ALASKA SUMMIT: If Moscow wants to avoid its own Vietnam in Ukraine, Putin may accept a “negotiated solution” that applies copious lipstick to the pig of actual defeat for the U.S., NATO and Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin with U.S. presidential envoy Steve Witkoff at the Kremlin on Aug. 6. Putin’s key aide Yuri Ushakov, in background. (Kremlin.ru/ Wikimedia Commons/CC BY 4.0)
By Ray McGovern
Special to Consortium News
How are the Russians approaching Friday’s summit with President Donald Trump? The short answer? With confidence, curiosity, some nervousness and a modicum of hope – despite the mercurial behavior of President Donald Trump.
This can be gleaned from applying the methodology of Kremlinology/media analysis – a discipline that seems to be an endangered species.
Trump had foolishly set a deadline of Aug. 8 for Russia to end the war in Ukraine, or else! It was a hollow threat, brandishing “bone-crushing” sanctions that were doomed to failure and embarrassment.
Two days before the latest deadline, Steve Witkoff, Trump’s envoy, arrived in Moscow to ask Russian President Vladimir Putin to help bail Trump out. Voila: There is to be an early summit — forget the sanctions!
It took Witkoff three hours to get Putin to agree to the summit. No doubt Witkoff had sweeteners for Putin; we may know more about that tomorrow.
But Trump’s climbdown on the misbegotten sanctions, and breakthrough of Ukrainian fortifications in Donetsk, may have been enough to prompt Putin to agree to meet – and size up – second-term Trump in person.
Would Trump, at long last, be able to understand and take into account the realities on the ground in Ukraine?
Trump at the White House last week. (White House /Joyce N. Boghosian)
Ukraine Must Take Back Seat to Rapprochement
The all-important backdrop, lost on many observers, is that Moscow’s fundamental, overriding aim is to improve relations with the U.S. I do not expect readers to take my word for it, but this might help. Here’s what Yuriy Ushakov, Putin’s right-hand man on Ukraine, gave pride of place to at the start of the readout from the Putin-Witkoff meeting:
“This meeting took place in a business-like atmosphere and was quite constructive. … The discussion focused on … resolving the Ukraine crisis. Once again, it was noted that Russia-US relations can be placed on a totally different, mutually beneficial footing, which would be in stark contrast with the way these relations have evolved in recent years.” [Emphasis added.]
Why should that surprise? Putin sees a possibly educable president who says he wants to deal; who keeps saying “this is Biden’s war;” who wants to claim credit for ending the killing; and, not least, is smart enough to realize he has been given a very poor hand to play.
Vladimir Putin
On March 27, while visiting a submarine in Murmansk, Putin was asked by a petty officer about talks between Russia and the U.S. Putin’s reply is typical of the attitude he has expressed on several occasions this year:
“The president of the United States sincerely wants to end this conflict for a number of reasons – I won’t even [list them] now, there are many. But, in my opinion, this is a sincere desire. … We are in favor of solving these issues by peaceful means, but also in the elimination of the root causes that led to today’s situation. We need to ensure security for Russia for a long historical perspective. Any step directed to solve this problem we will welcome, and we will work with any partner who aspires to do so.”
Foreign Minister Lavrov
Putin awarding Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov with the Order of St. Andrew in May. (Kremlin.ru/Wikimedia Commons/CC BY 4.0)
Sergey Lavrov has said some more tantalizing things on prospects for better relations, but old-pro Lavrov does not negotiate via the media. On July 11, the Russian foreign minister was asked about his 50-minute talk with Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the sidelines of the just concluded Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting in Malaysia.
Question: “Yesterday, after a meeting with you, U.S. State Secretary Marco Rubio said a new plan for Ukraine had been discussed. Which side proposed new approaches, what are they about, and what makes them fundamentally different from the previous ones? Are U.S. weapon supplies also part of the plan?”
