The black-eye given Russian security services will eventually heal while the artful destruction of a handful of bombers – like earlier high-profile, but misguided operations – will have zero effect on the war in Ukraine.
The TU-160, one of the types of Russian strategic bombers Ukraine claims were damaged, seen here over Moscow, Victory Day 2014. (Alex Beltyukov/Wikimedia Commons)
By Ray McGovern
Special to Consortium News
Ukraine’s drone attacks on air bases deep inside Russia on Sunday were timed to provoke Russia into shunning the Russia-Ukraine talks set for the next day in Istanbul. Volodymyr Zelensky and his European puppeteers also may have thought they could provoke Vladimir Putin to escalate attacks on Ukraine to such a degree that the U.S. could not “walk away” from Ukraine without appearing cowardly.
The PR benefits of destroying Russian aircraft far from Ukraine was part of Kyiv’s calculus. It was a huge embarrassment and a tactical victory in a short-lived, narrow sense.
But the black-eye given Russian security services will eventually heal. Most important, the artful destruction of a handful of bombers – like earlier high-profile, but misguided operations – will have zero effect on the war in Ukraine.
Doing Diplomacy For Once
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio immediately after the drone attacks on the Russian air bases and the sabotage/destruction of two rail bridges in Russia earlier that day.
The Russian readout said that Secretary Rubio “conveyed sincere condolences on the civilian casualties from the rail infrastructure blasts in Russia’s Bryansk and Kursk regions.” This is a sign that Lavrov did not come in with accusatory guns blazing, so to speak.
It does seem certain that Lavrov asked Rubio whether he knew of the drone attacks beforehand. And what did President Trump know?
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In my view, it is conceivable that neither had prior knowledge. When the drone operation was planned the geniuses working for Joe Biden were in charge of such things – the ones who destroyed the Nord Stream pipelines.
Most likely the U.S. was kept informed, but the operation itself bears the earmarks of the sabotage the British are so fond of carrying out – with particular lust after bridges.
They did so famously during World War II and they are quite good at it. Then, as now, such sabotage had little-to-no effect on the war – merely a transitory strengthening of their proverbial upper lip.
The Talks Went On, and Will Continue
Putin and Donald Trump wanted the negotiations in Istanbul to proceed, and those were their instructions to Lavrov and Rubio. They did, and with some tangible progress on small, but significant matters like the exchange of bodies. There was a highly important exchange of papers on the terms sought by each side, and a pledge to study them before the next meeting.
Bottom Line
The driving issue is bigger than Ukraine. Both Trump and Putin want improved U.S.-Russia relations. Other matters, including Ukraine, are secondary. As of now, at least, both sides seek a negotiated settlement to the war as the primary option.
And each side will do its best to avoid escalation and show a measured flexibility – and even patience – until such time as Ukraine’s army disintegrates.
It appears that this will happen soon. I believe that, at that point, Putin will be happy to supply as much lipstick as may be needed to conceal the pig of defeat for Ukraine-and-the-West.
Ray McGovern’s first portfolio as a C.I.A. analyst was Sino-Soviet relations. In 1963, their total trade was $220 MILLION; in 2023, $227 BILLION. Do the math.
Views expressed in this article may or may not reflect those of Consortium News.
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With the utmost respect for Ray, based on the news today of the massive air strikes Putin ordered in retaliation I’d say he is sending everyone involved a rather stern warning.
You are the best Ray , hands down.
Thank you Ray for your wise words. If only those in power, here and in Europe would listen to you. Wish Tulsi Gabbard would stand up for peace. Keep on writing, speaking, protesting for peace.
Both the SALT and New Start Treaties require that strategic bombers be parked in open space, attacking them constitutes a treaty violation. Most reports indicate that perhaps 5 or 6 old TU-95s were destroyed as well as one transport. There is no evidence that any TU-160 (pictured above) was damaged.
Yeah, with Trump and Rubio, it is hard to verify that they know anything, since there never seem to be any empirical signs that they might. At least with Biden, we knew that it was impossible from a medical standpoint.
To be fair, though, they are all working with some of the greatest disinformation services in the world.
It seems incredible that such an extensive operation could have been carried out without the knowledge of the U.S. President, but such may be the case when the Deep State can do as it pleases. Moreover, there are neocon elements within the administration who literally lust after a big war with Russia, even a nuclear one.
Exactly, and more and more it is pointing to Trump’s lack of knowledge and control of Ukraine and Europe’s efforts to undermine and sabotage his attempts to make peace with Russia. It might help if he bothered to attend the daily ‘intelligence’ briefings, but apparently he doesn’t.
It is just another sign of the rapidly waning power of the US empire.
Nonetheless, a head’s gotta roll.
If you don’t mind, which heads are you referring to, I’m curious.
Ukraine’s “Spider’s Web”, hitting targets as far west as the Olenya Air Base to the ironically named Ukrainka Base in the East, with two of the attacks on the outskirts of Moscow, has all the earmarks of a combined Washington/London/West Jerusalem dark op. The champagne in those cities must still be flowing. Yet, such celebrations may come at a heavy price. There can be no excusing Russia’s security network for having allowed a terrible blow, and it is obvious that some changes in personnel are in order, but they are not to be judged too harshly since the attacks are so dangerously provocative that the word reckless does not suffice. They also highlight Russia and its leadership as having shown a combination of determination and the restraint appropriate to a nation with a large arsenal of both nuclear and conventional arms making the West’s behavior once again reveal itself as desperate. It was an operation in keeping with the dark op that destroyed the Nord Stream Pipeline, an earlier example of too much cleverness combined with too much lack of responsibility. Russia could have created a large crater where the city of Kiev still stands relatively unscathed. This is a difficult moment. The open and alarming question for strategists in Moscow is whether or not they allow themselves to be baited into a dangerous escalation that will elicit an even greater response or appear to be cast as paper tiger. This citizen of our planet votes on the side of continuing restraint.
If the DT wants improved relations, where is the evidence besides empty rhetoric? How long are folks going to believe the lies of a cognitively-challenged conman?
I see no substantive policy shift, whatsoever. DT has threatened Russia, continued sanctions on Russia, attacks Russia’s allies, ramps up trade wars, continues the Genocide of Palestine, etc. nothing has changed except the line of BS.
The demands of the DT2 regime of Russia demonstrate profound ignorance, hubris, and incompetence.
No new treaties have been suggested, no restoration of past treaties that the US tore up (ABM, INF)
It was the DT1 regime who tore up the INF treaty and LIED about it, blaming Russia.
The US continues to cover for the illegitimate Zelensky regime, continues to support the regime with intelligence, logistics and materials as well as political cover. The “good cop” “bad cop” routine of the US on the one hand and the UK (with EU vassals) on the other is obvious and the Russians have not fallen for it.
I applaud Mr. McGovern for working for peace, however wishful thinking and hopeful speculation is not going to help.
Brilliant analysis as always by the smartest person in any room , anywhere
Ray is THE best!ra
Sensible heads prevail.
Thankyou, R Mc