The agreement, marking what must be the finest hour of Ukrainian nationalism, shatters the Russian dream of a neutral borderland, writes M.K. Bhadrakumar.
U.S. President Donald Trump with Ukraine’s President Volodymy Zelensky in Paris on Dec. 7, 2024. (President of Ukraine/Flickr/Public Domain)
By M.K. Bhadrakumar
Indian Punchline
Moscow and Kiev have been vying with each other to curry favour with the new U.S. administration. Just as Russian diplomacy appeared to be outstripping Kiev, things changed dramatically on April 30 with the signing of the so-called minerals deal between the U.S. and Ukraine in Washington.
Weeks of tense bargaining preceded the conclusion of the agreement, which at one point disrupted U.S. aid for Ukraine. But the latter showed extraordinary grit, tenacity and tact to hang on and, eventually, extracted out of the Trump administration what President Vladimir Zelensky called a “truly equal” deal. This must be the finest hour of Ukrainian nationalism and underscores that the country is far from a write-off on the geopolitical chessboard.
To be sure, Zelensky has emerged as a statesman of reckoning, having consolidated his standing in the powerful nationalist camp that may set at rest any speculations of a regime change in Kiev. Even Moscow seems to sense this unnerving reality, which will have profound consequences for a peace settlement in Ukraine, given the evolution of Ukraine’s animus against Russia, and most important, Ukraine’s integration into the Western alliance.
The symbolism in the invitation extended by the Vatican to Zelensky for Pope Francis’ funeral and the Sistine Chapel turning into the venue of a crucial meeting between him and Trump is self-evident. Clearly, the Great Schism of 1054, the break in communion between the Catholic Church and the Eastern Orthodox Church [which is in Ukraine] mutating. This is one thing.
If the trend gets reinforced, it will make the job easier for Britain, France and Germany — the bastions of Anglican Church, Catholicism and Protestantism respectively — to push ahead their determination to navigate Ukraine’s future identity as a Praetorian guard of European security with by far the most powerful army (and battle-hardened, too) in the continent.
Deal Affects Three Key Areas
Ukraine’s First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other officials at the signing of the U.S.-Ukraine minerals agreement in Washington, D.C. on April 30. (Kmu.gov.ua/ Wikimedia Commons /CC BY 4.0)
Arguably, therefore, the minerals deal reboots the Western alliance system. Its impact will be felt on three key templates — the nature and content of the U.S. presence in Ukraine, the trajectory of the war and Russian geo-strategies.
It is a moot point whether or not U.S. President Donald Trump has shown his hands as to whether an investment deal of such magnitude is workable right on Russia’s doorstep without some sort of military underpinning. Trump’s own preference may be to follow China’s example in Africa but then, his successors in the Oval Office would have other thoughts.
But this presupposes that Russians do not push the envelope — in which case, Trump (or his successors) may not hesitate to put boots on the ground. Make no mistake, the minerals deal comes within the First Circle of Trump’s MAGA dossier.
The minerals deal will significantly shift the locus of the Ukraine war. There is a popular myth that Russia controls the bulk of Ukraine’s mineral wealth, whereas, the reality is that Ukraine’s mineral resources are only peripherally in the Donbass region annexed by Russia.
The graphic in a well-documented article titled Ukraine’s resources. Critical raw materials by the NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence shows the vast spread of Ukraine’s mineral resources, much of it in the western side of the Dnieper River.
Russian Intentions?
Ukraine war territory map as of April 29, 2025, showing Russian territory in red, Ukrainian in yellow. (Viewsridge /Wikimedia Commons /CC BY-SA 4.0)
The big question is about Russian intentions going forward. Put differently, is Russia satisfied with the four regions of Novorossiya and Crimea that it has annexed so far?
The point is, there is sufficient ground to speculate that with a long-term Western presence, including American presence, looming over Ukraine, Moscow may decide to secure the Black Sea coastline and create a buffer zone in Ukraine on the eastern side of Dnieper River. Regions of Odessa, Mykolayiv, Sumy and Kharkov may get drawn into the conflict. Of course, top Russian officials have publicly voiced revanchist opinions that may also have resonance within their far-flung country with 11 time zones.
Even Kiev may fall in the Russian cross-hairs under certain dire circumstances such as a collapse of President Vladimir Putin’s strategy of Ukraine’s “de-nazification” and “demilitarisation.” Russia anticipates that the U.S. (and the European allies) will continue to support the (hostile) Ukrainian regime’s military capability and has no qualms about the Kiev’s regime’s affinities with the Nazi ideology. Suffice it to say, the minerals deal shatters the Russian dream of a neutral Ukraine.
Put differently, Russia may have to learn to live with an unfriendly regime in Ukraine which is under Western protection. Will Moscow accept such an outcome of the war, which amounts to a colossal failure to achieve any of the major objectives of the special military operations?
