Moscow’s military campaign under Putin’s leadership has focused on avoiding escalation, says John Wight. But Ukraine’s drone strike deep into Russian territory is a gauntlet thrown down.
Russian President Vladimir Putin during a meeting in Moscow last month. (Kremlin)
By John Wight
Special to Consortium News
Russian President Vladimir Putin now finds himself at a monumental crossroads when it comes to his stewardship of Russia at a time when nuclear Armageddon has never been closer.
Ukraine’s devastatingly successful and audacious strike against Russia’s long-range strategic bomber aircraft stock marks a major inflection point in a conflict that evidences no sign of ending.
But let us not lose sight of the salient fact that Russia is not engaged in a conflict with President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Ukraine. This is instead a conflict pitting the Russian Federation against NATO, with Ukraine a proxy of the latter. And NATO is taking advantage of Putin’s caution.
No consequential conflict has ever been won by half-measures. General William Sherman’s “March to the Sea” arguably did more to break the Confederacy than President Abraham Lincoln’s famed Emancipation Proclamation. The Allies firebombing of Dresden in February 1945 and the Soviets arrival on the outskirts of Berlin on April 25, 1945, did more to break the back of the Germans than Hitler’s suicide nine days later. The Vietnamese won their national liberation with the fully-committed and symbolically important Tet Offensive of 1968 rather than all of the diplomatic machinations that came thereafter.
Russia’s military campaign at Putin’s direction has placed a priority on avoiding escalation. But it is a posture that has invited escalation, evidenced by this latest major turn of events.
Vasyl Malyuk, head of Ukraine’s security service, the SBU, viewing satellite images of Russian military airfields, clockwise — Olenya, Ivanovo Severny, Ukrainka, Belaya, and Dyagilevo — and photos of strategic bombers Tu-95MS, left, and Tu-22M3, right. (Ssu.gov.ua/ Wikimedia Commons /CC BY 4.0)
Russia has been fighting the West diplomatically but not militarily, while Ukraine under Zelensky has been waging its conflict with Russia in the name of the strategic aims of NATO, rather than the interests of Ukraine and its people.
Russia is at a decisive point. Does it continue its war carefully to avoid confrontation with NATO, while encouraging its continued provocations, or does it take the hardline approach of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the late outspoken leader of Russia’s Wagner Group, who made repeated demands for national mobilization in the name of a speedy victory dictated by Russia’s far superior mass and weight of industrial potential.
Ukraine’s June 1 drone attack ona Russian airfield. (Ssu.gov.ua / Wikimedia Commons / CC BY 4.0)
Putin is a deft leader. Even his adversaries in the corridors of power in the West would grudgingly admit this given his long record in power in the Kremlin. It was he who dragged Russia out of the free market abyss into which the country and its people were plunged in the wake of the demise of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s.
Putin’s Rebuilding of Russia
In the process, Putin succeeded in restoring the primacy of the state over a new rising Russian economic oligarchy — one that had been happy to allow the masses of the Russian people into the arms of destitution and despair because of its own greed and corruption.
The Russian leader then set about rebuilding state institutions that had been destroyed in the name of the religion of free market capitalism, with the result that slowly but surely a new state emerged from the ashes of the old. Russia regained pride in a new identity embraced the indispensable role of the Soviet Union in defeating the Nazis in World War II with respect for the pre-Bolshevik role of the Russian Orthodox church as a pillar of spiritual stability and social cohesion.
From the Russian standpoint, this is why Putin is credited as their historical version of Franklin Delano Roosevelt, the U.S. president who likewise saved his country from the abyss during the 1930s, when the Great Depression was at its terrible and destructive zenith and then went on to lead the bulk of the U.S. war effort during World War II.
But Putin has, it appears, misread the West’s resolve in this period of the rapidly shifting tectonic plates of geopolitics. Putin’s reasoning has been the avoidance of escalation to direct military conflict with the collective Western powers. However those powers are already heavily involved in the arming, training and direction of Kiev’s war effort.
