The timeline of this new bout of escalation is likely dictated by U.S. refinery inventories and the extent of the “hurt” being experienced by Trump back home in the context of his fading political prospects.
The state funeral in Tehran for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on July 5. (Mehr News Agency /Wikimedia Commons// CC BY 4.0)
By Alastair Crooke
Conflicts Forum
When the U.S. Navy, in co-ordination with Qatar and Oman, tried to slip a convoy of four vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, via Omani waters, on Tuesday night — rather than pass via Iran’s officially approved route — U.S. President Donald Trump may have imagined (or been told) that, with the massive funeral for the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei under way, Iran would not react as the U.S. Navy attempted to force open an American corridor.
Trump however, misread the Iranian jibe — Hormuz is its “atomic weapon.” Iran will not relinquish it.
Trump insists — in clear contradiction to the terms set out in paragraph five of the MoU — that Iran has no right to interfere with any ship trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Iran nonetheless is acting within the terms of the agreed de-escalation framework, and has warned repeatedly that it would strike any vessel circumventing the Iranian control mechanism.
Iran responded directly to Trump’s challenge to Iranian control of the Strait by striking two vessels with missiles and a third with an armed drone. A fourth Qatari-owned tanker, laden with liquefied natural gas, was set ablaze, forcing its crew to abandon the stricken vessel.
These Iranian ripostes provoked Trump to order American air strikes against Iranian targets; to reimpose sanctions on the Islamic Republic’s oil exports; and to revoke the MoU framework he had signed with what he called the “Iranian scum” — thus ending the ceasefire. “We hit them hard last night”, Trump said at the NATO summit in Ankara. “We will probably hit them hard again tonight.”
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and Trump at the Bestepe Presidential Compound in Ankara on Wednesday. (White House/Daniel Torok)
Trump did hit Iran again Wednesday night — even though Iran had not attacked another vessel seeking to by-pass the Iranian corridor. In response, Iran launched ballistic missiles and drones at U.S. bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE and Muwaffaq Al-Salti airbase in Jordan.
Vice-President Vance is saying to Iran, “If you try to close the Strait of Hormuz, the American military will respond. It’s that simple” — i.e. Iran either keeps the Strait fully open to all, or the U.S. will keep hitting it, as it did on Tuesday night.
U.S. Central Command forces have begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway. The U.S. strikes are in response to Iranian attacks on three…
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 7, 2026
Iran insists that it is the U.S. that has violated the MoU and (via the spokesman for Iran’s Parliamentary National Security Committee) warns that further attacks by the U.S. on Iran will be met by a comprehensive all-out surprise offensive by Iran — and potentially by other options too, such as an Iranian withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), changing the country’s nuclear doctrine and closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait alongside the Strait of Hormuz.
So, Vice-President Vance is saying if Iran restricts Hormuz (i.e. it stays open to friendly states’ vessels) the U.S. will escalate. And Iran is responding to this threat by warning that it will escalate militarily — two strikes for every one American strike — and that they may also turn to new doctrines of warfare.
Vance, on right, shaking hands with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Switzerland on June 20 as Field Marshal Asim Munir looks on during negotiations on implementing the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding on ending hostilities. (Luke Schroeder / X /VPPressSec/Wikimedia Commons/ Public Domain)
Essentially, Trump has plunged into an escalatory trap, seemingly in part out of pique at his collapsing polls at home. He did, however, directly put himself in this situation by trying to “act cute” during the Khamenei funeral “pre-occupations” in order to try to gain a “quick win.”
How long will this escalatory episode last? Certainly, it will not lead to the opening of the Strait; nor bring a return of the status quo ante that preceded the war. As long as Iran maintains its ability to exert control over Hormuz, there is no basis to assume that the situation will return to what it was.
On the contrary, and more likely, the crisis will accelerate the onset of looming global economic crisis that could last until the economic pain becomes acute, as the drawdown on sour crude continues — and as the effects on the real economy in the West become visible.
Ayatollah Sayyid Mojtaba Khamenei, April 2026. (Khamenei.ir/Wikimedia Commons/ CC BY 4.0)
With shortages of munitions and the drawdown on air assets from the Middle East already beginning, Trump probably lacks the wherewithal to go full “Iran War 3.0.”
The timeline to this new bout of low-intensity tit-for-tat therefore, is likely dictated by refinery inventories in the U.S.; but also by the extent of the “hurt” being experienced by Trump back home in the context of his fading political prospects, but also by his dislike for any personal humiliation.