Equally, the chances of the Western sanctions being lifted are virtually nil for a foreseeable future. Even if Trump wants the sanctions to go, the U.S. Congress may not allow it nor the U.S.’ European allies. Even if the U.S. president has given some secret understanding to Putin that the U.S. will block Ukraine’s NATO membership, therefore, that is only a line in the sand.
The bottomline is that although the minerals deal is of immense consequence to Europe and Ukraine, the trajectory of the war will largely depend on Russia and the U.S.
The good part is that both Russia and the U.S. want the war to end and neither wants a confrontation. However, there remains an intractable contradiction insofar as Trump will be in a tearing hurry to freeze the conflict as quickly as possible so that Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territory is limited to the present front lines and secondly, the peace dividend becomes available for garnering by Wall Street during his presidency, the defeat in the war at the hands of Russia notwithstanding.
The big carrot that Trump is (verbally) holding out is his willingness to recognise the Crimea as part of Russia. But it means Russia giving up the objectives of having control of the territories of Donbass and Novorossiya per the regions’ original boundaries, something that Putin had outlined in his June 14 speech last year at the Russian Foreign Ministry while demanding a unilateral withdrawal of Ukrainian forces as a precondition for negotiations with Kiev.
Meanwhile, Zelensky, who has lately begun to openly claim responsibility for assassinating Russian generals in Moscow, is seething with revanchist notions. All this will be a bitter pill to swallow for Russia.
Weighing on the growing spectre that the hard-fought war may only lead to an inconclusive and inherently fragile peace, the Kremlin may well decide to accelerate its military operations for an outright military victory in Ukraine and dictate its terms of peace that fulfill its strategic objectives from a long term perspective well beyond the Trump presidency.
There is a strong possibility that Trump’s honeymoon with the Kremlin leader may be ending. Indeed, Trump’s own approach to the Ukraine question has a history that is traceable to his first term, which is, alas, rarely explored and remains enigmatic.
That said, it must also be factored in that historically, Russia’s foreign policy objectives were never about territorial conquest or about glory — but about achieving objectives. As Timofey Bordachev, program director of the Kremlin-linked Valdai Club wrote this week for RT,
“Often, this (achieving objectives) means exhausting adversaries rather than crushing them outright… This mindset explains Russia’s readiness to negotiate at every stage: politics always outweighs military concerns. Foreign and domestic policy are inseparable, and every foreign venture is also a bid to strengthen internal cohesion, just as the medieval princes of Moscow used external threats to unite the Russian lands…
“Classical geopolitics teaches that the main focus must remain where the primary threat lies. Western Europe may no longer be the centre of global politics, but it remains the crucial frontier, the dividing line between Russia and American power.”
M.K. Bhadrakumar is a former diplomat. He was India’s ambassador to Uzbekistan and Turkey. Views are personal.
Thisarticle originally appeared on Indian Punchline.
The views expressed are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of Consortium News.
President Trump is of that sort who cannot see why scoring a field goal when you’re down by fifteen in the fourth quarter isn’t really a huge victory for your side.
If he is smart enough to understand that the deal cannot be exploited until the SMO is resolved, he may find he has some incentive to push the necessary pills down the Knotsy’s throats. Count me not sanguine.
This conflict has indeed united the Russian Federation in a manner unseen since WWII, while strengthening the Russian economy and enlarging Russian’s presence on the world stage. I see no reason for President Putin to lose resolve at this point. He has made patriotic issues of the SMO’s objectives; Mother Russia doesn’t like it when her boys back down. Pitchforks and torches and so on.
Ukraine is not and never will be a “Praetorian guard of European security with by far the most powerful army (and battle-hardened, too) in the continent.” Ukrainian forces are in retreat on all fronts. At the current casualty rate there will be no testosterone left to breed a new generation. “Battle hardened” my old socks. Battle Smashed is the truth … When the USA puts armed forces in Ukraine they will die. Everything Mr Trump has said about “saving lives” will be false. Russia will prevail in any, and every, direct conflict with the USA in Europe. Ukraine will be neutral or it will cease to exist.
They say that most of the mineral wealth is in the russian speaking area (where the ukrainiens killed ukrainiens just because they spoke russian – see ‘roses have thorns’).
Now, if the usa takes over the mineral rights of the ukraine they will also want, sooner or later, the mineral wealth of the russian speaking area which by election has joined russia.
could that spark another war? a WW III? a nuclear war?
europe is econimically weak due to the sanctions and spending money on ukraine for ‘the security of europe’.
whenever a country/ies were in trouble they found a reason to go to war, example – austria and WW 1, the slavic states all wanted independence from austria.
Trump’s “minerals deal” with Ukraine is second only to his “Gaza deal” with Israel to turn that into the “Riviera of the Mediterranean.” We’re still waiting on the “Greenland deal”, the “Panama deal”, the “Canada deal” and who knows what else. Is there a possible “Vatican deal” in the works? Inquiring minds want to know.