Zelensky at a meeting with Jens Stoltenberg, the former NATO secretary general, in Kiev in April 2024. (President of Ukraine/Flickr)
So where now and what now?
Ukraine’s devastating drone strike deep into Russian territory is a gauntlet thrown down. Will Russia under Putin’s leadership ever be able to persevere to the point of claiming a clear victory? Or has Ukraine under the leadership of Zelensky just changed the dynamic to the point of proving to the collective West that he is a leader worthy of continued support to the point of victory at all cost?
President Donald Trump’s dressing down of the Ukrainian leader in the Oval Office back in March was driven and motivated by the belief that Ukraine’s war effort was faltering. Zelensky in this context appeared isolated, adrift and weak.
Well, not anymore.
VLADIMIR PUTIN??:
‘They invented that Russia wants to attack NATO. Have you completely lost your minds? Dumb as this table? It’s nonsense. Utter rubbish.’
‘It would be rubbish if it wasn’t a plan just to trick their own population by saying ‘Help! Russia is going to attack… https://t.co/BdkYZJd4Mw pic.twitter.com/yHaCQcueN4
— Afshin Rattansi (@afshinrattansi) June 3, 2025
As these words are being written, reports of heavy Russian air and missile strikes against targets across Ukraine are emerging. The famous quote of the French revolutionary thinker and agitator, Louis Antoine de Saint-Just springs to mind: “Those who make revolution halfway only dig their own grave.” Substitute the word “war” for revolution and this is the point at which Putin and the Kremlin have arrived. But how far can Russia go before all-out war with NATO and its potential, dreadful consequences?
Beware of small states, as throughout history it is they who have dragged the world into major conflict. Zelensky, when viewed in this light, knows that Ukraine cannot forever stand against Russia’s superior manpower and mass. He knows that to stand any chance of emerging from this conflict with a result at the end, he must drag the West into direct conflict with Moscow sooner rather than later.
World War III is the only road to victory that lies open to him. For the rest of us, it is the road to hell.
John Wight, author of Gaza Weeps, 2021, writes on politics, culture, sport and whatever else. Please consider making a donation in order to help fund his efforts. You can do so here. You can also grab a copy of his book, This Boxing Game: A Journey in Beautiful Brutality, from all major booksellers, and his novel Gaza: This Bleeding Land from same. Please consider taking out a subscription at his Medium site.
The views expressed are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of Consortium News.
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A misconception in Western circles is that the Bolsheviks were anti-religion. Actually, given that the Church was a major landowner and oppressor of the Russian peasantry, the Bolsheviks and the enraged peasantry treated the Church the same as the Russian nobility. And, it was not organized Bolsheviks that murdered the clergy, but ‘pissed-off’ peasants.
Communism was itself a kind of religion complete with social behaviors and an eschatology of communism as the end state with “the withering away of the State.” Much of this dogma was not contradictory in any way to Orthodox Christianity, and when the USSR ended, it was a spiritual shock as communism no longer held sway and captured attention.
Thus, we see the rapid emergence of the Orthodox Church. It never went away and was available to fill the vacuum.
I admire Putin’s, Russia’s patience. How much longer? The war mongers want war – the rest of us DON’T! And how much longer will this be allowed to ‘fester’ before inevitably blowing up?
Although the Russian border forces messed up and the military have been complacent, I don’t believe this attack should be over egged.
The meat grinder has been remarkably successful and although a significant retaliation is called for and lessons need to be learned, I don’t believe Russia should overly panic.
Once the peace talks have collapsed, as they surely will, Russia should consider taking Odessa and isolating Ukraine from the black sea. This amputation would probably be fatal and thus speed the end of the war.
That the Brits were bragging of their success, tells us that even with the complete destruction of the Ukrainian army, the attacks would continue. Britain, Germany and America will fight Russia down to the very last Ukrainian, and then some.