Lavrov: “I will use President Trump’s words to answer your question ‘I’m not going to tell you. We are going to have a very big announcement to make.’ I’m not sure about a ‘big announcement,’ though, but you, as someone familiar with the diplomatic work and who often accompany us in our travels, know that there are things that are not commented on. Yes, we discussed Ukraine. …”
Rubio during the East Asia foreign ministers’ Meeting in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on July 11. (State Department/Freddie Everett)
Rubio was less tight-lipped. He said the U.S. and Russia exchanged new ideas for Ukraine peace talks after he met with his Russian counterpart in Malaysia. “I think it’s a new and a different approach,” Rubio told reporters after talks with Lavrov.
“I wouldn’t characterize it as something that guarantees a peace, but it’s a concept that, you know, that I’ll take back to the president. We need to see a roadmap moving forward about how this conflict can conclude. And then we shared some ideas about what that might look like. We’re going to continue to stay involved where we see opportunities to make a difference.”
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov
Sergey Ryabkov, Russian deputy minister of foreign affairs, addressing a disarmament conference in Geneva in March 2023. (UN Photo / Violaine Martin)
On Aug. 10, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, in an interview with Rossiya-1 TV, noted that “some sprouts of common sense are appearing in the dialogue with the U.S., which have been sorely lacking in recent months and years.”
Sprouts? This brought to mind what Putin said after his June 16, 2021, summit with former U.S. President Joe Biden in Geneva.
Asked if he had reached “a new level of trust” with President Biden, Putin quoted Leo Tolstoy:
“Tolstoy once said, there is no happiness in life, only lightening flashes of it — cherish them. I believe that in this situation some kind of family trust is not possible. However, it seems to me we have seen ‘lightening flashes’ of it.”
Putin was only too aware that the Military-Industrial-Congressional-Intelligence-Media-Academia-Think-Tank complex (MICIMATT) and other domestic political forces, have amply demonstrated their ability to poor cold water on many a hopeful “lightening flash.” For those interested in a fledging U.S.-Russia rapprochement, one can but hope that — as in nature – sprouts prove to be more long lasting than sparks.
Biden and Putin in Geneva, June 16, 2021, with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on left, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, right. (White House/ Adam Schultz)
Flexibility
I offer the above to suggest there is reason to expect some flexibility on the margins of the basic terms Putin set down in June 2024. If you believe, as I do, that Moscow wants to avoid creating its own Vietnam by going West of the Dnepr, you can foresee that Putin may eventually show enough flexibility to allow Trump to claim they “worked it out together.” It would be a “negotiated solution,” applying copious lipstick to the pig of actual defeat for U.S./NATO/Ukraine.
That kind of flexibility could also set the stage for eventual Russian agreement to a limited ceasefire, perhaps in return for a definitive NO to NATO membership for Ukraine, together with a promise to cease all military and intelligence support for Kyiv once and for all.
This was my best guess when TASS interviewed me several days ago. Guess is the key word. I would also guess that working groups on arms control issues may be created tomorrow.
Trump: Paragon of Unpredictability
Yogi Berra’s quip about how tough it is to make predictions — especially about the future — applies to Trump in spades. And in his case the future includes today and tomorrow. It is small solace that there does seem to be mutual agreement to meet again, next time in Russia.
Sadly, media analysis cannot provide much help, because there is no discipline. Suffice it to add that I believe Putin is correct in thinking Trump is “sincere” in trying to put “Biden’s war” behind him.
The Russians are also painfully aware of the formidable obstacles in his path toward rapprochement. If further fog were needed, State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce told the media yesterday that the Friday summit is “not a negotiation” (sic). (I pity the Russian intelligence briefer whom Putin asks to interpret that remark.)
Is It Just Me?
A comment beneath a comment I posted on X yesterday helped put things into better, wider perspective. “
“@LastBloomer” asked: “Hey Ray: is it just me? I am getting the vibe that the Financial Times is pining for a Trump failure. It is a win when leaders of nations can meet & discuss the cessation of war, is it not?”
Ray McGovern works with Tell the Word, a publishing arm of the ecumenical Church of the Saviour in inner-city Washington. His 27 years as a C.I.A. analyst included leading the Soviet Foreign Policy Branch and conducting the morning briefings of the President’s Daily Brief. In retirement he co-founded Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS).
Views expressed in this article and may or may not reflect those of Consortium News.
THANK YOU RAY FOR REMEMBERING SETH RICH during your interview with Glenn Diesen.