The same CIA fantasy. Its easier to sign papers with UA or AF than to ceasefires with RU because the West has all the leverage over the proxy UA and zero over the RU. Kiev has already signed several accords. But Trump should read the RU’s 2021 ultimatum. For the good of the UA.
As if sludging the crops isn’t bad enough, now we can have a bit of Chernobyl contamination as well. Or who knows what sorts of other leaks from nuclear power plants contaminate everything. It’s not like they tell us.
goodness gracious me..dream on Mr former diplomat…your personal view is rather ill informed to say the least..needs a reality check desperately..ludicrous any which way..the finest hour of a nation is the three time (to GB, the EU, and to top it off US) sell out of national resources by an illegitimate, corrupt, criminal regime?
I agree with Alan, Vera, and JonnyJ. Russia is a great and stable country. The US and Ukraine are run by liars and are not, and probably never will be stable, let alone great.
“Zelensky has emerged as a statesman of reckoning…” Ok, right.
The Empire Strikes Back (again)?
Interesting and different take. Remains to be seen. If it is a raw minerals deal – I’ve heard the contrary, just oil, gas, aluminum – it will take substantial investment to plunder. And the Chinese have the market cornered already and can easily undercut price. Wonder who’d be willing to invest and try to compete? Or would it be another money laundering scheme.
I doubt that Russia gives a damn whether or not the United States recognizes Crimea as belonging to Russia. Russia does not need American approval or assent to something that is a fact on the ground. As for the minerals deal, as has already been suggested, it is a fool that puts even an ounce of trust in America’s word. Russia certainly won’t, and therefore it will continue fighting until its security is not in jeopardy.
I feel sorry for Ukraine…I feel sorry for Ukrainians…when they find out how America has screwed them royally. Do business with America and you’ll end up burning…not just your fingers, your hands too. :-(
Finest hour of Ukrainian nationalism? Quite the contrary, the Zelensky puppet govt. is illegitimate. How can anyone make an agreement (treaty) with an illegitimate govt. in the first place? Ukraine is basically a corrupt, failed state, that is obviously propped up by massive injections of loans and weapons.
The Russians have been outlining their position for years, but few listen. The demands of the DT2 regime have been rejected several times by Russia. It aint gonna happen.
This article attributes too much faith in the competence of the DT2 regime, the US is not holding any cards and has only displayed ignorance on most topics concerning. The military reality “on the ground” is what matters. Crimea is already part of Russia, and is not negotiable. There is no carrot to offer.
The “minerals deal” is largely political theater, and an excuse to continue shipping more weapons to Ukraine (more subsidy for the US MICIMATT) The capital outlays and long time-frames for extracting the mineral wealth make the “deal” (even if rubber-stamped by the Senate) mostly for pubic consumption. What is clear though is the odious and fraudulent debt that Ukraine has accumulated can not be repaid. Rump Ukraine will be foreclosed on by Western creditors and what is left of public infrastructure will be privatized and sold off. Hardly a victory, but a grand betrayal.
Meanwhile, the sanctions on Russia continue, the weapons shipments continue and the war continues. Wishful thinking won’t change that. (While the “peace” pres. bombs Yemen, imposes siege warfare on Venezuela, Cuba, and engages in military provocations and trade wars with China). US foreign policy, despite the blah blah and mass media drama, changes very little.
@JonnyJames Great comment
Russia seems much better placed to continue this war for the next 3-5 years than the Ukrainians and their backers/allies. The Russo-Ukrainian war has severely damaged Ukraine as a nation & economy, so as a war objective “Destruction of your enemy” has been achieved which can always be counted as a win (however much horror that has inflicted on your opponent)…this mirrors how the USA wages war (e.g. North Korea, Vietnam, Iraq etc).
The only threat the West has left is increased intervention (as Russia assumes the West will continue to arm the Ukrainians until the end).
We must publicly discuss amongst ourselves direct Western intervention & its pro/cons as currently it appears likely that this will be pushed for by the West or the EU & Ukraine as the war drags on and as Russia continues to capture more of Ukraine, with potential break-throughs in areas or key-cities threatened. Remember most of our governments will act on their accord in terms of military matters with the public having no real say.
I doubt however that Ukraine or the EU etc will agree to any peace in much favour of Russia, and in a year or two they are likely to be able to support the Ukrainians to a much greater degree so this will likely drag on for many more years. Neither the West or Russia are really suffering the consequences of this proxy war so aren’t strongly compelled to finish it…it feels like its more like the perpetual war between the 3-superpowers of 1984
The “West” has already intervened. The West started this war. Russia will finish it … (ps. It isn’t a proxy war for Russia).
True. This article asserts Russian failure in Ukraine yet Russian now controls all the Russian speaking sections of the country, roughly 20 percent of Ukraine, the protection of which was the purpose of the special military operation plus the fact Ukraine will never be part of NATO.
I was going to comment, but you have summarized the actual realities of the situation, as opposed to the delusional fantasies of a Western bloc in irreversible decline, perfectly.