Where did this all go wrong? Possibly the crux of it derives from the moment that Iran’s new supreme leader, Sayyed Mojtaba, issued his statement that he had held a different view on the MoU to that of the negotiating team, but had agreed to proceed with it after receiving an assurance from the Iranian president that he would ensure and take into account Iran’s overarching principles in respect to relations with the U.S.
The Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei’s statement put on notice both the U.S. — and the Iranian negotiators — that Iran’s approval of the MoU was no open mandate, but rather closely tied to the 10 principles originally enunciated bythe new Supreme Leader.
At some point, the Iranian leadership seemingly came to the conclusion that Iran was being played by the U.S.; that the MoU was a deception —
“and that the entirety of events since the announcement of the MoU reflected a US strategy based on the view that in the previous round of the war against Iran – [that the US and Israel] failed to achieve their objectives – necessitating a halt to the confrontation, albeit temporarily, in order to regroup and prepare ‘more thoroughly’ for a new round when the right conditions arise.”
This led to the Iranian reassessment that the Hormuz and Lebanon components constituted the vital leverage to engage in a new war as the West ramps up pressure as a holding strategy — whilst the U.S. and Israel prepare for the next round of war.
Alastair Crooke is director and founder of Conflicts Forum, based in Beirut. He was formerly advisor on Middle East issues to Javier Solana, the EU foreign policy chief.
This article was originally published on Conflict Forum’s Substack. It also appears on Strategic Culture Foundation.
The views expressed are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of Consortium News.
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The USA is 100% committed to war. They want to take down China. Venezuela supplies oil to China so it was first on the men. Pirating Russian tankers, second. Iran third. Each negotiations is a ruse, as the USA is completely anti-peace. The agreement was fake. There was a possibility it would last 5 months until after the midterm election, but instead it was more like one week.
Iran knows the score. They negotiate only so that cannot be accused of not negotiating.
Patrick you are tuned into the current ‘King’s” frequency 5 by 5, 100% correct.
Another indication of exactly how CIA and the Deep State apply their foreign policy. U.S. foreign policy has been hijacked by CIA since shortly before all the ink dried on official documents signed in D.C. since 1946-47.
I’m not sure you will agree with me, regardless I feel the necessity to explain to you how I see this mess.
I feel what you describe above are examples of the symptoms plaguing the U.S. as a result of CIA having been hijacked by Zionist involved in the creation of the agency from it’s infancy. The assassination of JFK was tantamount in that the act was necessary to maintain control of the U.S. Government’s CIA and the complete control the agency had maintained over U.S. foreign policy to until JFK took office.
JFK had to die if CIA and Israeli Zionists were to maintain their complete control of said U.S. Foreign Policy.
Designed to model the Zionist goals for Israel.
Your thoughts?
Your comment is right on the dot as is Crooke’s main write up. The timelines of both oil and wheat pricings and the political fates awaiting realisation are converging to unsettle what was intended as a more drawn out conflictual schedule. In both the Donbass and Hormuz and more broadly the Azov Sea and the Persian Gulf hostilities have, accordingly, assumed rapid momentums. While the geopolitical players are actively dictating the pace, the rest of the polarized and deeply divided world states and their hapless if not also entirely innocuous populace are protractively held hostage by crises that they never started but their elites may secretly profit from. Meanwhile, the world remains anxious if peace could break out under strengths that are per force sectoral and bloody THEATRICAL !
The Village Idiot from Queens has been busy while I took a break. I wish I could say it is good to be back.
I cannot!
I don’t see much has changed. The democratic party leadership has been stumbling around while some members are making an effort t play hard ball with republicans failing because Repub’s are frozen in fear at a loss. Demo’s are ineffective blocked congress by the ‘party of no’, to make matter much worse at this critical time they do not to seem able to vet potential democratic candidates who are either pilfering money from party funds or are brain dead and def to the personal failing of not knowing how to interact with members of the opposite sex.
This type of garbage at the national political level, one would think, would be passe` by now.
I cannot help being convinced masses of American’s, present company included are missing the very real, ever present reality of DJT & Cult, as advertised – Management Experts Serving Criminal Enterprises Inc. are way ahead of schedule. The bad news. MESCI being somewhat lost on what exactly to do with their assumed control of the most powerful military on the planet, a less than confidence building reality, is the good news. Good news which will be short lived judging from the totally ineffective U.S. Congress. No resistance from the Republicans is killing any efforts to bring MESCI under control and time is not on the side of the U.S. in this instance.
MESCI has every intention of alienating and fragmenting the U.S. populace any and every way they can imagine to do so.
