin
Laden’s media plan “aims at creating pressure from the American people
on the American government to stop their campaign against Afghanistan.”
Bush cited this supposed al-Qaeda manipulation of
the U.S. media as one of the reasons that “bin Laden and his allies are
absolutely convinced they can succeed in forcing America to retreat and
causing our economic collapse. They believe our nation is weak and
decadent, and lacking in patience and resolve. And they’re wrong.”
As Bush defines domestic criticism of his war’s
costs “in finances and casualties” as part of a terrorist scheme, it’s
not hard to imagine how Bush’s devoted followers will react. Any
expression of concern that Bush is charting a course toward mad
destruction will be attacked as somehow acting in concert with
terrorists.
Though Bush has said that his goal in waging his
vague and seemingly endless “war on terror” is to defend freedom, the
reality behind Bush’s grim vision is the emergence of an American
totalitarianism where objectionable thought will be repressed and
dissent will be equated with treason.
The President has now made clear that he wants the
Nov. 7 congressional elections to be a referendum on whether Americans
will follow him into this dangerous future. He has thrown down the
gauntlet to those who disagree with his dark vision of what kind of
nation the United States is and will be.
Robert Parry broke many of the Iran-Contra
stories in the 1980s for the Associated Press and Newsweek. His latest book, Secrecy & Privilege: Rise of the Bush Dynasty from
Watergate to Iraq, can be ordered at
secrecyandprivilege.com. It's also available at
Amazon.com, as is his 1999 book, Lost History: Contras, Cocaine,
the Press & 'Project Truth.'