Indications are that Israel with the support of Washington is spoiling for a fight with Iran as the E3 moves for snapback sanctions against Tehran, writes M. K. Bhadrakumar.
Tehran in April 2018. (Ninara/ Wikimedia Commons/ CC BY-SA 3.0)
By M.K. Bhadrakumar
Indian Punchline
There is extremely alarming news about the situation around Iran.
In consultations with the Trump administration — rather, in deference to the command from Washington — the E3 countries (Britain, France and Germany) who are the remaining western signatories of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal known as JCPOA, have initiated the process of triggering the so-called snapback mechanism with the aim to reimpose all U.N. sanctions against Iran on the plea that it has breached the terms of the ten-year old agreement.
A joint statement issued in the three European capitals on Aug. 25 notified the U.N. Security Council that Tehran is “in significant non-performance of its commitments under the JCPOA” to give a 30-day notice “before the possible reestablishment of previously terminated United Nations Security Council resolutions.”
The E3 statement is patently an act of sophistry since it was the U.S. which unilaterally abandoned the JCOPA in 2018 and the three European powers themselves have been remiss in ignoring their own commitments to lift the sanctions against Iran through the past 15-year period, which only had ultimately prompted Tehran to resume the uranium enrichment activity — although the Iranian side was ready to reinstate the JCOPA as recently as in December 2022.
A strange part of the E3 move is that they short-circuited the prescribed procedure in regard of the snapback mechanism with the intent to reduce the two other permanent member countries of the Security Council to be mere bystanders with no role whatsoever in the matter.
Unsurprisingly, Russia and China have taken exception to this and in a lengthy statement, the Russian Foreign Ministry has demanded (with China’s backing) an extension of the timeline by another six months by the Security Council as an interim measure so as to avoid a standoff with dangerous and tragic consequences.
Tehran has welcomed the Russia-China proposal as a “practical step.” Iran, of course, has explicitly warned that any such attempt by the E3 to reimpose the U.N. sanctions against it may compel it to reconsider its membership of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
It remains to be seen whether the E3 — or more precisely, the U.S.-Israeli nexus which is the driving force behind the precipitate move — will be amenable to a compromise.
All indications are that Israel with the full support of the Trump administration is spoiling for a fight with Iran and making a second attempt to force regime change in Tehran and the restoration of the erstwhile Pahlavi dynasty to replace the Islamic system that got established after the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Simply put, it is a make-or-break attempt by the U.S. and Israel to bring about a geopolitical realignment in the West Asian region.
The U.S. and Israel have drawn lessons out of the miserable failure of their first attempt in June to overthrow the Islamic system in Iran, and Israel suffered huge losses as Iran retaliated.
This time around, the U.S. and Israel seem to be preparing for a fight to the finish, although the outcome remains to be seen. Indeed, a protracted war may ensue. The U.S. is rearming Israel with advanced weaponry. At some point, early enough in the war, a direct American intervention in some form can also be expected.
Iran’s attack on Haifa oil refineries on the night of June 15-16, 2025. (Hanay/Wikimedia Commons/ CC BY-SA 4.0)
Unlike in June when the Trump administration in an elaborate ploy of deception lulled Tehran into a state of complacency when the Israeli attack began, this time around, Iran is on guard and has been strengthening its defenses. Make no mistake, Iran will fight back no matter what it takes.
Iran is also getting help from Russia for beefing up its air defence system and there are reports that Russian advisors are helping Iran’s armed forces to augment their capability to resist the U.S.-Israeli aggression.
Many Western experts, including Alastair Crooke, have predicted that an Israeli attack on Iran can be expected sooner rather than later. The Israeli-American expectation could be that Russia’s military operations in Ukraine will have reached a climactic point by autumn which would almost certainly preclude any scope for Moscow to get involved in a West Asian conflict, and that, in turn, will give them a free hand to take the regime change agenda to its finish.
Besides, in a policy reversal, Iran has taken up the standing Russian offer to provide an integrated air defence system. Such a system will possibly be in position by the middle of next year or so and it is expected to be a force multiplier for Iran.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the White House on July 7, 2025. (White House/ Daniel Torok)
Israel will most certainly try to attack Iran before the integrated system which is connected to Russian satellites becomes fully operational. It remains to be seen whether the Trump administration will be able to withstand Israeli pressure, given the Mossad’s alleged involvement in the Epstein scandal.
A West Asian war of titanic scale will be unprecedented. Apart from large scale loss of lives and destruction, the regional turmoil that ensues will also affect the surrounding regions — India in particular. The point is, an estimated 6 million Indians live in the Gulf region. Their safety and welfare will be in serious jeopardy if the Gulf states get sucked into the war at some point.
The probability is high that Iran’s retaliation this time around may involve the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz through which tankers carry approximately 17 million barrels of oil each day, or 20 to 30 percent of the world’s total consumption.
If that happens, oil price will skyrocket and India’s energy security, which is heavily dependent on oil imports, will be affected. India’s main sources of oil supplies are Russia (18-20 percent), Saudi Arabia (16-18 percent), UAE (8-10 percent) and the U.S. (6-7 percent).