It is easy (and false) to personalize the Ukraine conflict and focus on Vladimir Putin but this kind of analysis,
so common in the West, denies the documented history going back to the ” Orange Revolution”, the
“Maidan Revolution”, the memo of then Ambassador William Burns “Nyet Means Nyet” and
indeed the events of the 1960’s and actions of the Clinton administration in the 1960’s. It fails to
acknowledge the violent actions of far right groups, the murder of 14-15,ooo ethnic Russians as
well as the participation and funding by American private and public sources.
The escalation this drone attack represents is open to interpretation. It could consolidate the the notion that Ukraine’s military has the capacity to undertake offensive actions while maintaining its defensive lines and it is therefore functioning in good order. Alternatively the bombing of potentially nuclear cargo could be interpreted as as one of the last cards left in the Ukraine arsenal a desperate measure by a military that is on the verge of collapse. This attack clearly demonstrates the willingness of the Ukraine and its partners to countenance a nuclear exchange. To say that this is wreckless and suicidal is an understatement. One can only hope that the strategic patience of the RF is maintained but that measures are taken to ensure security of all nuclear and biological facilities (which would be good for the world). One can only imagine that this attack is going to strengthen the resolve of the RF and its allies and it presents a clear dichotomy to the rest of the world about the character of the opposing forces at play and which side they may need to align with as events unfold.
Any obvious retaliation by Russia will be seized upon by the west and used to justify further escalation, but Russia plays a long game, one that the west doesn’t understand, and has undoubtedly made preparations for such a provocative incident and its options for response.
Given that Russia has two armies, of around 250,000 soldiers, in reserve, ready for deployment, suggests to me that it will now put them into the field and accelerate the pace -a lot, while at the same time ramping up decapitation strikes on the command and control centres and some of the top leadership.
For now, I don’t think they will go for Zelenskyy directly, instead targeting those close to him, to weaken his ability to lead. Any direct attack on him would almost certainly provoke further escalation by the west, and provide the excuse they want.
It is obvious that the west is desperate to keep escalating, but cannot do so openly and obviously – unless presented with an excuse. Part of Putin’s strategy has been to deny them that excuse, and I don’t expect that to change because he knows full well that it would very rapidly turn into a nuclear war.
There are much cooler heads in Moscow than elsewhere in Washington, London, or Berlin, and it is only them that keeps us from a nuclear exchange. Few in the west fully understand just how dangerous this is, and how careful the Russians have to be in their responses. Internally, Putin will now be facing mounting pressure to strike directly at the West, but that would be suicide in my view, and I think he will resist it.
thank you John, so sad that in the U.S. no protests or outcries, ….this terrible situation that you write about goes unnoticed even among so called progressives….the endless unseen horrible wars after wars “when will we ever learn” A bow of thanks to you.
Let’s cut to the chase. This is a war between Russia and fascism. NATO is a fascist organization designed to prop fascism up after WWll. It seems WWll never really ended. The West was hoping the Nazis would defeat the Soviets (Russia). Thus after the Red Army destroyed them, the Cold War ramped up.
Western bankers have salivated over Russia’s vast resources and will bring us to the brink of nuclear annihilation to take them. This is a confrontation between Western imperialism and the notion of the sovereignty of nations. Abolish NATO. Abolish imperialism. Abolish fascism. Let the world live in peace.
Clearly, Germany was defeated but the Nazis were not.
I never like to advocate for more war or more violence, but after three an a half years of this NATO proxy war on Russia using Ukraine it seems that Russia has no choice but to bombard Kiev, take out Ukraine’s leadership and end the conflict militarily. Western/US perfidy, depravity and greed know no bounds. America cannot be trusted. Going back to its founding, even before its founding actually, the USA has never been a country that acts honestly. The Nez Perce and the Lakota, to name two of countless examples, can vouch for that. Iran, too, is a contemporary example of a country that has learned that America’s words and even its treaties have no value. Russia has done the sensible thing in turning away from the West toward China and the Global Majority. Now, after NATO and the USA have used Ukraine to attack its nuclear deterrence, Russian needs to finish off the Ukraine proxy war, abandon the West entirely and go with China toward a new multipolar world via BRICS. This may be the only hope for the future of humanity as a whole.