Think not? Trump would love to bankrupt the U.S. create open chaos in the streets, and with the help of his billionaire and trillionaire friends move the the Wall Street structure out of the country. My guess his plan include Israel and other members of the old 41 / CIA Safari Club.
Trump is engaging in wearing the U.S. Military down to it’s nubs to weaken American might. Lack of equipment, munitions and warm bodies.The public at large seems totally deaf and mute on the topic.
This is a very real problem. Ole 45 / 47 hates every American who fails to pay homage and as crazy as he is he is getting crazier because he knows what happens to CEO’s when their gig is up. He senses his end is coming and he wants homage and will inflict every bit of damage he can to the common working masses.
I will remind everyone once again, “When someone tells you who they are, believe them the first time.
Anyone who feels they have problems currently because of a failed government controlling the Federal Governing apparatus let this thing called MESCI continue to drive the institutions which make the country great into the ground, both figuratively and literally.
Everyone had enough?
The United States is indeed agreement incapable, and a treacherous actor. In the midst of negotiations with Iran, on 13 June, 2025, Israel ( always in communication with the Washington ) launched its surprise attack. On 28 February, before another round of talks with Iran, the U.S./Israel slaughtered 168 school children, Ayatollah Khamenei and his family. Now America, in tandem with the Devil of the Levant, is serially violating the MoU. No one should trust The Land Of The Free to give them the correct time of day. Denial about Iran’s escalation dominance will not open the Strait of Hormuz. Further military actions by the U.S. will only ensure further retaliations and more suffering for the aggressors – and masses of people in the world who never wanted this war. Among others, developing countries in Asia – such as Vietnam and Cambodia – will be hit extremely hard by the economic impact of the Empire’s idiocy and moral rot, vis á vis Iran.
I recall a statement from FM Arachi of Iran, that effectively said that he knew the deal, the MoU, was BS. But that they felt it was important not to pass up a chance to resolve this.
The Iranians openly stated that this original MoU was a ‘trust-building’ measure. They wanted to find out if America could be trusted to keep a deal. They now know the answer. Although, what they have received is simply confirmation of what they already knew. It is best not to pay much attention to the constant CIA message, broadcast loudly through the CIA’s media, that there are divisions in Iran. The scenes from the funeral were the pictures worth millions of words of refutation.
There is no partner for peace in America, nor in America’s 51st state. One could say that this is the position of the oligarchs, but in America’s elections, 95 to 99% of Americans regularly vote for more war and bigger war budgets. Harris was as in favor of genocide, huge war budgets, and war as Trump. There might be a difference in style, or disagreements over tactics, but Harris openly said in an interview that there was nothing, not one thing, that she would change from Biden’s years. That includes the genocide and the “praise the Lord and pass the Ammunition” policy towards Israel. The candidates who disagreed struggled to get the support of even 1% of Americans. There is no partner for peace among the war-loving Americans.
Iran, Russia, and likely China have all figured this out. It is Russia’s FM that has said “Americans are non-agreement capable.”
The number is 1.0. Or it’s a lot higher, depending on how one looks at it. The USA has effectively been at war with Iran ever since the Iranian people threw out America’s corrupt, torturing Shah. The USA has never forgiven the Iranian people for this, and has been in a constant state of hostility ever since. However, since the America constitution says that politicians have to vote and go on record to declare a war, America don’t do that anymore. Now America alternates from fake peace to sudden war on a regular basis, with constant BS about how cease-fires are still in place even as America blows the cease-fire to smithereens. With even more BS about how the nation that we bombed and hated for decades has caused us to once again be forced to bomb them.
Then US-Iran War began in 1979. The war moved into year 46 last February, as we passed the anniversary the departure of the Shah who was loved by the CIA and hated by the Iranian people. Or, if we count the various flare-ups, we can start with Number 1 when Jimmy Carter lost planes and helicopters on the ground in Iran, and then count every flare up since. Americans will need to take off their shoes to count that high.
Taking into account what Crooke has so realistically reiterated here, one would be right to surmise that Iran would not relent to losing its grip on the Hormuz in the near future and it’s determination to exercise effective control over it is assuming de facto credibility. It also appears that nothing would give either in Iran, where the revenge-bent Supreme Leader is already regretting his earlier flexibility, nor in the US itself, where a credibility-depleted Trump is simmering into bashing the Iranian civilization, even to the extent of running down their elites as scums and coo-coos. The ticking clocks on either side is heading no where. The global economy has little choice but to grind on for the coming few months and as long as it doesn’t grind to a halt, humanity could chug along till effective multi-polarity throws up positive options.
There are reports that Starmer wants to be the next Secretary of General of NATO.
As such a devoted warmonger he would certainly be well-qualified.