At about 40 minutes: hxxps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hr5iqzrmME
The FBI still refuses to release Rich’s laptop.
hxxps://uncoverdc.com/2025/03/06/speculation-grows-over-fbi-decision-to-continue-to-withhold-seth-rich-records
I hope this leads to Hillary being tried for murder and Obama being indicted for treason.
12.13.24: *“How to properly ask a saint for protection, healing and prosperity”
Andrei Pervozvanny aka ”Saint Andrew the Apostle, is considered the patron saint of Russia & recognized for his role as one of the first disciples of Jesus. St. Andrew was the first and only one of Christ’s disciples who brought the message of Christianity to the lands of future Russia; and St. Andrew is honored through the “Order of St. Andrew the Apostle,” the highest order of chivalry in Russia, established in 1698 by Tsar Peter the Great.”
Photographed, above, is “President Putin awarding Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov with the Order of St. Andrew in May.”
…. “Emperor Peter the Great paid tribute to the saint in his time. During the foundation of St. Petersburg, the sovereign laid an ark with a part of the relics of St. Andrew in the fortress on Hare Island. In addition, Peter I established in the name of the saint the first state award of the Russian Empire – the Imperial Order of St. Andrew the Apostle, which is still considered one of the most honorable rewards awarded for exceptional services to the Fatherland.”
….12.13.24 @ hxxps://en.iz.ru/en/1804965/sofia-tokareva/andrei-pervozvanny-memorial-day-why-he-became-heavenly-patron-saint-russia-what-pray-today (In Russia, St. Andrew “is honored as the patron saint of our state and the heavenly protector of sailors. On the day of the church celebration, it is customary to go to service in the temple and congratulate men named Andrew on their namesakes. What is known about the Orthodox path and feats of St. Andrew and why the apostle is one of the most revered saints in the Russian Orthodox Church – in the material “Izvestia,” a daily broadsheet newspaper in Russia, founded in 1917, originally as the official organ of the Soviet government. The name “Izvestia” means “news” in Russian, and it has a history of covering significant political events in Russia.”
“An oblique cross with a figurine of the saint, the letters SAPR, which means Sanctus Andreus Patronus Russiae, translated from Latin as “Saint Andrew, patron Saint of Russia”. Concluding, “we, the people,” need to “establish” in the same vein, “naming the saint,” Sanctus Veterans Intelligence Professionals for Sanity Patronus America, St. VIPS.
Let’s do, America’s BEST, first! The letters, “VIPS” mean patron “Saint of Intelligence!!!” Heart & Bones! A “Supernova” that can transcend the Divided $tates of Corporate America, an Empire, under the rule of Tyrant-asaurus Trump-Vance, Inc., into a United States of America rockin’ a higher level of consciousness. The motto “All power to the people.”
TY, Ray McGovern!!! Not for nothin; but, your humor, sarcasm, knowledge, f/eh, your “lived-experience” is absophknlutely an international & national treasure. Imo, Trump-Vance, Inc., “got” their envoy, Steve “Cheshire Cat” Witkoff. Trump-Vance, Inc., NEED, a Delegation of Statesman w/an extraordinary skill set in diplomacy, i.e., VIPS!!!
Oh, how “we” wish you were there,” The Summit. Host: Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska.
Onward & Upwards!
Ray, what does a “definitive NO” look like? You know, and I know, and the Russians know, that the US can’t be trusted to honor any agreement or promise or treaty. As Chas Freeman pointed out the other day, the US no longer practices any kind of diplomacy. Its a gang of violent-minded simpletons practicing dumb arrogance.
Very well put – you are quite correct. The US wanting better relation with Russia? – no way. The US will continue to see Russia as a country to be vanquished. Russia must never trust any US proposal or agreement. Perhaps, if we are not all wiped out, a new generation of American politicians will see the past errors and want a peacful trusting world.
The forces that want Russia to be an enemy, that hold on to regime change strategies are far greater and have guided Trump’s actions as president during both terms. A Korea-like standoff is what the collective West is hoping to bait Putin into accepting in exchange for the territory they now control.
