RAY McGOVERN: Trump Ukraine Plan AOA (Alive on Arrival)

Yury Ushakov, Putin’s man on Ukraine, said there’s no firm plan for Ukraine yet and some American ideas are acceptable to Russia, some not.  But the plan is not dead.

By Ray McGovern
Special to Consortium News

Despite widespread rejection and ridicule in Western media of Donald Trump’s peace proposal on Ukraine being “dead on arrival” in Moscow, there was Trump’s envoy and his son-in-law discussing the “dead” document for five hours until midnight on Tuesday with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin.

Yury Ushakov, Putin’s chief aide on Ukraine, in the official readout, said the two sides discussed several options, including territorial issues, and agreed to continue contacts.

“We did not discuss specific formulations, specific American proposals, but discussed the very essence of what is embedded in these American documents. I cannot disclose the key points of these documents,” Ushakov said. “They all relate to a long-term peaceful settlement of the crisis in Ukraine.” [Emphasis added.]

Ushakov said there’s no firm plan for Ukraine yet and that some American ideas are acceptable to Russia, some not.

But the plan is not dead.

Trump told the press on Wednesday that Witkoff and Kushner had a good meeting with Putin, but added enigmatically, “What comes out of that meeting? I can’t tell you, because it takes two to tango.”

Trump did indicate that Witkoff and Kushner had the strong impression that Putin would like to make a deal.

Probably the most important points of the 28 still alive are Ukraine withdrawing from the rest of Donbass and putting back into its constitution a legal commitment to neutrality, i.e., a prohibition on joining NATO.

Ukraine declared neutrality upon its 1991 independence and enshrined a principle of neutrality in its 1996 constitution. But it was removed in the 2019 constitution, four years after the U.S.-backed unconstitutional change of government in Kiev. The constitution now names full-fledged membership in NATO as a goal.

It is not an unreasonable, or pie-in-the-sky, demand to put it back in there.

The idea that the Trump plan lives because it was all drawn up by Putin’s henchman is belied by the fact that the proposal calls for a Ukraine military reduced to 600,000 troops. Russia wants Ukraine demilitarized.

There are other parts of the plan Russia would not at all be happy with, such as Moscow handing over the Kinburn Spit to Ukraine and the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to international management. Or “$100 billion in frozen Russian assets” to be “invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine” with the U.S. receiving “50% of the profits from this venture.”

Sidelining Zelensky and Rubio

Significantly, a reportedly scheduled meeting between Witkoff and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Dublin on Witkoff’s way back to the U.S. never took place. As it was certainly in Zelensky’s interests to be briefed on what Putin had said it is fairly certain that it was Witkoff that blew Zelensky off, and not the other way around.

The canceled meeting is significant because it lends more evidence to the conclusion that Trump and the realists on his team no longer care so much about what Zelensky thinks and will proceed without him.

The same appears to be the case with Europe. Trump has now stated unequivocally that Ukraine has lost the war on the ground and there’s nothing Europe or Zelensky can do about it. 

Trump said last week:

“It’s clearly up to the Russians. It’s moving in one direction. … That’s land that over the next couple of months might be gotten by Russia anyway. So, do you want to fight and lose another 50,000 or 60,000 people? Or do something now? They are negotiating; they are trying to get it done.”

These are simply the facts on the ground at this point. It doesn’t matter which side you are on.

Trump said if Zelensky remains obdurate, his alternative is to “continue to fight his little heart out.”

Trump also appears to be sidelining the hawks on his team, especially Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who was conspicuously absent from the Kremlin meeting. 

Rubio was in Geneva on Nov. 23 with the Ukrainians and Europeans to try to undermine Trump’s 28-point plan, attempting to replace it with one of just 19 points that unrealistically gives an advantage to Ukraine. Unrealistic because this war has already ended on the battlefield and Trump has virtually acknowledged it.

Rubio was also a no-show at NATO foreign ministers’ semi-annual meeting on Wednesday. 

It was no faux pas. Rubio let it be known a week ago that he would not show up, and did not deign to offer an excuse. His disdain was reflected in a report quoting a senior State Department official saying:

“Rubio attends enough gatherings. He has already attended dozens of meetings with NATO allies, and it would be completely impractical to expect him at every meeting.” (sic)

Clearly, Rubio was directed to make this exceedingly rare snub, not only to put NATO in its place, but also so he would not have to try to explain to other NATO members why they – and Ukraine – were being excluded from reborn U.S.-Russia negotiations on Ukraine, and that “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine” is now a vestigial slogan.