The war-mongerers in Washington, who have been leading Zelenski around by the nose, may now have gone too far. Retired Lt Col Larry Wilkerson has noted that his confidants in the defense dept. say the U.S. clearly led the way for these attacks on Russia’s nuclear war planes, and that Putin may see this as crossing the ultimate red line. He also notes Russia has more nukes than anyone. It is simply incomprehensible that anyone thinks a nuclear war can be won, but apparently these so-called chicken-hawks believe just that. We shall be lucky indeed if this recklessness doesn’t blow up in our faces.
If Russia was to win the war with Ukraine by slaughtering millions and destroying the country completely, it would have the problem of controlling an embittered and hostile population and rebuilding a large country. So maybe Russia’s caution recognizes the pyrrhic victory this could turn out to be. Delaying a resolution allows for the greater possibility of NATO intervention so that’s not the best choice either. Some sort of decisive decapitating strike to out match the boldness of the recent attacks by Ukraine? Only speculating , no idea obviously.
This article goes along with the western media hype like ‘devastating blow to Russia’ and pretending that this whole operation was carried out by ‘Ukraine’.
Yes, they did the actual operation but the way the UK media IMMEDIATELY bragged and provided photographs, real or fake, shows you who was actually behind it.
And, apparently to a treaty these nuclear capable planes have to be left out in the open so that satellites can see them. All sides are watching each other.
And ‘the West’ is busy arming to fight Russia …
Yes, they do a lot of talking but have no money nor immediate industrial capacity, nor popular appetite for war.
After significant events like this drone strike everybody should take a deep breath and let some facts filter through before making big statements.
the images in the above picture are indeed ‘satellite images’. ukraine has no satellites, afaik. despite all the reassurances of trump and rubio that they didn’t know (which would make it worse, imo), the russians must realise that the western system of which they would very much like to be part of is unsustainable and the major threat to the world. some occasional leaders and factions might have good intentions from time to time, but the belligerent tendency to compete will always get the upper hand. russia must explain the situation to its population (and the population of the global south) and ask a mandate for ‘first use’. mr putin, alas, has to walk back his above comments about ‘nonsense’ and ‘rubbish’. people in the west (not politicians and ‘entrepreneurs’) might agree, but the system they’re in, doesn’t. best case scenario is a return to the cold war (including iron curtain), preferred by the west (every action of the west seemed to be aimed at this win-win for western interests: russia collapses or we return to the cold war, which was good for the system). russia and its allies must start the work on the impossible: plan for a winnable nuclear confrontation (the west obviously has held those creatures alive somewhere in the catacombes of the pentagon and think-tanks), which would probably involve a first strike (preferably with the support of the global population).
This remarkable column is the first to recognize Putin’s FDR-level role in rescuing Russia from the excesses of the free market in the 1990s (I saw this first-hand as the first Fulbright Professor teaching business in 1991).
But I want to challenge: “Russia is not engaged in a conflict with President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Ukraine. This is instead a conflict pitting the Russian Federation against NATO, with Ukraine a proxy of the latter. And NATO is taking advantage of Putin’s caution.”
While NATO and Biden stopped Zelinsky’s negotiations before the invasion, demanding the war, it was Ukraine’s, not NATO’s actions that drove Russia. It was Ukraine, much more than Russia, that broke the Minsk accords by building up the Azov Brigade’s increasing attacks on the many Russians in the Donbas. And it was the NATO buildup and large military exercise in Ukraine, not Poland and elsewhere in Europe, that Russia most feared.
Thank You John
For centuries, Russia’s western border was the Dnieper River River. Returning to that border would alleviate the present warfare, would it not?.
NATO and the U.S. are wild beasts compared with cautious Russia. But after this, it may turn out to be FAFO, when the Oreshniks come flying.