Will China Take Lead on Global Warming?

As the American Right continues to reject climate-change science, China is showing signs of taking the lead in developing cutting-edge technology to combat global warming, writes ex-CIA analyst Paul R. Pillar.

By Paul R. Pillar

A common argument made by some of those opposed to the United States reducing its greenhouse gas emissions — even by opponents who do not try to deny the fact of human-induced global warming — is that U.S. action would be useless as long as other major emitting countries continue their polluting ways.

This argument received a sharp blow when the Obama administration reached an agreement with the biggest emitter — China — about reducing emissions from coal-fired power plants, which have been the largest single component of China’s poisoning of the atmosphere.glacierdisappears

This week, meeting on the fringes of the nuclear security summit in Washington, Presidents Obama and Xi Jinping reaffirmed their seriousness on the issue by pledging to sign the Paris agreement on climate change on the first day this multilateral accord opens for signature. President Xi said, “As the two biggest economies, China and the U.S. have a responsibility to work together.”

This statement comes in the same week as release of yet another scientific study underscoring the gravity of the global warming problem. An analysis published in Nature shows how if current rates of emission continue, collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet may be even more rapid than according to previous estimates that were based on a less thorough study of the physical collision of ice and water at the edges of the shelf.

More rapid melting of this ice means a correspondingly rapid rise in sea level. To put this result in personally and politically meaningful terms, it means it is within the lifetime of children as well as grandchildren of politicians in office today that substantial parts of coastal U.S. cities — and not just those parts of Miami Beach that already get flooded regularly and where streets have had to be raised — will be under water.

As the New York Times article about the Obama-Xi declaration notes, there is more reason to worry about the United States, rather than China, fulfilling its pledges on the subject. The worry is not about the Obama administration’s commitment but rather about domestic political obstacles outside the administration’s control.

The immediate impediment as far as coal-fired power plants are concerned was erected in February when the conservative majority on the Supreme Court, in a burst of judicial activism in a 5-4 decision, took the unprecedented step of halting implementation of a federal regulation (in this case from the Environmental Protection Agency) before it was even reviewed by a federal appeals court.

Clear action by Congress would obviate this kind of judicial interference, but such action seems unlikely as long as Congress is controlled by a majority whose resistance to saving the planet goes beyond arguments about whether other countries would do their share. That resistance involves an attitude toward scientific knowledge on the subject that lies somewhere between medieval alchemy and the Scopes monkey trial.

And the resistance is rooted in narrow pecuniary interests. Presidential candidate Ted Cruz’s apparent fealty to ignorance on this subject, for example, probably is more a matter of fealty to the coal-mining industry.

Many of the same politicians who oppose the Obama administration’s efforts to arrest climate change also regularly bewail Mr. Obama’s supposed abandonment of “leadership” in the world. If the resistance to U.S. action on emissions persists, then China will be the state that, head and shoulders above the United States, will be exercising global leadership on the issue. And this will not be a matter of China just making sacrifices.

To the contrary, as an expert on Chinese climate policy at the World Resources Institute points out, “The understanding is that China is doing this for its own sake. It’s good for their environment; it’s good for their economy.” China has made a major commitment in its latest economic plan to expand greatly its use of renewable energy sources in place of fossil fuels.

So China will be moving ahead with the next generation of energy technology to power its economy. Meanwhile, if political resistance here doesn’t abate, the United States will be stuck with digging out of the ground and burning the residue of primeval muck — with an atmospheric result that continues to make the planet less habitable.

To candidates who like to talk so much about U.S. leadership, we should ask, what sort of leadership is this?

Paul R. Pillar, in his 28 years at the Central Intelligence Agency, rose to be one of the agency’s top analysts. He is now a visiting professor at Georgetown University for security studies. (This article first appeared as a blog post at The National Interest’s Web site. Reprinted with author’s permission.)


4 comments for “Will China Take Lead on Global Warming?

  1. AndJusticeForAll
    April 3, 2016 at 7:44 am

    i think it is appropriate to include in this article some real numbers rather then speculate about Chinese moves and leadership. The analysis should include trends in power generation, amount of power produced by coal vs other sources, quality of air, amount money spent on environment monitoring, to name a few. It would be important to see how much effort is coming from private industry vs enforcement by governments local or federal. Some numbers would suggest Chinese only talk. For example, air quality around China is so poor that equipment using air that works fine in other parts of the world without issues fails.

  2. Drew Hunkins
    April 3, 2016 at 5:13 pm

    The demonization of China by Washington and the Dali Lama cult is dangerous to say the least.

    To take the moral equivalency down to what any literate 4th grader can understand (but for some reason vast swaths of the United States population is quite simply unable to grasp): imagine for a moment if China had myriad war ships surrounding the BosWash corridor of the United States, out in the Atlantic Ocean, primed and ready with fighter jets, etc! Comment is superfluous.

    China may not remain a stoic punching bag forever. As Washington encircles China and wades into its territorial waters there could be a terrifying backlash that could unleash the dogs of war.

  3. Oz
    April 4, 2016 at 10:05 am

    China has an advantage over the U.S., in that they have not succumbed to a cultural phobia about nuclear energy. China can reduce its production of CO2 by massively switching to nuclear energy, and they will not need to impose energy austerity upon their population. The U.S., on the other hand, seems to be flirting with the German-style idiocy of trying to run an economy on primitive “sustainable” energy technologies such as solar and wind power, which in practice means a tremendously expensive, unreliable and overstressed energy grid, plus a huge importation of energy from neighboring countries.

    • Zachary Smith
      April 4, 2016 at 11:03 am

      From the wiki:

      In 2016, China became the world’s largest producer of photovoltaic power, at 43 GW installed capacity.

      Why aren’t the Chinese doing even more? I don’t know, but I can speculate. Possibly they have some local versions of the Koch Brothers. There may be strategic implications about which I’m not aware – possibly the photovoltaic installations are vulnerable to an “accidental” US EMP explosion above China. Kind of like the “accidents” the US keeps having with bombs blowing up hospitals.

      Speaking of the swinish Kochs, they and their buddies have been working very hard to prevent or delay renewable installations. Even to the extent of using “trade treaties” to halt a photovoltaic installation in India.


      Why on earth do you suppose coal companies in the US are steadily going bankrupt? It’s because renewables already can produce electricity more cheaply!

      Either you have no idea how dangerous nuclear power is, or you don’t care. Fukushima has been (and remains) an enormous disaster which continues to grow. I’ve seen it described as an ongoing nuclear war — without the exploding bombs.

      You really do need to expand your horizons beyond Big Nuclear propaganda.

Comments are closed.