Clearly, if the oil supplies from the Gulf region get disrupted, India’s dependence on oil flows from Russia will only increase further. In fact, there will be a scramble for Russian oil and, paradoxically, Trump’s best-laid plans to hollow out “Putin’s war chest” will remain a pipe dream.
Significantly, according to Israel’s Kanal 13, Russia has evacuated its diplomatic personnel and their families in its embassy in Tel Aviv in anticipation of a “dramatic” change in the security situation and growing signs of an outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Iran.
M.K. Bhadrakumar is a former diplomat. He was India’s ambassador to Uzbekistan and Turkey. Views are personal.
This article originally appeared on Indian Punchline.
The views expressed are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of Consortium News.
I see no proof that Iran “won” the exchange with Israel last time, perhaps they were so strong that they didn’t need to bomb back while Hezbollah and their Syrian militias were being pummeled, however it is very interesting to read such an opinion from an Indian ambassador.
Zionism is like a stage 4 metastatic cancer rotting too many brains throughout the world including those of Israeli Zionists.
Its members will continue to bomb and murder its neighbors.
It can only be neutralized by military means because there are too many cult members to deprogram.
The world goes blind when it comes to non christian/jewish nations. They were totally soccerpunch Iran with the negotiation tactics with witkoff. No doubt Iran will retaliate and the region fall into another disaster. All because some warmonger countries which produce weapons can fill their pockets with cash. Let’s not forget during the pandemic there was no war so these cartels wasn’t able to sell that much. Now is the time to raise funds by selling more.
Iran is the joker in all of this abundance of lunacy. Many billions of dollars went to them to try to advance them into the modern world. They chose their poison.
Now that we have a Dept of War, the maniacs in Washington and Tel Aviv won’t have to hide their intentions, and we can forget those pipedreams like Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize. Every day brings more insanity, and if there is another attack on Iran, there will no doubt be a block of the Straits of Hormuz, as pointed out in the article. Then all bets will be off, and a worldwide recession/depression would surely follow. Of course, countless lives will be lost, but that doesn’t appear to concern our warlords. This endless pursuit of violence, characteristic of the reptilian brains of those in charge, brings us ever closer to annihilation, and its difficult to see what can turn that around.
that time that you voted to trump you should thinked about it
The situation has gotten so far out of hand that it makes no further sense not to go to war. The U.S. has turned into a rogue state, supports genocide and warrantless killing. The Israelis, apparently supported in the belief that their God put them up to murder is willing to risk a throw of the dice be top dog in the entire Middle East and killing indiscriminately toward that end. There’s no end to their intransigence. War will be a cleansing act for the entire region. Otherwise things will limp along as it has since 1948.
Important article pointing out some more coming dangers and reckless warmongering from the US/UK/Israel Axis of barbarism. Not just excellent analysts like Mr. Bhadrakumar, Alastair Crook, but also Scott Ritter, Col. Douglas MacGregor, Larry Johnson, Ray McGovern, Pepe Escobar, Col. Lawrence Wilkerson, prof. M. Marandi and others have pointed out the high likelihood of another attack on Iran.
Iran must be kicking itself that it did not accept the Russian offer of S-400 systems previously. Rumors have it that either China and/or Russia are aiding Iran to put in missile defense as we speak. Who knows, but this is yet another extremely dangerous situation.
Netanyahu (and the West in general) is desperate and appears to be engaging in some sort of final Samson move, let’s just hope that this does not escalate into use of nuclear weapons. (so-called Samson Option)
Iran has the potential to destroy Israel if it attacks again, and they know it. That’s why we are concerned it will not end in total disaster.
Round two of the “twelve day war” is going to involve heavier and bloodier fighting.
If I remember correctly, based on the last public opinion polling I saw regarding this: most Americans view Iran unfavorably. Of course, this is thanks to our Jewish supremacist dominated mass media.
While the U.S. public is coming around nicely, with a small majority in favor of a Palestinian state, they’re floundering as it relates to Iran. (That’s how grotesque the footage of the carnage inflicted on the Palestinians has been, it’s even been able to somewhat penetrate the Zionist media filters!)
One trick pony. Yeah, blame everything on Jewish Supremacists. You always leave out White Supremacists, and Christian Zios etc.
The UK (and then US) meddling in Iran predates the state of Israel. Anti Iranian sentiment would be around even if there were no Israel. American is the “indispensable, exceptional nation”, everyone else is cannon fodder. If you think Israel is not being sacrificed for the Empire, you can go live in Tel Aviv and see how wonderful it’s gonna be.
It seems everyone is missing the point, Iran Mullahs if they get an atomic weapon they will use it, and then blackmail the rest of the Middle East
Israel should be careful what it wishes for. Iran held back the last time. If Israel wants to go all out, Iran can do that too. Perhaps the only possible outcome to the entire Israeli Zionist fever dream of a greater Israel and the ethnic cleansing that has now disgusted the entire world that is integral to it will be the final destruction of Israel itself. I think it will not be mourned.