M.K. Bhadrakumar won’t be surprised if things go well between Trump and Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the billionaire speaker of Iran’s Majlis, who heads negotiations beginning in Islamabad Saturday.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of Iran’s Majlis, or parliament, 2023. (Hamed Malekpour/Wikimedia Commons/CC BY-SA 4.0)
By M.K. Bhadrakumar
Indian Punchline
Glaring differences between the United States and Iran notwithstanding, the talks beginning in Islamabad Saturday have a fairly good chance of being a success.
There is too much at stake and there are unifying factors where commonality of business and economic interests of the two leaderships outweigh geopolitical considerations.
President Donald Trump has a counterpart in Majlis speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf heading the Iranian delegation, who is also a self-made billionaire-politician like Trump and believes that all good politics is principally about creating wealth — for oneself as well as for the country.
The routes they took in their meteoric ascendancy in politics were different but Ghalibaf is also not a cleric or a doctrinaire ideologue who rose through hawza (religious) seminaries or theological networks.
Ghalibaf’s strategic asset lies in his revolutionary credentials — sacrifice, command experience, and institutional loyalty — by virtue of his long experience in the war with Iraq while serving in the Revolutionary Guards, then in the broader state machinery.
Alex Vatanka, author of books on Iran and a senior fellow at the Washington-based think tank Middle East Institute (funded by the petrodollar Gulf states), recently wrote of Ghalibaf:
“For all his hardline rhetoric, for all his long record in the security state, he is one of the few senior figures left in Tehran who can plausibly be described as both a regime insider and a functioning political operator. He belongs to the Islamic Republic’s military elite, but he has also spent years trying to translate that pedigree into broader governing authority. That combination is what makes him matter.”
The defining moment in Ghalibaf’s career trajectory came in 1989 when he landed the job of the chief executive of the Mostazafan Foundation, a charitable organisation, which he brilliantly turned into the second-largest commercial enterprise and a vast empire.
Such foundations — or bonyads as they are called — by virtue of their nexus with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) wield enormous political power, control the commanding heights of the country’s economy and are the glue of Iran’s political economy.
Ghalibaf’s business empire spanning infrastructure, construction, real estate, etc. enabled him to build a network of loyal allies and partners, and to shape policy and advocate for his interests. In turn, Ghalibaf’s unparalleled wealth and influence made him a formidable force in Iranian politics.
Suffice it to say, Ghalibaf makes an ideal partner for Trump to steer the battered ship of U.S.-Iran relationship out of troubled waters.
Trump’s circle is sure to appreciate Ghalibaf’s shrewd business acumen. Tehran has already proposed to the Trump administration the seamless business opportunities including in the oil and gas sector, if only the ties between the two countries are normalised.
The Main Sticking Point
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu displaying a map labelled “The Curse” that shows Syria, Iraq and Iran in red, during a U.N. General Assembly address on Sept. 26, 2025. (U.N. Photo/Loey Felipe)
It is from such a perspective that the 10-point plan put forth by Iran this week are to be viewed. Arguably, there are no major obstacles to reaching an agreement, now that the nuclear issue has already been negotiated threadbare and a common ground is available.
If we were to flesh out the 10-point plan ad seriatim, the main sticking point is the last item on “An end to the war on all fronts, including military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon.”
And that is because Israel’s specific interests come in. But the good part is that there is universal condemnation of Israel’s attempt to annex Lebanese territory with the very same brutal methods it adopted in Gaza.
The first seven items are basically non-issues, they leap out of the 2015 nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Item No. 8 about “Compensation for damage inflicted on Iran” and item No. 9 regarding “The withdrawal of U.S. troops from the region,” have wrinkles to be ironed out, but some modus vivendi is possible.
U.S. President Barack Obama, center, and his national security staff are all smiles shortly after being notified of the nuclear agreement with Iran, July 13, 2015. (White House/Pete Souza)
Significantly, Tehran refrained from pressing its demand on item No. 8 as “war reparations” and instead seeks “compensation.” This is where U.S. willingness to accept Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz comes in.