NBC News began its report on Wednesday:

“Almost all of NATO’s foreign ministers gathered in Brussels on Wednesday, a day after inconclusive Ukraine peace talks between the United States and Russian President Vladimir Putin and as European officials struggled for a seat at the negotiating table.”

NBC added that the NATO secretary general showed the Dutch equivalent of the stiff upper lip, trying to assure all that, despite Rubio’s absence, the secretary of state remained “very much involved.”

This seem all a part of Trump completely ignoring the Europeans.

Before Putin met with Witkoff and Kushner on Tuesday, Putin had sharp words for Europe in a press stakeout. He addressed the constant rhetoric from an increasingly irrelevant Europe drumming up fears of a phony Russian “threat.” 

Putin said: “We are not planning to go to war against Europe. I have said that a hundred times. But if Europe wants to wage a war against us and suddenly starts a war with us, we are ready. There should be no doubt about that.” 

Dead Man Walking

Zelensky is increasingly a dead man walking in Kiev. After the forced resignation of Andrii Yermak, his chief of staff who was considered the real power behind Zelensky’s throne, following anti-corruption authorities raiding his home, a round of arrests on corruption charges is expected against other officials in Zelensky’s circle.

Simply sidelining Zelensky will not be enough to implement a peace deal, of course. Heavy pressure, beyond the catastrophic losses in men and territory that Ukraine is suffering on the battlefield, would need to be brought to bear on Kiev.

Trump has the leverage of cutting off intelligence and weapons to get Ukraine to agree to a deal. It is not clear whether Trump would use that leverage if a final plan is agreed to between Trump and Putin.

Moscow’s Caution

There are lots of experiences – besides Trump’s mercurial nature – requiring the Kremlin to be super-cautious about betrayal (as well as zig-zags) in dealing with Washington. What follows is an example not widely known.

Ushakov has every reason to exercise extreme care as he advises Putin on the U.S. and its senior functionaries. Russian ambassador to the U.S. from 1998 to 2008 and aide to Putin since 2012, Ushakov had a humiliating experience at a crucial point at the turn of 2021-22.

In short, the enthusiasm he expressed in a readout of a Dec. 30, 2021 telephone call between the President Joe Biden and Putin turned out, in retrospect, to be naïve. (Ushakov publicly rejoiced the following day, New Year’s Eve, over what he believed to be a sign that the U.S. was finally acknowledging Russia’s security concerns.)

During the Dec. 30 call, Biden told Putin “Washington has no intention to deploy offensive strike weapons in Ukraine.” But the U.S. reneged.

When Foreign Minister Lavrov and Secretary of State Antony Blinken were both in Geneva on Jan. 21, 2022, Lavrov asked Blinken what happened to Biden’s undertaking not to put offensive missiles in Ukraine. Lavrov got a “forget-about-it” from Blinken.

Biden and Putin talked again on Feb 12, 2022. That readout said, “The U.S. gave no meaningful response” regarding Biden’s assurance of six weeks prior about missiles in Ukraine. As for the chastened Ushakov, it will surely be back to “Trust but Verify.”

Yesterday, Ushakov’s readout rejected the notion that the U.S. and Russia are farther apart on Ukraine. “But there is still a lot of work to be done both in Washington and in Moscow,” he admitted. “It has been agreed, and contacts will continue.”

Another summit meeting between Trump and Putin “depends on the progress to be made on this path: We will work hard and persistently through assistants, Foreign Ministry specialists,” Ushakov said.

Despite the caution, Moscow has made it clear that improved economic ties are in the meantime of major importance.

Thus Russian Direct Investment Fund chief Kirill Dmitriev and “businessman and investor Jared Kushner” were at the table, discussing “the enormous prospects for future economic cooperation between the two countries,” Ushakov said.

That too remains very much alive.

— Joe Lauria contributed to this article.

Ray McGovern works with Tell the Word, a publishing arm of the ecumenical Church of the Saviour in inner-city Washington. His 27 years as a C.I.A. analyst included leading the Soviet Foreign Policy Branch and conducting the morning briefings of the President’s Daily Brief. In retirement he co-founded Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS).

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