Seeking Failure in Iran Nuke Talks

America’s influential neocons cite the lack of progress in Iranian nuclear talks as reason for more sanctions and more threats, but the real problem is the West’s unwillingness to reward Iran’s concessions with meaningful relaxation of sanctions and threats, says ex-CIA analyst Paul R. Pillar.

By Paul R. Pillar

As the nuclear talks with Iran hover in a sort of holding pattern with meetings below the senior level, there seems to be no end to advice from those saying the only chance of success is the exertion of pressure, more pressure and nothing but pressure.

That makes about as much sense as, when encountering a door that needs to be pulled to open and having failed to open it by pushing, we respond by simply pushing harder.

Iran and its neighbors. (Graphic by Aquarius.geomar.de)

The latest such advice is in an op-ed from Michael Singh of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. The West has given its best shot as far as sanctions are concerned, says Singh, and the sanctions by themselves are not sufficient and are not likely to be sufficient even given the passage of more time.

Well, he’s right about that. But taking Singh at his word that his objective is to achieve compromise at the negotiating table, he gives not the slightest hint of recognition of what needs to be brought to that table for compromise to happen.

Here’s the relevant key concept from Sanctions 101: we induce the government that is the target of our sanctions to concede by getting it to understand that we will continue to punish it if it does not concede and will stop punishing it if it does. (Or, more incrementally, that we will start reducing the punishment if the other side starts conceding.) It’s really that simple.

And the story of stasis in the nuclear talks is also pretty simple. The Iranians have made it clear they are willing to make the key concession about no longer enriching uranium at the level that has raised fears about a “break-out” capability in return for sanctions relief. But the P5+1 have failed to identify what would bring such relief, instead offering only the tidbit of airplane parts and the vaguest of suggestions that they might consider some sort of relief in the future.

The Iranians are thus left to believe that heavy pressure, including sanctions, will continue no matter what they do at the negotiating table, and that means no incentive to make more concessions.

If the oil sanctions aren’t enough, what other pressure does Singh say should be used? One is “bolder” efforts, whatever that means, to oust the Assad regime in Syria, and regardless of whatever implications that may have for escalation of that conflict.

Another is an ill-defined reference to “cultivating Iranians outside the narrow circle around” the supreme leader or “providing support to dissidents” in Iran. No mention is made of how to get around the inherently counterproductive aspect of outside efforts to manipulate internal Iranian politics, or how one more indication that regime change is the ultimate Western objective is supposed to make the current regime more interested in making concessions.

Finally, Singh calls for more military saber rattling — as if the threat of a military attack is supposed to make the Iranians less, rather than more, interested in a nuclear deterrent to protect themselves from such attacks. That makes as much sense as pushing yet again on the “pull” door.

We probably should not take the purveyors of such advice at their word. Surely at least some of them, including probably Singh, are smart enough to understand the basics of Sanctions 101. Their objective evidently is not success at the negotiating table but instead the indefinite perpetuation of the Iranian nuclear issue for other reasons or the checking off of a box on a pre-war checklist.

The Obama administration, by contrast, would welcome negotiating success but evidently has calculated, perhaps mistakenly, that it would be too politically damaging domestically to bring to the negotiating table what would be necessary to achieve success. The administration is correctly attempting to ward off destructive Israeli action, although it is uncertain whether keeping the negotiating process trundling along at its current pace and trajectory for a few more months would be sufficient to do that.

And yes, Governor Romney, if we are concerned about what would be most damaging to U.S. interests in the Middle East, the prospect of a new war begun by the state most capable of dragging in those interests is more worth worrying about than an Iranian nuclear weapon (which such a war would not prevent anyway and would be more likely to encourage).

Paul R. Pillar, in his 28 years at the Central Intelligence Agency, rose to be one of the agency’s top analysts. He is now a visiting professor at Georgetown University for security studies. (This article first appeared as a blog post at The National Interest’s Web site. Reprinted with author’s permission.)

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9 comments on “Seeking Failure in Iran Nuke Talks

  1. incontinent reader on said:

    What we need from both Obama and Romney is strength of character and sober judgment to listen to the advice of Intelligence and Foreign Policy experts like Prof Pillar and the Leveretts. Just as with Nixon and China, the opportunity here exists to cut a major creative geopolitical deal that could short circuit the problem and advance the interests of all the players, and the world generally. The question is whether there is the will to do so.

    Unfortunately, Obama right now is locked into policies dictated by those neocon think tanks which represent the very interests that seem to control his own political destiny, so the fear is that for political reasons he could push the button for a new war at any time. Moreover, Hillary’s ever increasing threats to the Russians and Chinese make one wonder how much she is bluffing or not. Certainly, if she continues in this mode and the President doesn’t follow through, these will have been idle threats that will reduce the nation’s credibility, and she will look like a paper tigress; but if the President does follow through, setting aside the carnage and destruction it would cause, it will seriously weaken the position and future prospects of the United States in the world, whatever the short term military results.

    Romney has similarly tied himself to those same interests, yet, if he really is the son of George Romney, and if elected will be willing to exercise power without undue influence, he could make a difference in the world. Unfortunately, right now, to protect his flank he has had to show allegiance to AIPAC, and has done so by mouthing their words and assembled a foreign policy team with some of the worst of the GWBush team, and that means that while we may hope for better, we cannot realistically expect it.

  2. Hillary on said:

    “neocon think tanks which represent the very interests that seem to control his own political destiny”

    Jewish American Billionaires fund these think thanks to promote Israeli policy.

    The so called “Jewish Vote” that US Administrations need to surrender to.

    The Zionist Billionaires Who Control Politics.

    http://www.henrymakow.com/koch.html

  3. The term “neocons” is very misleading. According to Israeli daily Ha’aretz, the great majority of “neocons” is Zionist Jews. American Jewish blogger, Roger Tucker, prefer to use the term “Zioncons” or “Israel-Firsters” for the politicians who try to use American forces to fight Israel’s proxy wars in the Muslim world.

    The Ziocons know that no Iranian government will dare to stop country’s enrichment plant. In 2010, Japan offered to enrich uranium for Iran – and Japan was punished with the Fukushima nuclear disaster.

    Pepe Escobar painted the true mood in his July 7 article by saying: “Let’s start sledgehammer style. Iran won’t crack. Iran won’t crack. Iran won’t crack”.

    http://rehmat1.com/2012/07/10/iran-will-never-submit-to-zog-pressure/

  4. borat on said:

    herr hillary and her rehmat: the neo nazi darlings using goebbels type propaganda as usual without any protestation from this site.

  5. Frances in California on said:

    Does no one recognize that the people making the loudest noises over Iran all have “special interests” at stake, none of which have anything to do with either the well-being of Iranian citizens much less American ones?