“Compensation” can be in the nature of generating an income out of a toll system in the Strait of Hormuz whereas war reparations is an admission of guilt.
Trump has still not forgiven U.S. President Barack Obama for releasing Iran’s blocked funds in circumstances related to the final stages of the JCPOA negotiations, amounting to around $1.7 billion that were frozen by the Jimmy Carter administration (which included $400 million in interest) in a 1979 assets freeze following Iran’s seizure of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and the detention of American diplomats.
Trump seems to be open to Iran generating income via a toll system in the Strait of Hormuz and speculated playfully that the U.S. could jointly operate the new system with Tehran and earn some money on the side.
The heart of the matter is that Trump seems to have estimated that Ghalibaf is a pragmatic politician who is receptive to close relations with the U.S. and is enthusiastic about fostering business and economic ties in particular, according to reporting by Time magazine.
“We are dealing with a man who I believe is the most respected,” Time quoted Trump, with the president adding that it was “not the supreme leader” and that his administration has not heard from Mojtaba Khamenei at all.
Iran’s new supreme leader, second from left, with his three brothers, from left to right: Mostafa, Masoud and Meysam in October 2023. (Khamenei.ir/ Wikimedia Commons/, CC BY 4.0)
Don’t be surprised that if things go well, the two of them might even strike a friendship.
Politico reported recently that the Trump administration was “quietly weighing” Ghalibaf as “a potential partner — and even a future leader.”
An administration official told the outlet that Ghalibaf was a “hot option” but the choice was not final as the U.S. still would have to “test” him and weigh other prospects: “We can’t rush into it.”
Ghalibaf has long been seen as a protégé of late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a confidant of his son Mojtaba, the new leader — and a close friend of General Qasem Soleimani, one of Iran’s most powerful and charismatic figures who was assassinated in 2020 by the first Trump administration.
Unsurprisingly, Ghalibaf’s ascension raised concerns about the entrenchment of crony capitalism and the dangers of conflating business interests with politics in Iran’s political economy, and will be a constant reminder that the lines between business and politics are increasingly blurred in the Islamic Republic.
Trump should find it a comforting thought that Ghalibaf could be an Iranian equivalent of the last leader of the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev, about whom then-U.K. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher noted, after their very first encounter in 10 Downing Street in 1984 even before he became Kremlin boss, that “We can do business together.”
M.K. Bhadrakumar is a former diplomat. He was India’s ambassador to Uzbekistan and Turkey. Views are personal.
This article originally appeared on Indian Punchline.
The views expressed are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of Consortium News.
The U.S.raelis just murdered thousands of their people in a totally illegal and immoral war, assassinated most of their leaders, double-tapped elementary schools and hospitals, and multiple times lied to them about negotiations and this author wants them “to do business together”? Maybe that’s realpolitik but Iran would just be setting up another regime change operation for themselves. Iran needs to divorce themselves from the U.S. and end the petrodollar. Don’t open the strait until all demands are met.
I aggree with that. Reparations mean guilt – yes, the US is guilty and should pay but the person with the gun never pays. Why is Ghalibaf still alive? – is Israel slipping?
I heard that Trump is closing the Hormuz Strait permenently to stop Iran getting any moneu from it. So no deal, if ever.
More details about how Ghalibaf turned a charitable organization into billions in personal wealth would be more helpful in understanding who he is and what he represents.
Israel is clearly determined to ruin any settlement that would allow Iran to be a major regional force or prevent the continuation of the ‘Greater Israel ‘ project. If Trump, Vance or Israel believe divine power is on their side and can protect them from any consequence for war crimes, then the entire exercise is just a desperate attempt to rearm, and gain strategic breathing room.
