Ruins of Beit Lahiya, in the Gaza Strip, destroyed by Israeli bombardments, Feb. 23, 2025. (Jaber Jehad Badwan. Creative Commons ASA-4.0)
A peer-reviewed study published this week in The Lancet Global Health estimates that more than 75,000 people in Gaza were killed during the first 16 months of Israel’s genocidal assault — a figure that far exceeds the death toll reported at the time by the strip’s health authorities.
The study’s authors found that there were 75,200 “violent deaths” in Gaza between Oct. 7, 2023 and Jan. 5, 2025, with women, children, and elderly Palestinians making up around 56 percent of the toll.
The researchers estimated an additional 16,300 nonviolent deaths — from disease, accidents, or other causes not directly related to Israel’s military onslaught — during that period.
Wounded child at al-Shifa Hospital, October 2023. (Palestinian News & Information Agency, Wafa, in contract with APAimages, CC-ASA-3.0)
The Lancet study’s estimated Gaza death toll through early January 2025 is at least 25,000 deaths higher than the figure reported at the time by Gaza’s Ministry of Health (MoH).
Gaza health officials put the current death toll from Israel’s assault at more than 72,000 — a figure that Israeli authorities only recently acknowledged is accurate after more than two years of denial.
“The combined evidence suggests that, as of January 5, 2025, 3-4 percent of the population of the Gaza Strip had been killed violently and there have been a substantial number of nonviolent deaths caused indirectly by the conflict,” the Lancet study states.
“Our findings contradict claims that the MoH has inflated the death toll from the war in the Gaza Strip. Instead, the MoH appears to provide conservative, reliable figures while working under extraordinary constraints.”
The study’s lead author is Michael Spagat, a professor of economics at Royal Holloway, University of London and a board member of Action on Armed Violence.
The London-based watchdog organization noted in its coverage of the study that “Spagat is internationally recognized for his work on war mortality estimation, including studies of Kosovo, Iraq, and other conflict zones.”
The new study, described as “the first independent population survey of mortality in the Gaza Strip,” is the latest peer-reviewed research showing that the officially reported death tolls from the Israeli military’s invasion and destruction of the territory are likely significant undercounts.
A study published in The Lancet in January 2025 indicated that the death toll reported by Gaza health officials over roughly the first year and a half of Israel’s assault was likely a 41 percent undercount.
“It will be a long time before we get to a full accounting of all the people killed in Gaza, if we ever get there,” Spagat told The Guardian on Thursday.
Jake Johnson is a senior editor and staff writer for Common Dreams.
This article is from Common Dreams.
Views expressed in this article and may or may not reflect those of Consortium News.
It’s a genocide. Israel is never going to stop until the Palestinians are wiped out. And the collective west will keep supporting them no matter what. We have to keep up being principled.
How will the Israelis deal with this, I wonder – apart from the very likely attempt to discredit the report, its authors, reviewers, and even the Lancet itself?
Will they try and convince the world that all those women, children, and elderly Palestinians were all Hamas fighters?
That those tiny little babies had been trained to kill IDF soldiers from the moment of their birth? With what and how exactly?
That the elderly were also highly trained operatives, determined to kill Israelis at every opportunity?
That mothers carrying and feeding their children were silently watching and waiting to catch sight of Israeli soldiers to kill?
Playing the victim card no longer works, blaming Hamas for everything no longer works, making wild and absurd claims about civilians as ‘secret’ soldiers no longer works. In fact, nothing works any more. Their lies are totally exposed.
They simply can’t cover up their vicious vile and evil atrocities.
Our (U.S.) tax dollars at work. Unforgiveable.