The summit will be a failure for Trump and media success for Putin. Yet Russian economy is in a precarious state, war is horribly expensive. What can Trump offer is simbolic, his hands are tied up. He’has sold himself and all his family to Zionists and Zionists’s aim is to incapacitate Russia.
thank you Ray for your always wise insights. If only you had a wider readership. I do share your writings with friends. Keep on doing your writings and works for peace Blessings and thanks, Carolyn Grassi
I find the Vietnam analogy to be very odd, and not very accurate. Some key differences.
Russia is winning a conventional war of attrition. The USA was at best playing whack-a-mole on various insurgent groups as the popped up, fought, then faded back into the jungle in a guerrilla war. The USA had its usual PR BS illusions of victory, constantly claiming there was a “light at the end of the tunnel”. This is very different from an army that is winning a conventional war and has been regularly pushing back the Ukrainian front. Also, Ukraine is at this time a conscription army from a government led by a dictator. There is not a lot of popular support, as best illustrated by the Presidents horror at the notion of holding elections. This is also very different from a popular organizing force that was fighting off an invading Yankee Army via a people’s movement.
And, one key difference. Russia appears to have a good idea of what victory will look like, and is moving towards that goal. America, as is now become the usual standard, had no idea of what winning in Vietnam would look like or how they would get there.
A nation that is winning a conventional war of attrition is not at all a very good comparison to a nation that was losing a guerrilla war. But, this does reflect the view of the American Deep States (there are at least two) which continue to hold on to an illusion that Russia is actually being defeated in this war. In America, there are some things that are not allowed to be changed by mere elections.
I was preparing to comment exactly on the same lines, but after reading your analysis, I can only say I rest my case.
Thanks, Ben. I think “by going West of the Dnepr” is the key phrase here, Best regards, Ray
“If you believe, as I do, that Moscow wants to avoid creating its own Vietnam by going West of the Dnepr, you can foresee that Putin may eventually show enough flexibility to allow Trump to claim they “worked it out together.”
I do see where there is a rhyme with Vietnam to the extent that right now all the fighting is in the parts of Ukraine that are now part of Russia and a population that wants to be part of Russia. Once Russia crosses the Rubicon, er Deniper, the Russians will begin to move into parts of Ukraine that do not want to be part of Russia. The population west of the Deniper would certainly bring a guerrilla/insurgency campaign to Russia that is currently not in play due to the areas the fighting is currently taking place in.
Simply excellent comment from you, I couldn’t agree more with it. Putin is so confident of his position and has no doubts that Russia enjoys a upper hand in many strategic issues that he went to Alaska like he is going home, or rather to a long abandoned home. Putin is all too aware of American presidential revolving doors even long before Trump’s debut around it to give it any extra weightage in his nostalgic excursion to Alaska.
Ever time dear leader gets close to Putin he is way out of his dept, and he begged for the meeting. What is it they say about fools Ray?
“It’s better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt.
You almost killed by with the “possibly educable” comment. Nice!
As a young man, 23 I got involved with the union I was in. What an education I received and helped form up my world views after I ETSed the Army.
Noting your reply to Ben reminded me of something I learned 54 years ago.
Allowing the other to save face can work miracles in the right circumstances.
I don’t believe Putin is any mood for this type of BS at this point. Being former intelligence I figure he is about to teach the totals incompetent American leader a lesson or two.
Why, you may ask. Right after Putin took over in Russia the U.S. and others made sport of trying to get his ‘goat’! Around 1990 during talks he got fed bad info.or purposely misled by NATO officials, IMO. 33 years later, the neocons, Blackrock and company reneged on that misrepresentation of facts and. pushed Putin into invading Ukraine out of desperation, IMHO!
We Americans must get a basic understanding of world politics or suffer the consequences. This is not my opinion but a solid observation of the current world state of politics.
Stay safe Ray and give them the hell they so rightfully deserve!
All this talk of a settlement in the face of global arms buildup and past broken promises and accords, I am so hopeful …not!
Isn’t the real purpose of Trump to go after China and doesn’t that mean not being bogged down in Ukraine?
The big question of the day — will the military industrial complex and everything it entails, contracts, careerism, massive political influence, etc., allow for a detente between Washington and its most profitable enemy.
For without the caricature of the evil Kremlin the justification for the MIC’s budget and power evaporates.