The real determinitive question is the US political landscape. The public is sick of Israel’s religion of murder. But will candidates emerge to challenge addiction in both parties to Zionist political money and our empire of debt, violence and oligarchy? Will people go out on the street and canvas doo to door for a 3rd party or independent presidency? Our whning is not working.
Indeed Ghalibaf has been accused repeatedly of corruption (see below). That would make him perhaps an even better counterpart to the corrupt Trump, which is the point of this piece: that perhaps a deal could be made between these men who see eye to eye. In the end there was no deal and Iran rejected any idea of sharing Hormuz toll revenue with the U.S.
From: hxxps://mei.edu/publication/corruption-iran-strategic-instrument-islamic-republic-regime/ :
“Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a former military officer who served as the mayor of Tehran from 2005 to 2017 and as speaker of parliament since 2020, has faced repeated charges of corruption on multiple occasions. In 2017, he was accused of leveraging his political power and relationship with Khamenei to cover up the around $2.6 billion believed to have been embezzled from Yas Holding, a front company for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Simultaneously, official reports of corruption in real estate, leaked by an independent journalist, revealed that during Ghalibaf’s tenure, the Tehran Municipality allocated properties at “astronomical prices,” with a 50% discount to some of the mayor’s supporters. In April 2022, news about the luxurious lifestyle and expensive trips of Ghalibaf’s family went viral. Despite the significant media attention, he was never summoned to court. Moreover, the journalist who leaked the “astronomical real estate” case was arrested and spent several months under interrogation in solitary confinement.”
Other sources on how Ghalibaf accumulated his wealth:
hxxps://uk.news.yahoo.com/iranian-negotiate-mohammad-ghalibaf-205600194.html
hxxps://www.intellinews.com/how-iran-s-ghalibaf-turned-concrete-into-power-433355/
Interesting insight into Iranian governance, but I am wary of this perspective. Red flag: describing Trump as a “self-made” billionaire? Reads like satire, or pandering. The author may be a canny diplomat offering an honest view. I don’t know. But again, given this bit of description, I am wary.
This overly rosy assessment needs to be read in conjunction with Patrick Lawrence’s column today. Mendacity, double-dealing and treachery are now the hallmarks of American “diplomacy”. As desperate as Trump is to find a face-saving off-ramp for this disasterous war, he wouldn’t be able to stop himself from fudging along the edges of any agreement to make it a better “deal” for himself as such behavior is in his very DNA. Add to that Israel’s determination to sabotage any agreement it doesn’t like — really, that would be any agreement at all — and it becomes clear that the prospects of anything more than a very brief pause in the conflict are actually quite bleak. That Mr. Bhadrakumar would frame this as two billionaires coming to terms in their mutual interest only further underscores how completely degraded international diplomacy has become.
A club member ? What about universities here in US , similiar, in a way ?
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In July 1999, during intense student protests in Tehran, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf—then a commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and head of its Air Force—co-signed a threatening letter to then-reformist President Mohammad Khatami.
Wikipedia
Wikipedia
+1
The letter, signed by 24 IRGC commanders, stated that if the government did not act to suppress the student demonstrations, the military would act unilaterally.
Wikipedia
Key Details of the 1999 Letter & Action:
Context: Student protests erupted after the government shut down a reformist newspaper and security forces cracked down on a student dormitory.
The Threat: The letter warned Khatami that the “elected president could not determine the boundaries of political life” and that the IRGC would no longer tolerate the unrest, threatening a direct intervention.
Outcome: The letter is considered a significant turning point, showing the IRGC’s willingness to intervene in politics and undermine the reform movement.
Aftermath: Following the crackdown, Ghalibaf was appointed as the national police chief.
PBS
Later Claims by Ghalibaf:
In a 2005 speech, Ghalibaf acknowledged his role in the crackdown, claiming to be one of the “club-wielders” who suppressed the protests. He also later boasted about threatening to “demolish” protesters during a later incident in 2003.
WSJ